Key Matches in the Key Races: Alternative K League 1 Final Day Preview | OneFootball

The 2025 Hana Bank K League 1 season reaches the final day, and it's one that still has the relegation battle to conclude, the race for the runner-up spot, AFC Champions League qualification, as well as who will finish as top scorer and top assist maker. Final B games kick off at 2 PM KST on Sunday 30th November, with Final A games kicking off at 4:30 PM.

Don't miss theofficial K League 1 Round 38 preview here...

Race for Runners-up

Gimcheon Sangmu (3rd) vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen (2nd)

Daejeon Hana Citizen have their K League 1 runner-up destiny in their own hands, needing only to draw on the final day. As luck would have it, or the K League fixture generator perhaps, Citizen meet their main rivals for second in Round 38. Gimcheon, despite losing all of the players they began the season with, have done well to pick up a couple of important wins in Final A - a 3-2 win over champions Jeonbuk and a 3-1 victory over FC Seoul. It means they are just a point behind Daejeon.

The Purples began Final A with back-to-back wins but are without a win in two heading into the final day. A 3-1 loss to Jeonbuk in Round 36 was followed by a tame 1-1 draw at home to Gangwon. Daejeon have had the upper hand in this fixture of late, earning two wins and a draw this season. The last meeting in Gimcheon ended in a 2-0 Daejeon win.

The two teams are the second and third top scorers in the division, with the army side firing in 59 times and Daejeon 55. Gimcheon have scored seven in their last five matches but haven't kept a clean sheet during that time, despite ranking third in the division for clean sheets overall with 12; Daejeon have managed 10 goals in their last five and have managed just two clean sheets in their last 18 matches. Interestingly, the Purples have kept four clean sheets on the road this season, and two of those came against Gimcheon.

Second place would signal a record finish in K League 1 for Gimcheon, while Daejeon are set to record their best-ever finish to a season regardless, second would secure a place in the league phase of the AFC Champions League Elite and first qualification for continental qualification since 2001, and via league positioning for the first time.

[READ: K League 1 Round 37 Wrap-up]

Relegation Battle

Suwon FC (10th) vs. Gwangju (7th)

Gwangju FC are safe, butSuwon FC are anything but. The Castle Park club, though, still have the chance to move out of the bottom three and into complete safety with a win on Sunday at home to the Griffins. Last weekend's 1-0 away win over FC Anyang, coupled with Ulsan HD losing 2-0 away to Gwangju, meant that the gap with the Horangi in ninth is down to just two points. Suwon's superior goals scored total of 51 compared to Ulsan's 42 also means that a Suwon win and a Ulsan draw would see the former safe.

Suwon's win over Anyang ended a run of five without one and could just serve as the confidence boost Kim Eun-jung's men needed. Gwangju's league campaign is as good as over, with attention turning to the Korea Cup Final against Jeonbuk on December 6th. With so much at stake for Lee Jung-hyo and his Gwangju side, attention will be on what sort of lineup he fields on the final day.

For Suwon, Castle Park is a fortress with seven of their 11 wins this season coming at home, and just six of their 11 losses have come on their own patch. Meetings in Suwon this season, though, have been mixed with Gwangju winning 4-2 in September and Suwon winning 2-1 in July.

Table Movement

5th and 6th

FC Seoul 49 points, Gangwon FC 49 points

Fifth placecould be enough for a place in the AFC Champions League Two on account of army side Gimcheon Sangmu currently sitting in the top four. However, this would depend on whether Jeonbuk win the Korea Cup. Fifth, then, is something worth fighting for. FC Seoul and Gangwon are both locked on 49 points, but Seoul's 49 goals scored total compared to Gangwon's 36 places them in the driving seat. The capital club, though, are away to champions Jeonbuk on the final day, while Gangwon are away to a Pohang side that's already sealed fourth place.

7th and 8th

Gwangju FC 51 points vs. FC Anyang 48 points, but with more goals scored

It will matter very little in the grand scheme of things, but both Gwangju FC and FC Anyang will want to end the season as the 'kings of Final B.' For Gwangju, it would represent a two-place improvement on last season, having finished ninth in 2024. For Anyang, finishing well clear of the bottom three and has the best team in Final B, a bottom half that has heavily backed clubs in Ulsan HD and Jeju SK, would represent a very good first season in K League 1. Both teams face sides currently fighting tooth and nail to stay in the division. Gwangju are away to Suwon FC while Anyang are heading to Daegu.

[INTERVIEW: Han Ka-ram: 'We want to be Final B kings']

Golden Boot

Pablo Sabbag, Jeon Jin-woo, Lee Ho-jae, Bruno Mota

Pablo Sabbag is on 17 goals for the season, two clear of Jeon Jin-woo and Lee Ho-jae, and three clear of Mota. It would mean that Jeon and Lee must score hat-tricks to become the golden boot winner this season, while Mota would need to do even more.

Sabbag is just one goal shy of matching Suwon's record goal scorer in a single top-flight season, Lars Veldwijk, who got 18 in 2021, 15 pre-split, and three post-split in Final A. The Syrian international has scored just once from three appearances against Gwangju this season (combined xG 1.23, combined xGOT 1.18). Data analysis gives Sabbag a 32% chance of scoring in Round 38.

Lee Ho-jae has a combined xG of 0.79 and a combined xGOT of 1.36 against Pohang's Round 38 opponent Gangwon, having scored two in two against them. Data analysis has given the 25-year-old a 49% chance of scoring.

Jeon Jin-woo hasn't scored against Jeonbuk's Round 38 opponents FC Seoul this season, but earned a combined xG of 1.06 and a combined xGOT 0.62 in two appearances. The winger has a 26.7% chance of scoring against the capital club.

Bruno Mota has two goals from three appearances against Daegu this season, for a combined xG of 1.16 and a combined xGOT of 0.59. He has a 17.9% chance of scoring against the Sky Blues, mainly down to the low xGOT value.

[READ: Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Seongnam FC Playoff Preview]

Top Assist Maker

Lee Dong-gyeong (12) vs. Cesinha (12)

Realistically, the top assist maker award is down to Lee Dong-gyeong of Ulsan and Cesinha of Daegu, both on 12. However, both have missed the last couple of games through injury, and although Lee is said to be in contention for Ulsan's Round 38 clash with Jeju, Cesinha remains touch-and-go. This particular race may already be sewn up, and one that ends in a draw.

Lee has faced Jeju twice this season, scoring one and assisting one while in the colours of Gimcheon. Cesinha has faced Anyang twice but was unable to register a goal or an assist in either game. Looking at the number of chances the players created and their expected assists value (xA), it would appear that Lee Dong-gyeong has a better chance of finishing as K League 1's top assist maker.

Lee Dong-gyeong

Cesinha

Total chances created vs. Anyang: 5 (0, 5)

xA vs. Anyang: 0.89 (0.13, 0.76)