Newcastle United – Success and failure by the finest of margins | OneFootball

No wonder so many Newcastle United fans have become such nervous wrecks recently.

When you are competing at the better end of things, the fine margins couldn’t be…finer.

I think Newcastle United fans are no different to the supporters of other clubs, in not wanting to acknowledge just how little difference there is in deciding between ending in success or failure.

One piece of luck, one deflection, one mistake, one piece of inspiration, one decision by the referee or VAR, can potentially be what dictates success or failure after ten months and so many matches.

Obviously I was gutted to lose at Villa but unlike others, I kind of looked at it as almost a positive that we ended up having so much go against us in one match, get it all out of the way at once. A couple of mistakes (poor Tonali ball helping to gift the first goal, Murphy too late tracking back on the second), two ridiculous deflections (first and third goals).

Then the next away game saw Burn deflect Minteh’s shot past Pope, with the Brighton goal leading such a charmed life, plus VAR denying two penalties. Only for a third VAR review to finally allow Isak to convert for what could prove to be a very valuable very late point.

Speaking of valuable…

As you can see, Sunday’s High Noon clash with Chelsea was absolutely huge.

Even with Forest and Man City dropping points (as well as Chelsea), just imagine how things would have looked if it had been Chelsea the winners on Sunday in the 36th round of Premier League games.

It would then have been Chelsea third in the table on 66 points and everybody saying they were certainties to get Champions League.

Whilst Newcastle United would have been fifth on 63 points and hanging on to a Champions League place by a whisker, only on goal difference. United knowing they had a trip to Arsenal next, whilst Villa have the shameless non-trying pair of Spurs (at home) and Man U (away) to play.

Doesn’t bear thinking about really does it, I know Newcastle still haven’t got over the line yet and the fans’ nerves remain. However, if United had lost on Sunday then those nerves would have been off the scale.

However, I especially want to talk about the team in seventh…

Nottingham Forest have had an incredible season but just imagine how much more incredible it could have been for them, if not for Eddie Howe and Newcastle United.

Back in August 2024, Forest were leading in the second round League Cup penalty shootout, Forest took the lead at the City Ground on 10 November 2024 in the Premier League, Forest took the lead at St James’ Park on 23 February 2025.

Nottingham Forest lost all three of those games and are now ending the season trophyless and almost certainly missing out on Champions League football.

Newcastle United won all three of those matches and are ending the season with a first domestic trophy in 70 years and almost certainly returning to the Champions League.

What happened in 1974 will be now paling into insignificance for Forest fans, as they now have far more to curse NUFC about now.

If holding on to their leads in the two Premier League matches against Newcastle, Forest would now be third on 68 points and all but guaranteed Champions League.

Whilst with defeats in those two games, Newcastle would now be seventh on 60 points and pretty much zero chance of Champions League.

It makes you think.

Two years ago

It makes me very much think of what happened back in 2022/23.

That season was seen (correctly) as an astonishing achievement by Eddie Howe and Newcastle United, finishing fourth in the table and getting Champions League football. Whilst I remember vividly at the time it was seen as a disaster for Spurs, dropping from fourth place in 2021/22 and Champions League football, to eighth and no European football qualification at all.

At the end of that 2022/23 season I looked at the final table and thought about just how much two matches had meant for both Spurs and Newcastle United.

United won 2-1 at Tottenham and then smashed them 6-1 at St James’ Park.

However, if Spurs had won those two matches, then they would have finished fifth on 66 points and Newcastle United sixth on 65 points with no Champions League football.

A year later

The 2023/24 Premier League season ended like this at the top end…

For me, this was an astonishing achievement from Eddie Howe in 2023/24. The worst season ever for injuries in Newcastle’s entire history and yet still only six points off fifth, eight points off fourth.

Newcastle won as usual against Spurs at SJP but lost at their place. If doing the double that season over Spurs, Newcastle would have finished fifth in the Premier League and qualified for the Europa League, Tottenham would have finished seventh and had no European football.

The ridiculously weak Europa League this season has allowed a useless Spurs to now be only 90 minutes away from lifting a major trophy AND getting Champions League qualification as well, despite fighting it out not to be fourth bottom of the Premier League.

Talk about fine margins, if Spurs had lost at home to Newcastle last season this beyond belief juicy lifeline couldn’t even have been dreamt of, they only have to now beat an equally useless Man U side, to have what could prove to be a win in Bilbao that revives their club from a total mess it has become this season.

Speaking finally of fine margins, despite the beyond belief injury nightmare United had last season, if only one person had been available. If only the brilliant Sandro Tonali had been available throughout last season, just what could Eddie Howe and Newcastle United have potentially still achieved, in both the Premier League and Champions League?