Opta Predicts Aston Villa v Manchester United: Rogers and Fernandes backed in 11/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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The Premier League title could become a three-horse race

Many seem to believe the Premier League title race will be another straight shootout between Arsenal and Manchester City, but there could yet be a third contender...

Aston Villa are lurking just three points adrift of the summit ahead of matchday 17, having won nine consecutive games in all competitions.

The Opta supercomputer assigns Villa a 5.8% chance of winning the title. That looks to be a long shot, with Arsenal at 65.5% and Man City at 29.9%, but no other team has even a 1% probability, so Unai Emery's men are best-placed to make it a three-horse race.

Villa are 28/1 on Betfair's sportsbook to be crowned champions of England, though Sunday's meeting with Manchester United will be a stern test of their credentials.

Having previously scored four goals against Wolves, the Red Devils produced arguably their most scintillating attacking performance under Ruben Amorim on Monday, despite throwing away three separate leads in their thrilling 4-4 draw with Bournemouth.

But after losing key players to the Africa Cup of Nations, can United stop the Villa juggernaut? Ahead of the game, we have used Opta data to preview the match and pick out some of our favourite Bet Builder selections.

Villa favourites to claim 10th straight win

Villa are the sportsbook favourites ahead of this game, with Emery's side 1/1 for victory with Betfair's 90 minute guarantee.

The visitors are 21/10 to take three points, with the draw also available at 21/10.

United are 4/6 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market, or 7/5 to win on the Draw No Bet market, and it's worth noting the Red Devils have won their last two away Premier League matches, as well as having an exceptional record against Villa.

Man Utd have won 41 Premier League games against the Villans, with 18 of those coming away from home, and, in competition history, only they themselves have beaten an opponent more often both overall and on the road (42 wins overall, 19 away against Everton).

But Villa Park has truly been a fortress for Emery's men, and that has held true throughout 2025, when they have only lost one game.

Only Man City (46) have won more Premier League points at home in 2025 than Villa's 40, while the Villans have also lost the fewest home games of any ever-present side.

Villa have also won their last nine home games in all competitions. They have already had one 10-match home winning run under Emery, between March and September 2023. He could become just the second Villa manager, and the first since George Ramsay in 1905, to enjoy two separate runs of 10 straight home victories.

Villa could also win 10 successive games home and away for the first time since an 11-match streak in 1914, and given Emery's men have already upset both Arsenal and Man City at Villa Park this campaign, they warrant their status as favourites.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Villa were victorious in 57.2%, with United assigned a 20.6% win probability and a 22.2% chance of earning a draw.

It should be noted that United have performed well on their travels lately, though, netting multiple goals in each of their last five away Premier League games, last doing so in more consecutively between June and December 2020 (11). They are 6/4 to net at least twice here.

However, Villa have not conceded more than once in any of their last nine home matches, keeping a clean sheet in five of those. With that in mind, a price of 1/2 for United to score a maximum of one goal might appeal to some.

The visitors have shown more in attack recently, and there are reasons to be cautious before jumping in to back Villa, though it's worth noting the visitors' options have been depleted by Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo linking up with the Cameroon and Ivory Coast squads, respectively, for AFCON. Mbeumo is United's leading Premier League scorer in 2025/26 with six goals, while Amad's four goal involvements (two goals, two assists) rank him fourth in their squad.

Villa are 16/5 to win to nil for the fifth time in seven home games, or alternatively, they are 13/5 to win a match containing goals at both ends - United are 9/2 in the same market.

Villa are 11/4 to beat a -1 handicap, though they have won each of their last seven games by exactly one goal, and given United's strong away performances, a competitive affair looks likely. Therefore, for those who believe Villa's run of form can continue, a price of 3/1 for the hosts to win this one by the odd goal may hold appeal.

Rogers to headline Villa's long-distance threat

There has been plenty of discussion in recent weeks around Aston Villa's underlying figures.

Only Tottenham (+9.7) have outperformed their expected goals (xG) figures by a greater margin than Villa (+7.9, 25 goals, 17.1 xG) in the Premier League this season, with Emery's side ranking 15th in the division for xG and joint-last for xG per shot (0.09, level with Sunderland).

So, Villa have scored considerably more goals than might be expected based on the quality of chances they have created this term. Villa have also conceded 5.0 goals fewer than anticipated based on the xGA figures they have given up (17 goals conceded, 22 xGA).

Opta's expected points table, then, has them down in 15th on 17.7 xPTS, barely more than half their actual tally (33).

The natural conclusion would be to suggest Villa's overperformance at both ends will eventually level out and their title charge will fade.

But there are reasons to suggest Villa's attacking players might still be worth backing, with fantastic long-range shooting going at least some way to explaining the above discrepancies.

Their 10 goals from outside the penalty area are the most of any team in the Premier League this season and already more than 16 different teams managed in the entirety of 2024/25.

Morgan Rogers' blockbuster against West Ham last weekend was his third goal from outside the box this season, a league-high figure, while Emiliano Buendia and Matty Cash are among 11 Premier League players with two such goals.

England international Rogers is 12/5 to score anytime or 15/2 to net first. Rogers has been involved in eight goals in his last 11 league games (five goals, three assists) and is 11/10 to score or assist.

But on the goal front, it has been a case of feast or famine for Rogers lately. He has only scored in two of his last 14 matches in all competitions but has netted twice on both of those occasions - versus Leeds United and West Ham. He is 14/1 to get multiple goals.

Instead, punters may prefer to back Rogers on the shots markets. Rogers fired off five shots against West Ham and has had at least three on five of his last nine starts in all competitions. Rogers is 11/10 to attempt at least three shots or 11/4 for four or more - tempting prices, given his long-range prowess.

