MLS Week 5 Best Bets | OneFootball

The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on Spotify with video, below.

Match- Atlanta United host DC United

Pick- Atlanta United Team Total Over 1.5 +104

Atlanta United had offensive explosions over their last two matches.  After starting the season with two straight 2-0 road losses, they have a 2-3 home loss and a 3-1 home win. Suddenly, they can score. 

I don’t want to have to pick a winner here, because they are playing DC United.  DC has been wildly unpredictable this season.  Their improved defense and offensive additions should pay off down the road, and they are 2-2 to start 2026.  However, historical trends on the home/away splits still favor Atlanta United. 

In this match, I think Atlanta should exploit two of DC’s weaknesses.  The first is aerial superiority, especially in the box.  The second is through balls against the run of play, particularly from Almiron or Miranchuk.  Look for those assist and goal odds closer to gametime.  

Just in case this game gets out of hand, which it could, I like the Atlanta Team Total at +104 more than their win at +100.  

Match- FC Dallas hosts Houston Dynamo

Pick- FC Dallas Team Total Over 1.5 Goals -104

This season, I am keeping an eye out for home teams getting a team total approaching even money.  This week, it is FC Dallas, fresh off of a 3-3 draw against San Diego FC.   Going back to last season, Dallas has scored at least twice in 8 of 11 home matches.  This season, they have scored 2 or more in 2 of 4 matches, totaling 6 goals in their first 4 games.  

I think this Copa Tejas matchup is going to be an electric game, with Houston coming out as a much improved side.  However, Houston did allow their opponents to score twice in 2 of their 3 2026 matches.  They did miss week 3, and had extra prep time last week, but they still fought to the death (90+15’) for their winning goal.  I think this game sees the same type of attack oriented play.  

FC Dallas will be without CB Osaze Urhodhide, which I think pushes us to a higher goal total.  I don’t want to pick a winner, but FC Dallas, knowing they need to land the first punch, should score two.  At -104 this is a nice near-even-money play without a ton of risk.  

Match- St. Louis City hosts NE Revolution

Pick- Revolution or Draw -125

The New England Revolution had an offensive explosion last week, putting 6 goals on FC Cincinnati. This week, they head to St. Louis who lost three straight, each without scoring.  I think this may be an opportunity for the Revolution to get any away result. The official play is the Revolution on the double chance at -125.

The Revolution were 5-5-7 in road games in 2025, where they played better than at home.  For comparison, St. Louis City was 4-6-7 at home last season.  These two teams have had a rough time over the past few seasons, but that doesn’t mean this game doesn’t have goals.  Their only previous meeting was a 2-2 draw in September of 2024.  

The Revs have also improved since 2025, which is more than I can say for St. Louis City.  In just their last game, they saw a goal and assist by new striker Dor Turgeman and three assists from winger Luca Langoni.  

The Revolution are better on paper, and have the wind at their back after coasting through their week 4 matchup against Cincinnati, which was both a soccer victory and a moral victory.  I think the double chance at -125 is good odds, while not relying solely on a Revolution win. 

Match- FC Cincinnati hosts CF Montreal

Pick- Under 2.5 +128

This week, FC Cincinnati looks to get their second win when they host the Montreal Impact.  CF Cincinnati has scored just 3 times this season, twice in their 2-0 win over Atlanta.  Montreal, competitively, scored just 4 goals, with 3 of those in their 3-0 win against RBNY.  

I think this is a low scoring game between two offenses who struggled this season and two defenses that could shut down opponents.  

CF Montreal got an early penalty against RBNY then bunkered and countered, preventing NY from scoring and finding two more of their own.  That doesn’t happen against FC Cincinnati.   

And while Cincy got blown out 6-1, they also played the Revolution who had a prior week’s bye.  They sat out week three with winter weather, and had an extra week’s preparation.  

Those two outliers shouldn’t factor in here.  The under 2.5 at +128, according to my model, gives us a 10.2% advantage on the sportsbook’s implied probability.  The math adds up, so let’s see a snoozer in Cincy. 

Match- New York City FC hosts Inter Miami

Pick- Inter Miami Draw No Bet +120

Inter Miami heads to New York for Miami’s 5th straight away match to start the 2026 season.  They had midweek matches the past two weeks, and fell 1-1 to Nashville on away goals in the CONCACAF Champions Cup.  This, plus NYCFC’s great home advantage, have Miami at +190 to win outright.  That is a huge total for a team that proved last season they could beat any team in a one-off match. 

Home advantage didn’t mean a lot to NYCFC when it meant Messi playing in Yankee Stadium last season.  Miami won in New York by a 4-0 scoreline (after all, who else but Messi enjoys dribbling in tight spaces?). In fact, if you include the playoffs, Miami had two wins and a draw against NYCFC in 2025, with an 11-3 aggregate. 

Miami is a good bet at plus money, but the +190 is probably a touch greedy.  I will take the draw-no-bet insurance at +120.  

Match- Portland Timbers host LA Galaxy

Pick- Portland DC and O2.5 +121

Portland are 1-3 on the young season, with their lone win on opening day against the Crew.  That win was, of course, more intriguing when we thought Columbus would be competitive, but it was a home victory, nonetheless.  

This week, they play the LA Galaxy at home. 

LA has been up and down, starting with a 1-1 draw against NYCFC and then a definitive 3-0 home beatdown over Charlotte.  Since then, they got blown out by the Rapids and edged out by Sporting KC. Greg Vanney will be without Jeremy Paintsil this weekend, when his seat may just heat up to the boiling point.  

Combined, these two teams have seen 7 of 8 of their 2026 matches hit the over on 2.5 goals. For the Galaxy, that happened in 68% of 2025 matches, while it hit 53% of the time for Portland. 

With Portland’s improved offense, I think that number is going up.  By a lot. 

Taking a double chance on Portland to win at home isn’t a stretch.  Even in a lackluster 2025, they lost only 4 times at home.  As for the Galaxy, their early-season high has settled and we see a team I can’t bet on the road.  They also have a midweek CCC contest, which prevented the team from full recovery 2 weeks in a row. 

Official pay is Portland Double-Chance and Over 2.5 Goals.  

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