La Liga Tips: Villarreal and Alex Baena to frustrate leaders Barcelona | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Marcelino has rejuvenated the hope at Villarreal

Jamie Kemp returns to preview three fixtures on MD6 in La Liga, including a recommendation for leaders Barcelona to drop points on the road...

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Osasuna v Las Palmas - Sat, 15:15

Las Palmas will make the trip to Pamplona on Saturday with as urgent a need as anyone in La Liga to get a result on matchday six. Under new boss Luis Carrion, the islanders have failed to win any of their first five matches this term (D2 L3), suffering defeats in each of the last two. After their defeat to Athletic Bilbao last weekend, Carrion was notably annoyed with both his team's performance and the general lack of energy.

The problem for Las Palmas, at least as far as Saturday's game goes, is that they've struggled away from home this year. Since winning their opening away game of 2024 at Rayo Vallecano in January, they've not won on any of their last 10 trips, suffering defeats in seven of those (D3). They've only scored one goal across their most recent five.

With the added complications of having to travel from the Canary Islands over to mainland Spain for every away game, if Las Palmas are to stay up this season then it seems they're going to have to be very good in their home games. At this rate, they can't count on getting much on the road.

As for Osasuna, El Sadar has been their refuge. They were plenty competitive there under previous boss Jagoba Arrasate, and new coach Vicente Moreno has taken seven points from nine available in his first three home matches, winning each of the last two. It's a totally different story to their performances on the road, where Osasuna have lost both away trips this season, scoring just once and conceding seven times.

With the direct game Los Rojillos will propose, led by target man Ante Budimir, this is precisely the type of scenario in which Las Palmas' defence tends to struggle. I'll take Osasuna to win, along with 1+ shot on target for Budimir and electric winger Bryan Zaragoza, who should be the one to take the game to the visitors.

Getafe v Leganes - Sun, 13:00

If you're looking for free-flowing, rhythmic football in La Liga this weekend, you'd be best off avoiding this one. However, the good news is we can have a pretty good idea of how this game is going to look, and target some likely markets.

Getafe and Leganes have one win in 11 games between them in La Liga this season, and already look like two sides who are in fire-fighting mode. While the former are coming off an incredibly difficult summer in which their squad - in the eyes of many - has been left in an insufficient state for Getafe to aspire to anything more than survival, promoted Leganes look like a team light on resources, standing ahead of a long season.

For the moment, Getafe's dependability relies almost entirely on their defensive mettle. Without many attackers to rely on, and star striker Borja Mayoral only just returning from injury, Jose Bordalas has prioritised their defence as their best route to picking up points. Only Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid (two each) have conceded fewer goals than Getafe (4) so far, while they rank fifth in La Liga for xG against (0.99 per game).

As for the scoring side, both Getafe (0.7) and Leganes (0.79) currently rank in the bottom five teams for xG per game.

Between both team's defensive priority and lack of solutions in attack, their games have ended up being notably light on goals at both ends so far. Leganes have seen an average of two goals per match through their first five, while Getafe have seen a league-low 1.2 goals per game.

Along with under 2.5 goals per game, I'll add in 2+ fouls for Darko Brasanac and Juan Iglesias. The former has made the joint-most fouls in La Liga this term (15), and has a habit for making plenty of infringements without getting booked. Iglesias, meanwhile, has made 10 fouls in five appearances this season, and could have the tricky Enric Franquesa to deal with on his right side.

Villarreal v Barcelona - Sun, 17:30

One of the main reasons why Villarreal are picking up steam in the race for fourth this season, apart from being an evidently good team, is that their schedule is much lighter than many of their competitors. Even though we're only in September, that's already something that's going to come in to play here against Barcelona.

Hansi Flick's side may be in fine form, but this will be their third game of the week; Villarreal haven't played since last Saturday.

If we were to base it on pure performance in La Liga so far, then it's hard to look beyond Barcelona to keep winning. Their xG difference of +8.8 is tremendously dominant through five matches, while they've outshot their opponents by 61 in the same period - also the most of any team.

However, given Villarreal's positive results and the momentum behind them at this point, along with the aforementioned points on Barcelona's schedule, I like the value of backing the home side to be the first to take points off Hansi Flick's side this term. The Yellow Submarine have already scored three 90th minute winners in La Liga this season, such is the optimism and renewed sense of purpose in Marcelino's side.

If Villarreal are to take a result against Barcelona, then look no further than Alex Baena as the potential catalyst. He topped the assist charts in La Liga last season (14), and has assisted in two of his last three appearances this term. Not to mention, he packs a lethal shot once he gets around the penalty area.

What's more, a game against Barcelona is also one where Baena will be looking to impress, given the prospects of him moving on from Villarreal in coming years. Overall, I'll go with Villarreal to win or draw and the 23-year-old to score or assist at La Ceramica.

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