Liverpool v Qarabag: Visitors hold double chance appeal at 6/1 | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Stinch is back to preview Liverpool v Qarabag in the Champions League

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is back to preview Liverpool v Qarabag in the final round Champions League group stages on Wednesday night...

Liverpool v QarabagWednesday January 28, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

What's on the line?

It's the final round of the Champions League group stages as all 36 teams battle it out at the same time to qualify for the beginning of the knockout phase in the round of 32. Liverpool - 1/10 to win - currently sit in fourth with 15 points, two points clear of ninth and the play-offs, knowing that a victory will guarantee a place in the last 16, thus bypassing the playoff round, as well as a home second leg in any potential quarter-final tie. A draw would also be enough depending on results elsewhere. Indeed, based on the Opta super computer, Liverpool have a 91.9% to finish in top eight and an 8.1% chance to finish in the play-offs. Qarabag, 20/1 for the win, are impressively up in 18th on 10 points and are all but guaranteed a play-off spot unless results massively go against them. Opta rate them a 99.5% chance of finishing in the play-offs and just 0.5% chance of being eliminated. They could be a dangerous side given those circumstances.

Qarabag could be match odds value!

Given the above permutations, there is no way I could back Liverpool at 1/10, firstly given the short price and secondly given they don't need to win. Liverpool have already faltered 13 times at odds-on this season and in the Champions League have failed to win when 1/4 versus PSV and 4/7 versus Galatasaray. Qarabag at 20/1 could be a serious runner having already won in Benfica at 12/1 and beaten Frankfurt last time out. They've also held Chelsea at home when they were 7/1. Their 13 goals is the same amount as Inter and Manchester City!

Over/Under odds suggest goal heavy game

In terms of the Over/Under market, it's just 3/10 for Over 2.5 goals which is heavily influenced by Liverpool's match odds of 1/10. It essentially means the odds indicate Liverpool are expected to score 3.2 goals which will seem bordering laughable to anyone who has watched the Reds this season, particularly of late, where they have only managed to score three goals in three of their last 25 games! Over 2.5 goals has only won in six of their last 13 games as well, meaning there's no way we'd want to side with pro-goals bet at the odds, and with the potential of not needing to win.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Champions League preview

Key Qarabag attackers

Who are the dangermen for Qarabag? They tend to play a 4-2-3-1 with lone striker Camilo Duran who's scored four goals in the Champions League, coming against Frankfurt (x2), Benfica and Ajax. Right-winger/number 10 Leandro Andrade has three goals, again against impressive opposition in Chelsea, Benfica and Athletic Bilbao. Holding midfielder Marko Jankovic has two assists to his name and also takes penalties. Duran and Andrade are both 11/2 to score anytime, whilst Jankovic is 9/1 for an assist. We're almost spoilt for choice here and it can be a dangerous game trying to get all them onside, especially as Qarabag have had eight different scorers and six different players assist, plus not every goal requires an assist. I'd be tempted to back Duran to score given he's averaging 2.3 shots per-game to Andrade's 1.0 but the tipping point would be have him also on penalty duties.

Mark Stinchcombe's Liverpool v Qarabag best bet

Instead I think the best bet is to back Qarabag Double Chance at 6/1. It's essentially backing Liverpool not to win. Remember it's almost a free hit for Qarabag (99.5% chance of finishing in the play-offs) and there is the potential for Liverpool to come unstuck given with a point probably enough to guarantee their place in the top eight. Across all competitions, Liverpool have failed to win 17 of 34 games and that doesn't seem to be factored into the odds here.

Recommended bets

Back Qarabag Double Chance at 6/1

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.