Alternatively, Rogers is 8/15 to have at least one shot on target or 5/2 for two-plus.

Though United impressed going forward against Bournemouth, they were still wide open defensively, facing 14 shots, nine attempts on target, and 1.94 xG. Marcus Tavernier had four of those shots from a number 10 position, returns Rogers could replicate.

But Rogers is not the only Villa player capable of threatening from those areas. Youri Tielemans has averaged 1.77 shots per 90 minutes this season, with 1.11 coming from outside the area. The Belgian is 16/5to score, or 10/11 to register a shot on target.

Buendia averages 2.31 shots per 90, third among all Villa players to have played at least 600 minutes this term, and he is 11/4 to get on the scoresheet or 8/11 to hit the target once.

John McGinn is 4/1 to score anytime or 13/10 to get a shot on target, though his per-90 average of 0.99 shots is only the eighth-highest in Villa's squad (minimum 600 mins).

Donyell Malen averages more shots per 90 minutes than any other Villa player with 3.54, and he is 9/5 to hit the target at least twice or 6/4 to score anytime, though he has not started any of Villa's last three Premier League matches.

The only player ahead of Malen in the anytime goalscorer market is Ollie Watkins at 13/10. It looked like he had lift-off after a poor start to 2025/26 when he netted twice at Brighton & Hove Albion recently, but he has failed to score in his three subsequent outings, so it's hard to back him with huge confidence.

Fernandes and Cunha set for enhanced roles

However, no Villa player is as much of a high-volume shooter as Matheus Cunha, who has averaged 4.1 shots per 90 in all competitions this season.

Cunha fired off a game-high eight shots against Bournemouth, hitting the target on three occasions and netting just his second Premier League goal for the Red Devils. Remarkably, that was his second consecutive game with eight shots, having also been busy against his former club Wolves a week earlier.

Cunha scored home and away against Villa for Wolves last season and is [12/5] to find the net at any time, or 15/2 to get the first goal.

The Brazilian is 4/7 to attempt at least three shots, 8/5 for four or more, or 10/3 for five-plus. Cunha is 5/2 to hit the target at least twice, having done so 1.4 times per 90.

With Mbeumo and Amad absent, Cunha's ability to carry the ball from deep could be crucial for United - he leads all Premier League players for carries resulting in a shot this season (18).

Cunha's powerful running style tends to invite fouls, and he is [2/5] to be fouled at least twice or [6/5] to be fouled at least three times. Cunha has been fouled 2.09 times per 90 minutes since joining United.

Only Patrick Dorgu has won more fouls per 90 for the Red Devils this term (2.85), with the wing-back 1/1 to be fouled at least three times.

Bruno Fernandes has been fouled 1.46 times per 90 in 2025/26 and is another player that tends to attract rough treatment from opponents. He is 1/1 to be fouled at least twice or 3/1 to win three or more.

The United skipper has been in sensational form of late, scoring and assisting a goal on his last two Premier League appearances. The only player to do so in three straight games for the Red Devils is Ryan Giggs, back in April 2003.

Fernandes is 5/2 to get on the scoresheet or a juicy 10/3 to register an assist. He has assisted a goal in each of United's last five away Premier League games, and no player has ever done so in six straight road matches in the competition.

The fact he takes set-pieces could boost his chances of being involved, with United's seven Premier League goals from corners only bettered by Arsenal (nine) this season. Fernandes teed up a goal from a corner against Bournemouth, for Casemiro, who is suspended for this one after accumulating five yellow cards,

Fernandes is 7/5 for a goal involvement of either kind, while Cunha is also 7/5 in the same market.

Cunha is a frequent shooter, but Fernandes is not shy in going for goal either, averaging 2.86 shots per 90 - the Portugal star can be backed at 1/1 to have at least three shots.

Those above prices may be more tempting than the 7/2 for Fernandes to hit the target at least twice, though - as he has hit the target just 0.85 times per 90 this campaign.

If United are to upset the odds, Fernandes and Cunha will be key.

Defensive questions remain, but Man Utd forwards should put up a fight

Following Monday's eight-goal thriller against Bournemouth, Amorim bemoaned the chances United missed during a first half they largely dominated, while acknowledging his attackers had at least put on a show for the Old Trafford faithful.

In the opening 45 minutes of that match, United produced the second-highest non-penalty xG total (2.49), the most shots (17) and the joint-most touches in the opposition's box (30) of any side in a Premier League match this campaign.

They ended the game having attempted 25 shots with an xG value of 3.4, having racked up 3.5 non-penalty xG against Wolves a week earlier. The Red Devils' last two games, then, have brought their two best non-penalty xG totals of the season.

Since the November international break, United have averaged 21.6 shots and seven shots on target per Premier League match. So even if huge questions remain about their defensive organisation and Villa warrant their favourites tag, the Red Devils should give it a go.

Given United's fine attacking displays, we like the odds-against price of 13/10 for them to have more shots on target than their hosts, who are [4/6] to win the same market, with the tie 9/2. Villa have averaged 13.2 shots and 5.8 shots on target per Premier League match since the November break.

United are 4/7 to have at least 13 shots, 5/6 for 14 or more, or 5/4 for 15 or more. If you fancy the Red Devils to keep up their recent five-game average and surpass 20 shots, that bet is priced at a big 6/1.

United are 1/1 to have at least five shots on target or 21/10 to register a minimum of six. It is 1/1 for both teams to have at least four shots on target, or 13/5 for five apiece.

Plenty of shots could translate to plenty of goals, and five of the teams' last eight head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score, with the same amount featuring over 2.5 goals.

It is 8/15 for both teams to score, while over 2.5 match goals is also odds-on at 6/10.

Bet Builder

Based on the above, the following Bet Builder featuring our favourite selections is available at 11/1 on the sportsbook: