Man Utd and the ‘science and mathematics’ of a Premier League title | OneFootball

There’s a lot of Arsenal fans defending their performance against Man Utd, who will win the Premier League title now.

It’s been a busy old Mailbox week so far. Keep them coming to theeditor@football365.com.

Why Man Utd will win the Premier League title

Now, I don’t want United supporters to get carried away, or to imbue anyone with false hope but actually – this just in – Manchester United will be crowned Premier League champions in 2025/26.

“No, Harry” I hear you shout, “put the hallucinogens down”

However this is no hot take, no mere crazy opinion or wind-up narrative – no no, this is science and mathematics, Son, and who are we to stand in the way of the good lord Numberwang?

Fact: There are currently 45 points left to play for in the Premier League

United, having relatively comfortably just beaten City and Arsenal (at the Emirates no less) back-to-back, should see their next 6 games before playing anyone near them in the league as 3 points in the bag, easy, they then take on a Villa at home who I was reliably informed they should have beaten at Villa Park, another 3 points for Carrick’s men I’m sure, with only really banana-skins at Chelsea and hosting Liverpool to stand in their way of a perfect back-9 – both eminently winnable games themselves given they’ve, y’know, beaten them both already this season.

Honestly, United could win their remaining 15 fixtures if you think about it – that is not only a literal possibility – it’s enough to win them the title. They only play 15 more games – no FA Cup 4th round, no draining League Cup 2nd Legs or Finals, no last-16 or quarters and beyond of a European trophy… just 15 winnable games over 17 weeks.

Arsenal, currently top, over the last three years hold an average points per game of 2.06 for their final 15 fixtures in the last 3 years – they’re only good to finish on 81 points – City? A much healthier 2.42 average, but that leads them to 82 points and sure, ahead of Arsenal (Sorry Arsenal supporters – GNev was right, warnings/signals/inevitabilities/etc) but crucially…

…behind United, who end the final game of the season on 83 points, ahead of Arsenal and City (but dependent on Villa) and possibly celebrating one of the biggest title turnovers (but importantly, not even THE biggest of its kind) riding a big Red bus around Manchester, grinning like Cheshire cats.

After all… Something something… anything less would be the greatest bottle job of all time… something something… targets change with opportunity.

Carrick for the big job, the sun will rise on Old Trafford again.

All the best, Harold Eduardino Hooler

P.S: Sorry for the spoilers if you were hoping to be surprised – it’ll still be fun watching it play out I’m sure.

State of the Premier League

I think the discussion about whether or not the league is the worst its ever been or the best its ever been (because nuance has all but vanished nowadays it seems) I think may be sorted by the following realisation:-

Almost every club but certainly ‘the big’ 6 or 8 has, this season, either been in a crisis, is in crisis, or is heading into or out of a crisis..

Not to mention the teams lower down being in or out of crisis as the result of any 1 match they are playing in or that a close rival is playing in.

Are Sunderland the only team all season not have have had the word crisis llinked with their name? Such a good start that even losing any number of games in a row and they will only be ‘reverting to the mean’ or something.. and possibly Fulham? Have they been in crisis?

It feels like every other club has at some point been in or out of crisis.. Arsenal apparently now heading into full bottle crisis – if you believe the headlines etc.

So from that I can only be led to believe that the sate of the league, with 18 teams in or out of crises at any given time, this must be about as bad as any top flight season has ever been..?

The top 3 can all get over 90pts this season (in theory) not sure how weak that would be. never done before…. (they won’t obvs.. but at the moment..)

Wolves seem suddenly unlikely to get the ‘nailed on’ worst team ever trophy… so not the worst

So in conclusion, with 18 teams in crisis – def the worst season ever, with not the worst of the worst teams and possible the highest ever pointed top 3 (that won’t happen – can you see where I’m going here) could be the strongest league ever……! Al – LFC – we are definitely as bad as we have been for a while and still European sports and a win from CL place (as are 8 or more teams still?) and yet are closer in points to Forest than Arsenal… says quite a lot I think.

Arsenal will be absolutely fine

Well, I did say before if we started losing I’d start worrying, so I suppose I should say something.

Arsenal will be fine. United were good value for the three points, but ultimately scored two worldies and one horrible mistake from Zubimendi. Had Cunha not scored that screamer, the narrative would have been two points dropped in a hard-fought but fair draw.

