Opta Predicts Arsenal v Atletico Madrid: Back the Gunners in 11/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Arsenal v Atletico MadridTuesday, 20:00

Arsenal may lead the Premier League table, but Mikel Arteta wants his team to fight on multiple fronts this season.

As such, Tuesday's heavyweight clash with Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League at the Emirates Stadium presents another chance for the Gunners to lay down a marker.

Champions League semi-finalists last season, Arsenal have won their opening two games in UEFA's flagship club competition this term - beating Athletic Bilbao 2-0 and then overcoming Olympiacos by the same scoreline.

They are one of six teams to have won their opening two fixtures and sit fifth in the 36-team standings, behind Inter, reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.

Atletico, meanwhile, sit 10th on three points. This is their second trip to England this season, following a last-gasp 3-2 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield in matchweek one - a loss they responded to by hammering Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1.

Diego Simeone's team are also unbeaten in LaLiga since August, so this promises to be a real test of Arsenal's credentials. Using Opta data, we have picked out some of our favourite selections to make up a Bet Builder.

Arsenal favourites to maintain perfect start

The Gunners were not at their best in attack against Fulham on Saturday, but they found a way to get the job done, and under Arteta, they are no strangers to grinding out results.

Similar things have often been said of Atletico under Simeone, with Los Colchoneros renowned for their defensive grit and mastery of the dark arts.

This season, though, Atletico's defensive solidity seems to have escaped them at times. They have kept just two clean sheets, shipping 10 goals from 9.7 expected goals against (xGA) in LaLiga, showing their record is a fair reflection of the chances they have conceded. They have also let in four goals in their first two UCL games.

In contrast, no team in Europe's top five leagues has kept as many clean sheets in all competitions this season as Arsenal (eight). The Gunners are one of only two sides - along with Inter - who have not yet conceded a goal in the 2025/26 Champions League.

Arsenal have given up the fewest xGA (0.8) in the competition this term, while they have held their opponents to under 1.0 xG in seven of their 10 league-phase matches since the start of 2024/25.

But while Arsenal have kept things tight, allowing just 5.7 xGA in all competitions this term, there have been 11 goals across the two Champions League matches in which Atletico have played this season.

With that in mind, selecting a range of 3-4 match goals at 6/4 could represent an intriguing punt, while 3-5 goals is available at 1/1. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11.

Both teams to score - a winning bet in six of Atleti's last seven matches - is 9/10, while it is 20/23 for those looking to oppose that bet. An Arsenal win and BTTS can be backed at 11/4, while an Atletico victory with goals at both ends is a long 10/1.

Arsenal are the favourites to claim victory at a price of 8/15 with Betfair's 90-minute guarantee. Atletico are out at 4/1, with the draw 5/2.

The Opta supercomputer's predictions also lean towards the Gunners, with Arsenal assigned a 58% win probability. Atletico have a 19.3% chance of victory according to the predictive model, while the likelihood of a draw is 22.7%.

Atletico have only won one of their last nine matches against English sides in European competitions (D2 L6), with that lone victory coming against Manchester United in the second leg of a last-16 tie in the Champions League in March 2022.

In fact, Atletico have never won away to an English side in the group or league phase of the Champions League, failing in all five attempts to date (two draws, three losses).

Arsenal, meanwhile, have won their last six games against Spanish teams, beating four different opponents in this run (Real Madrid, Sevilla, Girona and Athletic).

The Gunners are 1/10 to avoid defeat, while Atletico are 13/10 on the Double Chance market. Arsenal can also be backed at 6/4 to win to nil, which, given their penchant for clean sheets, could tempt some, even if Atleti have looked good going forward lately.

Alvarez and Saka the ones to watch

It is fair to say Viktor Gyökeres has struggled to get going so far in an Arsenal shirt, scoring just three goals in 11 games across all competitions, and he is underperforming his xG by 1.4 - suggesting his finishing has been below par, based on the quality of the chances that have come his way.

The Swede impressed in Europe for Sporting CP last season, though, and he can be backed at 13/10 to score anytime, or 7/2 to net the opener.

But one striker who is having no such issues in front of goal is Julián Alvarez. The former Manchester City attacker is thriving at Atletico, and he has already tallied 10 goal involvements this season in as many appearances, scoring seven times and providing three assists.

Alvarez has also scored 13 goals in 11 Champions League games since the start of 2023/24. In this period, he is the player who has exceeded his xG total by the biggest margin in the competition (+7.6 with 13 goals from just 5.4 expected goals).

No other player from Atletico or Arsenal can match the Argentine's 17 shots on target this season, either, with Antoine Griezmann (11) next, followed by Gyökeres. Alvarez also had three shots on target in each of his last two Champions League games.

