Mark O'Haire's Premier League Notebook: Burnley backed to get off the mark | OneFootball

English Premier League

Burnley were unbeaten at Turf Moor in 2024/25

Sunderland and Leeds impressed on MD1 of the Premier League and Mark O'Haire believes fellow promoted club Burnley can follow suit on Saturday...

What goes up, must come down?

The old idiom ordinarily refers to the physical law of gravity, which dictates that anything thrown upwards will eventually be pulled back down to Earth. It's also been used metaphorically to suggest that rises in fortune, power, or status are often temporary and followed by declines.

However, the same logic has been applied to the three promoted Championship clubs arriving at the Premier League with the majority of pundits and supporters predicting an immediate return to the second-tier for Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland based almost entirely on the failures of the previous six promoted clubs.

Blindingly backing the trio for relegation is harsh, and judging by their MD1 efforts, misguided. History shows that over the past 30 Premier League seasons only 47% of promoted clubs have gone straight back down after one campaign and there were plenty of positives in commanding home displays from Sunderland and Leeds last week.

The secret to Premier League survival

Historic trends highlight exactly how newcomers can survive, with a strong start particularly helpful - all of the 15 promoted side to collect eight or more points from their first five fixtures have stayed up. Meanwhile, the average points haul for a team finishing 18th comes in at 34.5. So in-theory, 35+ points could be enough for safety.

Nine sides have been demoted despite winning 10 EPL matches across a 38-game campaign, suggesting 10+ victories is the benchmark to aspire to, whilst only four teams have scored 50+ goals and fallen through the trapdoor. Early evidence again suggests both Sunderland and Leeds have the capacity to match those markers.

Home form has also been imperative to preserving your top-flight status. In 14 of the past 16 EPL seasons, at least two of the three relegated teams have posted bottom-six home records. The six teams who endured immediate relegation across the previous two campaigns accumulated just 14 home triumphs (just 2.33 each on average).

Survival in the Premier League is rarely dictated by glamour. For clubs scrapping to secure safety, points are precious, margins are thin, and home form often proves decisive. Maximising returns at your home ground could be the defining factor in reaching that 35+ point barrier, scoring 50+ goals and delivering 10+ triumphs.

And if home form really is the key to survival, no club embodies that blueprint better than Burnley. Turf Moor was a fortress last season, and their ability to reproduce that resilience in the Premier League could decide whether they stay afloat.

Keep Burnley onside at Turf Moor

Burnley became the first team in English football history to register 100 points and still fail to win their respective division. Scott Parker's posse only lost twice and broke a collection of clean sheet and goals against records in the Championship, leaking a barely-believable 16 strikes across their 46 dates. It wasn't always pretty, but largely effective.

The Clarets survival prospects have been damaged by James Trafford's sale - the goalkeeper massively overperformed his underlying data - and captain Josh Brownhill has also left the club after top-scoring with 18 goals. Yet the Lancashire outfit weren't completely outclassed at Tottenham in their curtain-raiser despite the 3-0 defeat.

Returning to Turf Moor - where Burnley enjoyed an unbeaten home record in 2024/25 (recording 15/23 shutouts) - the Clarets will be extra eager to get their first points on the board, particularly against a relegation rival in Sunderland. Parker's charges are 2.34 to post top honours, though a more attractive option can be found via the Sportsbook.

The Sportsbook makes Burnley Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals an 11/10 chance, a price that holds plenty of appeal. This option gives us the 0-0 and 1-1 stalemates, as well as the 1-0 or 2-0 home victories - 65% of last season's Turf Moor tussles ended in one of those four results, including a goalless game against Sunderland.

Mark O'Haire says: Back Burnley Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

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