The ‘bad’ period before Mbuemo’s goal is really the main concern I have for this team – Arteta needs to urgently address the passivity we find ourselves in after we score; typically when we shift from going ahead to consolidating a lead. Even in games we comfortably saw out in the end, we’re always ropey straight after scoring; where our best form teams of the previous seasons could quickly double up with another (even against Villa earlier this year) there seems to be a real complacency/level drop that is plaguing us.

Similar thing with the equaliser, score a goal and we fail to reset, the team seemingly forgets we are now without a clear DM as Zubimendi has subbed out, get exposed by one loose ball in midfield and punished for it.

So not quite panic stations yet, sure it would be nice to sign a world class CF if one was available (as if they are there in the January window, come on people) and being less than 3pts ahead of City when we go to the Etihad would be concerning, but them getting a 2-0 at home to Wolves doesn’t mean they are magically fixed either.

Hopefully this is the kick up the backside the squad needs after three sleepwalking games in a row in the PL. Tom, (ever the optimist) Leyton

…Love to see the hyperbole come out after a bad result against United. Hopefully I can copy paste all of these snippets into one epic email about how Arsenal won’t win the league if they do and everyone will acknowledge that being kneejerk in football is silly (who am I kidding). We weren’t good, United scored 2 amazing goals. We didn’t deserve to win, there’s a lot more football to play, calm down folks. A few things I wanted to chat about though.

First, the narrative of United beating City and United. United were the better team, great tactics, outplayed and our harassed City. No mention of Haaland being terrible, just “stymied”. No discussions or commentary on City bottling the title/giving Arsenal the title on a platter. No lack of mentality. Nada. Just well done United.

The narrative of Arsenal and United. Arsenal have bottled it, they play awful football they don’t deserve it. Gyokeres is the worst striker ever seen. Arteta can’t coach an attack. They don’t have the mentality. Blah blah blah.

In both of these games I came to the same conclusion. This United team on paper is good, let them play what they are good at, quick 1 touch transitions and triangles, and they are a Champions League team. If you are a rigid structured control based team, this chaos is your kryptonite. I don’t understand how one team losing in one way a week ago can have such drastically different narratives today. Wild.

Secondly, the fallacy that Arsenal can’t beat big teams is genuinely ridiculous at this point. Arteta’s points per game against the big 6 in the last 3 seasons: 1.9 (22/23), 2.11 (23/24) and 2 (24/25). In the last 2 season they have beaten:

Real Madrid x2 (in a Champions League Quarter final, 2 wonder goals though) Bayern Munich (“Best team in Europe” at the time, beaten comfortably) PSG (top of Ligue 1 at the time) City (5-0) Atletico (comfortably) Inter Milan (Top of Serie A at the time)

Thirdly, Arteta can’t coach an attack/they are just set piece FC. Last 4 seasons’ non set-piece goals data please:

City – 246 Liverpool – 204 Arsenal – 196

With AI it’s just so easy to check, come on everyone… Add in set pieces for fun and City have scored 17 more goals than us in the last 4 seasons. Think about their 6 or 7 nil wins and let it all sink in.

Arteta needs to win a big trophy, he needs to come up with a plan B. But let’s not sit here on a Monday and pretend the world is ending because we narrowly lost to a big 6 team. Lose at Leeds, then you can go and grab your pitchforks. Rob A (annoyed that we now need to get something from the Etihad though) AFC

…Arsene Wenger was an aberration – a two-decade long aberration, but an aberration nonetheless.

Arsenal Football Club’s success was built on rock solid defences throughout our long and storied history.

Arsene’s attacking play was, and still is, unusual by Arsenal’s standards.

If Arteta delivers the title, I couldn’t give a tuppenny hoot how we play – 1-0 to the Arsenal until the end of the season would do me just fine.

Well done to United though. I never thought I’d say this, but it’s good to see them back – that’s the real United – it’s clear Carrick gets them.

Fortune favours the brave. Should have bigged up Eze, started him and benched Odegaard. Graham Simons, Gooner, Norf London

…Not that I really want to defend Arsenal’s performance, but was it really that bad? I didn’t think so.

Yes there was a lot of sterile possession but they moved the ball pretty well, and found it hard to break down Man Utd’s defence which, it should be said, had a very good day overall.

As a Man Utd fan, I’m not really sure I remember Man Utd creating that many clear chances from open play either and nor would I have expected them to do so against the league leaders at their home ground. The match I watched was a fairly tight game were both teams played some good football that was decided by two wonder goals, but if it had ended up 2-2 I don’t think it would have been a particularly unfair result.

I get that Arsenal are top of the league, but I don’t get the impression that anyone really thinks they’d beat the Man Utd team of ’08 or the Invincibles team, so why this attitude that they should be walking over teams pulling their pants down and scoring 5 of the best against a team that is, while in recovery from shite management at the very least expensively assembled and full of the talent that implies?