A tempting bet, then, is Alvarez to score or assist at 2/1, while he is 11/4 to score anytime and 18/1 to grab two or more.

An even more intriguing offer is Alvarez to have two or more shots on target, at 3/1, while a bolder selection would be 11/1 for him to keep up his run of having at least three attempts hit the target in the Champions League. For those looking to take a more cautious approach to constructing a Bet Builder, Alvarez is 4/6 to hit the target at least once.

As ever, Bukayo Saka is likely to be one of Arsenal's main threats. The England winger has been directly involved in 17 goals in 19 appearances in the Champions League (11 goals, six assists).

Since his competition debut in September 2023, Saka (89) has the second-best minutes per goal involvement ratio of any winger to play at least 500 minutes, only behind Barcelona's Raphinha (69).

Saka is 1/1 to be involved in a goal here and an enticing 15/8 to score, while it is 4/11 for him to have at least one shot on target and 13/8 for two or more.

Gabriel Martinelli, meanwhile, has netted three times in his last five Champions League games, while having at least one shot on target on each of his last eight appearances in the competition. The Brazilian has largely been limited to a super-sub role this season, but he remains worthy of consideration at 11/4 to net at any time.

Martinelli can be backed at 4/7 to continue his run of getting at least one shot on target in the Champions League, while he is 13/5 to hit the target twice or more.

Leandro Trossard has also scored and assisted already in the Champions League this season, while the Belgian opened his domestic account for 2025/26 with the winner against Fulham.

Trossard can be backed at 6/5 to be register a goal involvement or 12/5 to score. He has been involved in seven goals across his last 12 games for Arsenal in all competitions (three goals, four assists).

Atletico's Griezmann is always a threat and looks a tempting option at 11/4 for a goal contribution or 9/2 to score.

And for those seeking a bigger price, Marcos Llorente has form for netting on English soil - he scored both of Atletico's goals against Liverpool - and the midfielder is 14/1 to score anytime here. Gabriel Magalhães, meanwhile, is a constant menace from set-pieces and is 15/2 to beat Jan Oblak.

Corners and cards worth tracking

Speaking of set-pieces, Arsenal have scored more goals from corners (seven) than any other side in the Premier League this season, with Trossard's winner against Fulham being the Gunners' 63rd strike from a corner since the start of 2021/22.

Rayo Vallecano (86) and Barcelona (75) are the only teams from Europe's top five leagues to take more corners than Arsenal (74) in all competitions this season. Atleti are joint-11th in those charts, having taken 66 since the Club World Cup.

So, set-pieces - and corners specifically - are likely to be important at the Emirates.

Over 9.5 match corners is 4/5, with over 10.5 available at 5/4. Given Arsenal have averaged 6.73 per match this campaign, with their visitors averaging exactly six, either bet could be tempting.

Arsenal, who are 1/4 to take more corners than their opponents, are 6/10 to keep up their 2025/26 average and have over 5.5, or an appealing 11/10 to slightly outdo those figures and manage over 6.5.

It would also be no surprise if there are plenty of fouls in Tuesday's game, given both teams have a reputation for playing streetwise football.

Atletico have conceded 123 fouls in all competitions this season, at an average of 11.2 per game. Arsenal have given up 117, at an average of 10.6 per match.

Martin Zubimendi and Clement Lenglet are the respective leaders in their squads for fouls committed, with 16 and 15.

Defender Lenglet has conceded two or more fouls on each of his last three Champions League appearances, also receiving a yellow card in all three games. The Frenchman is 8/15 to commit another pair of fouls, or 15/8 to commit at least three.

Lenglet missed Saturday's 1-0 win over Osasuna in LaLiga due to suspension after being sent off against Celta Vigo prior to the international break and is in line to return here. In all competitions, he has committed multiple fouls in five of his last seven games. Lenglet is 12/5 to receive a card.

On the Arsenal side, Zubimendi will be in the thick of things in midfield, and he is 6/5 to commit multiple fouls. He committed four in his last UCL outing against Olympiacos, though that is the only game in which he has committed more than one foul since August.

The Spain international is 4/1 to be carded, and he has found himself in the referee's notebook in each of his first two UCL games for Arsenal.

His midfield partner Declan Rice is 4/9 to give up a foul or 23/10 to give up two or more, but he has only committed multiple fouls on one of his 11 outings this term.

Conor Gallagher has conceded 11 fouls this season, putting him joint-third among all Arsenal and Atletico players. But the former Chelsea man is an extremely short 1/6 to commit a couple of fouls, which could make him one to avoid - he has only committed 1.19 per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season.

That former price could be attractive, given Simeone's men have received 21 cautions in 11 games across all competitions this term at an average of 1.91 per match.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have been adept at walking the disciplinary tightrope, only receiving 15 cards in the same amount of matches (1.36 per game).