MLS Week 1 Expert Picks and Predictions | OneFootball

St. Louis City hosts Charlotte FC

Charlotte Draw No Bet +140

MLS Week 1 has a few interesting matches where the away team presents value.  Charlotte had more road wins in 2025 (6) than St. Louis had home wins (4). Not only are Charlotte the better team on paper, the odds are showing them as underdogs, which I’d love to attack. 

St. Louis City have a new coach (Yoann Damet) and look to be running a back 5 this season.  Meanwhile, Charlotte is returning with the same coach (Dean Smith), same system, and are now pairing Luca de la Torre with Ashley Westwood in midfield. 

Charlotte is well established while St. Louis is all question marks.  I will confidently take this pro-Charlotte play, albeit one with draw insurance. 

DC United hosts the Philadelphia Union

DC United Team Total Over 1.5 +176

While DC United was bad in 2025, the injuries to Benteke exasperated their problems. In the offseason, they added Tai Baribo and Louis Munteanu, who will now pair up top instead of using a lone striker. This attack should look better this season.

The Philadelphia Union had one of the best defenses in MLS over the past few seasons, but they lost Jacob Glesnes and Kai Wagner this offseason. I think they will regress in 2025, including allowing more 2 goal-against matches.

Taking DC United to score over 1.5 goals seems like a solid play.  In week 1, I’m targeting a few of these goal totals that don’t yet seem calibrated. 

Orlando City hosts the New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls Over 1.5 +196

The New York Red Bulls missed the playoffs for the first time in 2025, partially because of a terrible season on the road. This offseason, they upgraded both wings, adding Cade Cowell and Jorge Ruvalcaba. With a transfer weakened defense, I think they are going to score and concede at a much higher rate this season. 

Orlando City is also a defense to pick on this season. They lost Pedro Gallese, Rodrigo Schlegel, Dagur Dan, and Alex Freeman this offseason, all of whom are defensive players. Making things worse, Robin Jansson is unavailable for week 1. 

My model shows just under a 40% chance for RBNY to score twice, which at +196 provides a roughly 5.7% advantage on the sportsbook’s implied probability. I think this play is a medium risk- high reward bet. 

Houston Dynamo host the Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire Draw No Bet +102

This matchup is another where the away team should have an advantage. Chicago won 9 away matches last season, while Houston had only 5 home wins.  Chicago didn’t make a lot of changes this offseason, while Dynamo made some interesting moves.  Most recently, they traded away Griffin Dorsey during the week of their home opener. 

Gregg Berhalter did a nice job with Chicago, and I think the second season will provide another opportunity to improve. Chicago was already great on the road, and the Draw No Bet option provides a ton of value. 

My model has Houston winning 30.6% of the time. This play covers about 70% of the outcomes, with either a cash out or a cash refund. 

Los Angeles FC host Inter Miami

Inter Miami Over 1.5 +140

Last year I established a rule. If Inter Miami is plus money, we bet on Inter Miami. This year, I will add another rule; if Inter Miami over 1.5 is plus money, we bet on Inter Miami. 

Inter Miami scored 36 goals in their last nine MLS matches, and only one of those matches saw Miami score less than two goals. I think they score twice, and +140 is a fantastic price. 

LAFC is a good side, and this is going to be the marquee match of MLS’s opening weekend.  I don’t want to pick a side, but I think we will see fireworks.  Why not choose Inter Miami to do what they do best, scoring multiple goals?

Portland Timbers host the Columbus Crew

Portland Timbers Over 1.5 +140

This weekend the Portland Timbers host the Columbus Crew in an interconference matchup.  I think this matchup is likely a Portland Timbers win, and the Over 1.5 Goals at +140 is my official play. 

The Timbers should get off to a hot start this season, now that Kristoffer Velde and David da Costa had a full preseason with the team.

Changes for the Crew, as well as a 2025 downturn, have me low on the team this season.  They may not give up two goals every game, but flying across the country to visit a West Coast team in their home opener is just the advantage I’m looking for. 

Hear more, and follow along as I preview all 30 MLS teams before kickoff of the 2026 season!

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