That Carrick in 2 games has got us looking like a competent team that resembles the riches it cost to assemble them is more an indication of how much they were underperforming under Amorim and, as Ian Watson points out, playing players in their positions and in a system designed around their qualities rather than trying to force them into your system is not even GSCE level geometry let alone rocket science.

I watched the game with my Arsenal supporting friend and I told him before the game I expected to lose but so long as we play ok and don’t just concede a sloppy goal or lose because players weren’t trying. If we lost because of a wonder goal, like the goal Henry scored against us that was the winner in 2000 then sometimes you just have to say “fair enough” and applaud the quality.

And even if Dorgu never scores another goal that good, it was a great finish. Same with Cunha’s goal. Sometimes, there doesn’t need to be an inquest or an indictment of the coach, sometimes you have to just applaud the football, because that’s why we’re all here right? We don’t only watch and play because we want to win every week but because football is fun and exciting, because we appreciate the skill and the ability required, and we can wish that we had been able to score goals like that in the playground. Daniel (no to blind faith in Carrick, yes to a proper recruitment process) Cambridge

…Nice to see the very measured reaction from the mailbox after another game where Arsenal dropped points. Let’s all calm down please. They are still 4 points ahead.

United needed 2 worldies to win this game. Dorgu will never score a better goal in his career (now watch him score a rabona from the halfway line after beating 6 players next week) and Cunha can probably only do that once in 20 attempts.

I’m a Chelsea fan and trust me, there are few things I want more than for Arsenal to bottle this league title. Unfortunately, I don’t think they won’t. Not because they’re this amazing team, but because I don’t think there’s any team that can catch them.

Aston Villa are blowing super hot this season and the regression monster will catch up with them soon enough. You can’t keep depending on goals from outside the box and all your players finishing better than Lionel Messi for an entire season. Injuries, especially in midfield, will also play their part eventually. They’ll definitely finish in the top 4 though. The gap between them and the rest is quite big when you consider all the congestion in the league table.

City have the best chance but I don’t think they’ll catch Arsenal either. This City team is just not good enough and the league is too strong for them to string their customary 10 straight wins.

I really hope I’m wrong and one of those teams eventually overtake them. That will be the bottling to top all bottlings in history. I’m not holding my breath though. Abdulazeez (looks like Linkedin Liam is really a fine ager of men. Listening to his linkedinspeak is a price I’m willing to pay if he can make us good again. Gary O’Neil is doing fine with Strasbourg too. Win-win for all parties involved), Bristol

Arsenal mostly just knackered

As an Arsenal fan, watching the game at the Emirates was tough and the team deserves all the criticism it gets losing to Man U. It’s games like this, that cement my feeling that I don’t believe we will win the league.

But one factor that is hardly being mentioned is that this was Arsenal’s 3rd game in the last 7 days whereas it was Man U’s first (they last played on 17th Jan).The Arsenal players were clearly knackered.

Hopefully Arteta plays the U-21s (and Norgaard) in midweek and this can reset the main players in the team mentally and physically.

Also we should have signed Semenyo to stimulate the attack, I’d been saying this to anyone who’d listen but obviously Arteta didn’t get the message!

Hoping these last few results are the kick up the ass, the team needs to get out of this funk. Izzy

How Carrick masterminded win over Arsenal

I’ve already read multiple pieces explaining how Arsenal undid themselves after taking the lead against United. That their integrated ‘bottle job’ nature was to blame for the ensuing poor performance and whilst there is doubtless some truth to this it completely ignores the one really good thing Carrick did to manage the game.

United had started very cautiously, staying compact and deep, no real press and very rigid positions. Though it’s understandable why Carrick setup this way it did allow Arsenal that precious field tilt that Arteta craves and United were completely hemmed in.

Against City Carrick had used straight central passes from Martinez into Bruno to help break through but Arteta was ready for those. He had Saliba follow Bruno and get tight when he was set to receive the pass then dispossess him. It worked very well and Bruno was getting frustrated as the midfield was swamped making him completely ineffective.

After Arsenal took the lead Carrick changed United’s tactic immediately, so quickly in fact that it must have been planned, ‘if we concede early we’re going to change to this so be ready’. Bruno and Mbeumo pressed the CBs high, Casemiro and Mainoo stepped up on their midfield, Dalot and Shaw started to jump on the wingers as soon as they received the ball. Caution was replaced with aggression and it unsettled Arsenal, forcing them to play under pressure and make passes across bigger spaces.

