Liverpool v Real Madrid: Diaz can star in 14/1 Bet Builder

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·27 de novembro de 2024

Liverpool v Real Madrid: Diaz can star in 14/1 Bet Builder

UEFA Champions League

Luis Diaz can strike

Vídeos OneFootball

Liverpool host Real Madrid in the glamour fixture of Wednesday night and Dave Tindall is honing in on Luis Diaz for the best bet...

Watch Football... Only Bettor Podcast - Champions League Special

Liverpool v Real Madrid

Liverpool on top at home and abroad

With occasional bursts of excellence and a healthy dose of doing enough/getting it done, Liverpool are absolutely flying.

With 31 points out of 36 and Manchester City and Arsenal tripping up repeatedly, they have a startling eight-point lead at the top of the Premier League.

And you'll also find Liverpool at the summit of the 36-team Champions League table after four wins out of four - those victories coming at home to Bologna (2-0) and Bayer Leverkusen (4-0) and away to Milan (3-1) and Leipzig (1-0).

Using the filter of home form, Arne Slot's team have won their last seven at Anfield after the shock 1-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest. They've played full halves and even longer not looking totally convincing but you can't argue with the bottom line: the Reds have played 18 matches in all competitions this season and won 16 of them.

If only three of their superstars would sign new contracts, everything in the garden of Liverpool would be perfect!

The real Madrid look to be coming back

After the shocking and major wobble of back-to-back heavy home defeats - 4-0 to Barcelona in El Clasico and 3-1 to Milan in this competition - Real Madrid have played themselves back into form.

They went into the international break on the back of a 4-0 home win over Osasuna and followed that with a 3-0 success at Leganes on Sunday.

That latter result came at a cost though as Vinicius Jr. suffered a leg injury. He's been a thorn in Liverpool's side in recent seasons, scoring the winner in the 2022 Champions League final and twice in the February 2023 meeting at Anfield when the Merseysiders took a 2-0 lead inside 15 minutes before Madrid ran riot to win 5-2.

The hosts will be more than happy they won't face him this time while Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, Rodrygo and Eder Militao are long-term injury absentees for Madrid.

With two wins and two losses, Los Blancos are only 18th in the elongated Champions League table so ideally need something here to avoid putting themselves under real pressure although history tells us they'll find a way through this qualifying round and then kick on big time at the business end. That's just what the record 15-time winners of this tournament do.

Real have ruled the roost v Reds

Liverpool are a shade of odds-on at 20/23 to rack up another win while Real Madrid and the Draw are both priced at 29/10.

Plenty will jump on the Reds at that price but there are reasons to be cautious.

Firstly, Liverpool are playing Manchester City on Sunday in a game more important than this one despite the obvious glamour of Real Madrid being in town.

Secondly, Real Madrid have had Liverpool's number in recent seasons. As well as beating them in two Champions League finals, they've been dominant in other rounds of this competition. The pair have played each other eight times between 2014 and 2023 and the score reads seven wins for Real Madrid and a draw. No other team has a record against Liverpool like that.

Finally, they're the only side in La Liga yet to lose on the road this season. In six matches, Carlo Ancelotti's men have won three and drawn three, conceding just four times.

Against all that, in their only away Champions League tie so far, they lost 1-0 to French side Lille.

Goal quotes could be too high

Despite all the attacking flair on show and the fact that his pair shared seven goals the last time they met at Anfield, three of the last four games between Liverpool and Real Madrid have featured goal counts of 0, 1 and 1.

Add in Real's tight defence on the road this season, the absence of usual Reds tormentor Vinicius Jr., Liverpool's comfortable position in the Champions League and the Reds perhaps having one eye on the weekend and a low-scoring contest is far from out of the question.

Ancelotti has found a way of negating this current Liverpool as an attacking force and that could be the case again, especially if the home side play it a little cautiously too - a something more likely under Slot than Klopp.

I do fancy a couple of goalscorer bets but backing Under 2.5 goals at an inflated 6/4 offers some insurance in a game that has the potential to slightly underwhelm.

Diaz bet is the way forward

Games against Real Madrid are a big deal for any player but perhaps even more so for a Spanish speaker.

And that's why Luis Diaz will feel a particular buzz about taking on this tournament's most successful ever side.

Diaz bagged a hat-trick in Liverpool's last home Champions League game - the 4-0 success over Bayer Leverkusen - after Slot opted to play him in a centre-forward role. And there could be a good chance the Dutch boss repeats that move here.

After appearing twice for Colombia in the international break, Diaz was rested for the 3-2 win at Southampton although came on in the 62nd minute and made quite an impact, just failing to slide home Darwin Nunez's cross before floating a great ball for Salah which the Egyptian slammed against the woodwork when on a hat-trick.

The energetic Nunez may be held back to give Manchester City's creaking defence an uneasy ride on Sunday in which case Diaz can reprise the role from which he netted three second-half goals against Leverkusen.

Diaz has nine goals in 17 games for Liverpool this season and, even more impressively, six in eight at Anfield.

On those numbers, the 5/2 for Diaz to score looks the best goalscorer bet of the night.

Salah to score or assist has been boosted to [Evens] which is another obvious play and all the noise (which he helped amp up after the trip to St Mary's) around his new contract seems to be inspiring him to play even better rather than affect his focus.

But a record of two goals and one assist in eight games against Madrid is pretty modest. I prefer to back him at home to Man City on Sunday given that he has 11 goals and six assists in 21 appearances when doing battle with Pep's men.

Consider Bellingham for Bet Builder

For Madrid, plenty will be attracted to goalscorer punts on Kylian Mbappe, who scored for PSG in his only other appearance at Anfield, and Jude Bellingham, who was heavily linked with Liverpool before his move to Spain.

Mbappe is 9/5 to score and Bellingham 7/2. Both were on the scoresheet away to Leganes at the weekend and Mbappe's tally of nine in 17 is exactly the same as Diaz's although the Liverpool man is playing at home and for the side fancied to win.

Bellingham had been firing blanks but has netted in his last two games - Osasuna and Leganes - so looks better value. Unless, of course, you think his main aim for this trip to Merseyside will be to further convince Trent Alexander-Arnold to join him in the Spanish capital. Trent, by the way, is still doubtful to start this one after his hamstring injury.

For Bet Builder players, Diaz and Bellingham both to score is just over 14/1 so let's add that into the staking plan.

Both scoring in a 1-1 draw would be the ideal outcome as it lands all our bets. If you want to specifically make that bet, we're talking a mighty 222/1.