Manchester City v Salford: Go low on cards at the Etihad | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Only Brentford have received fewer cards than Pep Guardiola's side in this season's Premier League

Manchester City are hot favourites to beat neighbours Salford in the FA Cup on Saturday evening but there's value to be had in the card markets, says Andy Schooler...

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Manchester City v SalfordSaturday 11 January, 17:45Live on BBC One

Get your bingo card ready for Saturday evening's FA Cup offering.

Class of 92 member in the crowd - check.

Fan holding tin-foil FA Cup - check.

Man City 'crisis' comment - check.

The problem with the latter is that after a horror run of one win in 13, Pep Guardiola's side appear to have turned a corner, having won their last two games by an overall score of 6-1.

Issues clearly still remain - Leicester created plenty against them but failed to take their chances - but a home game against opponents three tiers lower could be exactly what the doctor ordered.

City dominant against lower-league clubs

After all, City have brutalised lower-league foes in recent years - they've won their last 24 such games, scoring 88 goals and conceding just 12.

For the record, they are just 1.06 to win this with the upset, in 90 minutes, at 42.0.

I did have a look through some of the sub-markets in a bid to find some value but, frankly, I struggled.

Not really knowing who will play makes it even tougher. City have certainly had plenty of injuries and doubtless some of their players have been used more often than would have been ideal. Plenty of changes can therefore be expected.

In games such as this, Guardiola has tended to mix some of his youngsters with a core of senior players needing game time.

If that pattern continues, expect the likes of Kyle Walker, Jeremy Doku and Ilkay Gundogan to start here, while young defender Jahmai Simpson-Pusey will probably be in the backline.

You'd think this game has come a few weeks too late for Salford but, that said, they themselves come into it brimming with confidence.

They are on a run of six straight wins, all of which have been 'to nil', while they've now conceded just one goal in their last nine - a streak which goes back to the previous-round victory over Cheltenham in November.

Still, this is a massive step up from League Two and again we can't be sure who boss Karl Robinson will pick.

Promotion is clearly their main goal and with the Ammies currently sitting third, they are on course to go up automatically.

Potential ways to side with Salford

Robinson made six changes to his line-up last time out following a busy festive period and more tweaks will surely come here.

If you are tempted to get with the visitors in some way, both teams to score is a possibility at 2.8 given how shaky City have been at the back of late.

They conceded against lower-league Watford in the EFL Cup earlier this season, although that was actually the first time they had failed to keep a clean sheet against a domestic team from outside the top tier in six games.

Given Salford's defensive record, perhaps backing them on the handicap is a better idea - they are at 1.82 to cover the +3.0 & +3.5 Asian line. Even if they lose by three, you'll still win with half of your stake.

Go low on cards in the Cup

However, my approach here is going to be a tried-and-trusted method which long-term readers may well have heard about before.

FA Cup third-round weekend usually sees card counts drop significantly when compared with league figures.

Games with wide margins of victory also tend to have lower card counts than more competitive ones.

I've already pointed out Man City's domination of lower-league opponents and the latter card point is reflected in their card numbers.

Twenty-three of their last 24 games against such opposition have featured under 3.5 cards - that's a 4/9 shot here - while 17 have seen under 2.5.

In addition, only Brentford have received fewer cards than City in this season's Premier League.

Referee Josh Smith is averaging around four cards per game in 2024/25 - not the best for the bet but not the worst either - and a delve into his past shows he's produced under 2.5 cards in eight of his 13 domestic cup games.

Two of those came earlier this season - Wolves v Burnley and Arsenal v Bolton (two Premier League v non-PL ties) both featuring just one card each.

Sadly, Salford's discipline lets the bet down somewhat - they sit fourth in the League Two cards table - but that quality gap may work in our favour as they may well decide to sit off City in a low block rather than engaging on a regular basis.

Using all that data, let's go under 2.5 cards at 23/20 and also take a longer shot and back both teams under 0.5 cards for which we get odds north of 10/1.

This bet landed for my preview of City's FA Cup tie with Luton last season, while it has delivered in six of their last 24 matches against lower-league opposition.

Recommended bets

1.5pts under 2.5 cards in Man City v Salford @ 23/200.5pts both teams under 0.5 cards @ around 11/1

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 12pts Returned: 9.03pts P/L: -2.97pts

2023/24: +4.54pts