United started to win the ball higher up the pitch which not only led to scoring chances but meant they could hold possession and bring the back line higher, robbing Arsenal of their territorial dominance. Having Maguire and Martinez that high was a risk given their relatively sedate pace, especially with Casemiro dropping in between them to create a back three, but Arsenal had virtually no threat behind so it never became an issue.

Another well managed game from Carrick and another win against a historic rival. Same caveats as last week, let’s see where we are in 6-8 weeks before making any proper judgements. Dave, Manchester

Carrick v Amorim

Michael Carrick took 2 games to deliver back to back Premier League wins.

Ruben Amorim took 11 months, and only did it once in his total 14 months in charge.

Pretty Damning when you look at the level of opposition. The real test now is taking a minimum of 7 points from Fulham, Spurs and West Ham in the next 3. Shane Tallon, Man Utd, Dublin

…This morning’s mailbox had Dave (LFC – poor champions, but at least we are champions) write in stating “everyone else in the division can’t string two wins together.” Well Dave, I’d like to point out that Man Utd have, in fact, just strung two wins together!!

In all seriousness, Fulham will be far harder as our tactic of sitting back won’t work there. Long road ahead, and if wenger introduced the 4th place trophy, I’m just hoping that maybe, against all odds, we might get some scissors/shears for a few of our fans. One can only dream… Niraj (Man Utd – okay but 4th or even 5th would have me over the moon) London

Aston who?

I know everyone’s far more interested in laughing at Arsenal and Liverpool or celebrating the long awaited return of Man Utd, but I just have to quickly say how brilliant Villa were. Away at a ground we haven’t won at since Dyer and Bowyer inspired a young Jake Paul and shorn of McGinn and Kamara.

Great team performance. Each and every player had an impact. Still, happy for the bulk of the chat to be about anyone and everyone but Villa. Gary AVFC, Oxford (Not in the race for the top half)

Riling against Mailbox w***ers

It might be churlish for me to even suggest to Man Utd than one (or even two) swallow(s) does not a summer make, but wins over City and Arsenal seem to have them hallucinating that the second coming is upon us.

I for one look forward to more ‘routine’ games against opposition they can’t counter attack, and look forward to the continuing melt-down of their fanbase as the gift that keeps on giving (Yorkshire Man U fans, give me strength).

I’m a York City fan but want Arsenal to win the league this year. Why? Because it’s not bloody Groundhog Day, and watching City or Liverpool (or even Chelsea) win most years makes football a bit too routine and kills me a little every time – will I ever see a team like Leicester win the league again? Is the closest we can get to that a team that finished 8th two years in a row and hasn’t won the league in my lifetime? I would be rooting for Villa, but I just can’t love a team that puts that much stock in Emi Martinez.

So for the sake of variety, Arteta, drop Odegaard, play Merino up front and put Eze in there. Billy (York are going up ole ole!)

…Maybe (definitely) it’s the bitter Gooner in me, but I am seriously over hearing how Carrick has transformed Man Utd in 2 games.

Man Utd have been raising themselves for the big games for years (have people *Gary Neville* forgotten the FA Cup 3rd Round last season). Let’s see if he can get that lot up for a scrap against Burnley.

Maybe start the talk about turning a corner then. Kate

Great goals > control

Back in the mid 90s when I was at school, Leeds had signed an African by the name of Tony Yeboah. In 1995 he scored a number of brilliant goals, including an absolute beauty of a volley against (I think) Liverpool. At school the following week during lunch and later at PE, we all tried to recreate it with varying degrees of ineptitude (pretty sure I didn’t even hit the ball!). This was a continued theme during this period with us kids recreating solo goals and freekicks like they were Baddiel and Skinner doing phoenix from the flames.

Do you know what we didn’t do during these kickabouts? Pass the ball around aimlessly trying to slow the game down and control it. Or some boring robotic passage of play that ends with a cutback and a tap in.

Which was why I was glad to see Arteta getting called out for putting control over attack first. Or Rocastle7 commenting on the slight belittling of Man Utd winning a game of football with a couple of great outside the box goals. F365 were guilty of this during the Ole period, often downplaying a win because of some moment of individual brilliance from Bruno saying the club needed a coach like Pep who would coach patterns of play into the team. But, what was it that made us football fans? Slow, intricate passing triangles or a thunderbolt from a great player?

So, stop worrying about XG, or control or patterns of play and lets go back to enjoying a playing having a go from 30 yards or a great player taking the game by the scruff of the neck to win the game.