La Liga Tips: Goal-hungry Kylian Mbappe to drive hampered Real Madrid | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Mbappé went goalless during the international break, but is finding his feet in La Liga

Ahead of La Liga's resumption, Jamie Kemp takes a look across three fixtures on MD5, including Real Madrid's important away trip to San Sebastian to face Real Sociedad...

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Sevilla v Getafe - Sat, 17:30

After a difficult start to the season for Sevilla and new coach Garcia Pimienta, things aren't about to get any easier. With pressure already piling on and frustration growing at the Ramon Sanchz Pizjuan, Getafe are far from a convenient opponent with the situation they're in.

As La Liga's chief antagonisers, Jose Bordalas' side are experts in orchestrating the type of game their opponents don't want to play. Through cutting the rhythm of play, launching direct football any time they can, and aggressive pressure without the ball, Getafe might be the most uncomfortable side to face in all of Spanish football. They'll be well aware Sevilla are in a nervous state too, likely only enhancing their approach.

That's not to play down Getafe as an anti-football side either. To analyse their performances so far, Bordalas' side remain awfully difficult to beat and cause trouble against. In fact, according to your standard data and advanced metrics, they've been the best defensive team in La Liga this season

Getafe have only allowed four shots on target in three games this term, while their average of 0.2 xG conceded per game is comfortably the best in the division so far. They only goal they've shipped so far came in their season opener, with Athletic's Oihan Sancet curling one in from outside the box. As for quality chances, they've been very scarce.

I won't go all the way and back Getafe to win at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, which remains a difficult place to go under any circumstances, but I do believe in their capacity to take a result there. With the turbulence surrounding Sevilla and the fact their xG difference is currently hovering below zero (-0.52), the ingredients are there for a home side that look unsure of themselves falling into Getafe's many traps.

In a low-scoring affair, I'll take the visitors to avoid defeat and further fuel what could soon be a crisis for Sevilla.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid - Sat, 20:00

The first stop in previewing this fixture is to lay bare the injury situations on both sides. Eder Militao and Aurelien Tchouameni are both expected to miss out for Real Madrid, removing two of the main players in the spine of their team, and likely forcing Dani Carvajal to have to vacate right back and play at centre back. On top of that, we already know Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, Dani Ceballos and David Alaba are all unlikely to feature.

As for Real Sociedad, they're expected to be missing a similar number/quality of player by their own respective standards. Talisman Mikel Oyarzabal (and scorer of the winning goal at EURO 2024) is nursing an injury, creative midfielder Brais Mendez is likely to be out, and among a handful of other absences, starting right back Hamari Traore suffered a season-ending injury on the eve of the international break.

All in all, it'd be fair to say neither side are coming into this clash in particularly good condition. Add in a raft of internationals returning to club football - including many coming back from South America in Real Madrid's case - and we might be looking at a pretty diluted version of an otherwise tasty fixture.

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Considering the upheaveal on both sides, I'm expecting we'll see more goals than we usually do when Real Sociedad are involved. And along with the condition of their team, they've not defended anywhere near their usual levels so far this season, ranking 12th for xG conceded through the first four rounds (5.06).

In a game with a makeshift vibe and potentially ragged structures, this should be one where Kylian Mbappe comes to the party. The Frenchman has been devouring shot attempts so far (26 in four La Liga games), and after his brace against Real Betis last time out, look for him to seize upon a situation where coherent defending may be short.

Girona v Barcelona - Sun, 15:15

Girona did the double over Barcelona in La Liga last season, a remarkable and unique achievement in the club's history given their proximity. Barcelona - the long held force in Catalunya - were dispatched by the historically much smaller side, and with Girona playing the superior, more stylish football in the process.

They won both games by the same 4-2 scoreline, in what was the only time this century a team have scored 4+ goals home and away against Barcelona in a single La Liga campaign.

It truly was spellbinding stuff from Girona last term, but their chances of repeating anything close to it this time round look decidedly slim. In short, Girona are weaker (although they remain a lovely footballing side) and Barcelona appear to be in a much stronger position, with Hansi Flick's project getting off to a fine start.

Four games is a small sample size - and it's far from enough to tell us who's going to win the title this season - but Barcelona have been La Liga's cream of the crop so far. Coming into MD5, they've won four from four and already racked up a +10 goal difference (13 scored, three conceded).

On top of that, the underlying numbers look especially dominant. Flick's side have racked up 11.4 xG and only conceded 2.9 in return. That margin of +8.2 in terms of xG difference is essentially double that of any other team bar Real Madrid, and there are only four teams in the division who are on +2 or more heading into the fifth round.

As for Girona, they're one of those four teams, with Michel's side at +3 through their first four games (6.6 for and 3.6 against). It's not quite the levels of dominance they achieved last term, but it's still been a good start by their renewed and realistic ambitions this term.

These are two high-powered attacks, but Barcelona look the better package. I'll take the away side to win here in a game where both sides get on the scoresheet.

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