Millwall FC are facing double-issue right now - promotion dreams may be fading | OneFootball

Millwall may be in the top six currently, but their underlying stats resemble more of a mid-table side

It's been a solid season for Millwall results-wise, as Alex Neil has his Lions side in the top six ahead of the Boxing Day round of fixtures.

After 22 games last season, Millwall were sitting in the bottom half of the Championship table, having won seven, drawn seven and lost eight.

This year, their loss tally is just one better at seven defeats, but Alex Neil's side has been able to turn some of those draws into wins, with 10 victories in 22.

However, not many of those wins have been convincing. Eight of them have been by a single goal margin, with five of them being 1-0s. That's classic Millwall, some may say, but defensively, on the face of things, they've been inconsistent, and when they have lost, they've lost heavily.

No team in the top 16 has scored fewer than the Lions so far, and only four teams have conceded more in the whole division. Evidently, while Alex Neil can be happy with his side's position at the moment, he'll know that there's still some work to do to maintain a place in the play-offs come May.

Millwall's underlying numbers aren't those of a play-off side just yet

When analysing underlying data, Millwall are in the middle of the pack.

Per Fotmob, they rank 12th in the Championship for expected goals, 16th for goals per match, and then 12th for expected goals against, and 16th for goals against per match, albeit with four other teams conceding the same number of goals, leaving just four other sides worse off.

Those really aren't stats that jump off the page, and definitely not stats that critics would associate with a side with top-six aspirations.

Evidently, though, Millwall are incredibly solid when taking a lead. They've won 10 of 12 when getting their noses in front, and let two late leads slip into draws against Oxford United and Derby County.

They're happy to sit on a one-goal lead, hence sitting joint-second in the league for clean sheets, but questions will be asked about whether that is sustainable enough to last a whole season.

One thing's for certain, those at the Den wouldn't mind a few more comfortable two or three-goal margins of victory, and perhaps more of those performances would help boost their underlying numbers towards the top end of the rankings.

Millwall's wins haven't been convincing this season, whereas all their defeats have been by two or more goals

It's been a streaky season so far for Millwall. Alex Neil's side have won 10 games, with four of them coming consecutively in October, and three coming consecutively in late November/early December.

Those streaks were then followed up with a four-game winless run and a three-game winless run, the latter of which is currently ongoing.

Looking at Millwall's wins so far this season, only their 3-0 win over West Brom and 2-0 victory against Stoke City have been by a margin of more than one goal.

While that does mean that, in close, even games, the Lions do have the willpower to keep intensity high for 90 minutes, find the winning goal and then shut a team out for the remainder of the game, there haven't been too many convincing wins.

On the flip side, all seven of Milwall's defeats so far this season have been, on the face of things, convincing, losing all of them by at least a two-goal margin.

But when looking deeper into it, against Middlesbrough, Wrexham, Portsmouth and Hull City, they were chasing equalisers before conceding in the final 10 minutes, which could skew numbers away from their favour.

Overall, 11 of the 31 goals they've conceded this season have been after the 80th minute, three more than any other side in the division.

Alex Neil needs to fix the attacking issue first — defensive problems will even out as a result

So, when looking at the data, it all seems rather average at Millwall currently. But the fact that the Lions can defend that one-goal lead well should mean that, simply, they need to improve at the top end to end up taking the lead more often.

Femi Azeez has been the star of the show going forward at the Den so far this season, scoring six goals. Mihailo Ivanovic has been solid, but hasn't wowed after a breakout year in 2024/25, and outside of that, Alex Neil's side hasn't carried much of an attacking threat.

Even in games where they've been expected to chase a goal after going behind, their expected goals have somehow been even lower than in games where they've won 1-0, which indicates that there's a real lack of creativity across the squad.

Ultimately, if the Lions are going to end up finishing in the top six come May, they need that game-changer alongside Azeez, whether that comes in the form of a transfer in January or in-house. That'll help increase both their expected and actual goal tally.

Then, if the record when going ahead is sustainable, the defensive stats will improve alongside the attacking ones.

But given how tight and competitive the play-off race is setting up to be this season, not much should be left to chance, and if defensive upgrades can be made in an attempt to lower opposition chances and increase an already impressive clean sheet tally, Alex Neil should look into doing that, too.