Opta Predicts Chelsea v Arsenal: Back London Derby bet builder at 10/1 | OneFootball

Title hopefuls host title favourites

It's a top-of-the-table clash in the Premier League on Sunday, with the headline fixture of the weekend seeing leaders Arsenal head to Stamford Bridge to face in-form rivals Chelsea.

Both teams come into this game on the back of convincing wins over European heavyweights in the UEFA Champions League - Chelsea overwhelmed 10-man Barcelona 3-0 on Tuesday, before Arsenal dispatched Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich 3-1 a day later, inflicting a first defeat of the season on Vincent Kompany's team.

Six points is the difference between them in the league; Chelsea sit second heading into the weekend, though the Blues could find themselves down in fourth, or possibly fifth by the time kick-off rolls around here.

Chelsea will be eager to prove they are in the title race, while Arsenal will simply want to keep on rolling as they head into a crucial December.

The Gunners are the firm favourites to win the Premier League title, according to the Opta supercomputer, which ranks their chances of doing so at 80.4%; Arsenal can be backed to win the league on the Betfair sportsbook at 4/9.

Chelsea, at 14/1 are definitely seen as outsiders, even though they are, as it stands, Arsenal's nearest challengers. The Blues have been boosted by the return to fitness of Cole Palmer, who is available to play after recovering from injury. However, the supercomputer ranks their chances of winning the title at just 4.8%, with Enzo Maresca's team most likely to finish second (19.6%) or third (19.6%).

But enough about the wider title race! What about this match?

Here, we have used Opta data to highlight some potential selections and pick out a bet builder.

Arsenal given narrow edge over Chelsea

Arsenal are rated slight favourites by the Opta supercomputer, with the Gunners coming out on top in 42.4% of the model's 10,000 data-led simulations. Chelsea, meanwhile, have a 32.2% win probability, with the threat of a draw coming in at 25.4%.

Mikel Arteta's team are also the favourites on the sportsbook, at 1/1, while a Chelsea win can be backed at 11/5.

Chelsea have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L7), and are winless in seven (D2 L5), since a 2-0 victory at Emirates Stadium in August 2021. Having lost six of their seven top-flight away games against Chelsea between 2013 and 2018 (D1), Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge (W3 D3).

Despite being just the fifth time Arsenal have faced Chelsea while top of the table in the Premier League, the Gunners have won each of the previous four such meetings - including an emphatic 5-0 triumph in April 2024.

However, Chelsea have managed to draw their last two home games against Arsenal. The draw is a tempting 2/1 on the sportsbook, while the Blues are available to avoid defeat in the double chance market at 8/13.

The Blues' home form this season is not particularly strong, even if they did enjoy a memorable European night at Stamford Bridge this week. Just 43.5% of Chelsea's league points this season have come in home games (10/23), with only Tottenham (28%) earning a lower share of their points at home.

Two stern defences to be put to the test

There has rightly been much fanfare about Arsenal's defence this season, as they have only conceded only six league goals, keeping seven clean sheets.

But both of these teams can in fact boast excellent defensive records, with Chelsea having only shipped 11 goals, keeping six shutouts. Chelsea are admittedly overperforming slightly based on their expected goals against (xGA) of 14.3. Arsenal, meanwhile, have a league-leading 6.2 xGA - an average of just 0.5 xGA per game.

The Gunners' 4-1 rout of Tottenham last week sent them joint-top of the scoring charts, with 24 goals, level with Manchester City and one more than Chelsea's tally of 23. However, Chelsea's 22.5 expected goals (xG) is the highest in the division. So those solid records for both defences are set to be put to the test, providing an intriguing dilemma in the goal markets.

Over 2.5 goals comes in at 20/23, but there have been over 3.5 goals in Arsenal's last three fixtures. With Arsenal's defence weakened by Gabriel Magalhaes' injury and Chelsea's threat going forward, punters may like the price of 23/10 for over 3.5 goals. Both teams to score, meanwhile, returns 8/11, while BTTS - No comes in at 11/10.

Both teams rank highly for shots on target

Chelsea have opened the scoring in each of their last seven Premier League games. It is their longest run of scoring first since April 2024 and the Blues are available at 13/10 to net first.

The Blues have also generated the most shots on target in the division, with 67 (5.5 per game). They are currently 6/4 to have five shots on target here, and 11/4 to muster at least six, while 7+ can be backed at 5/1. However, Arsenal are facing, on average, just seven shots per game (84 in total).

That means it may not be the best game to back Chelsea players to hit high individual tallies, and - especially given Arsenal go in as slight favourites - there may be more appeal looking at markets featuring the Gunners' attacks.

Arsenal are averaging 5.0 SoT per match in the league this season. Backing the Gunners to maintain that average offers 5/6, while 4+ comes back at 1/3. A bolder 6+ SoT for Arsenal returns 9/5. Arteta's team have mustered 23 shots on target across their last three league games - eight v Burnley, seven v Sunderland and eight v Spurs.

Another way to attack it is the market for goalkeeper saves. Chelsea's shot-stopper, expected to be Robert Sanchez, can be backed to make 3+ saves at 4/6 and 4+ saves at 13/8, prices which both hold appeal given the statistics above.

If you do fancy Chelsea to make an attacking impact, David Raya is on course for another golden glove and he can be backed to make 3+ saves at 10/11, while it is 9/4 for Arsenal's goalkeeper to make at least four stops.

Eze, Saka & Fernandez primed to make an impact

Eberechi Eze is a man in form. The former Crystal Palace star delivered a stellar display as his hat-trick inspired Arsenal to a 4-1 thrashing of Spurs. Eze then supplied a wonderful ball over the top to play in Gabriel Martinelli to score Arsenal's third goal against Bayern. For punters confident that fine run of form will continue, he can be backed to score or assist at a tempting 7/5 price.

The playmaker has scored four goals in his last four league games for Arsenal, having 4+ shots in each of his last two games (four v Sunderland, six v Spurs). He is 7/2 to have at least four shots again, and 7/5 for 3+.

Eze had four shots on target against Spurs, the most efforts on target managed by a midfielder in any Premier League game in 2025/26.

In fact, Eze leads the way for shots on target among midfielders (12), level with Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez. Eze to have one shot on target returns 4/6, while 2+ comes in at 3/1 and 3+ offers 11/1. Backing Eze to score anytime returns 11/4 - and he is available at 19/1 to net at least twice.

Fernandez, on the other hand, is 11/10 to manage one attempt on target and 5/1 for 2+.

As well as tying Eze for shots on target this season, Fernandez found the net against Burnley last weekend. He was a selection we liked against Barcelona for the shots markets midweek and the Argentina international duly obliged with four attempts, one of which found the target.

The other player we particularly like in this area is Arsenal talisman Bukayo Saka. Even if Eze stole the show last week, Arsenal's wing wizard continues to shine. Saka has had two shots on target in each of his last three Premier League appearances. Backing him to maintain that run brings in 13/5, while he is 9/1 for 3+ SoT and 4/7 for 1+. The England star has netted four goals for club and country in the past month, so backing Saka to score or assist at 13/10 could hold appeal.

Saka racked up a massive 30 league assists across the previous three seasons but is still somehow waiting for his first this time around. That is despite creating 19 chances in the league this season - the most chances created by any player yet to provide an assist in the division, so surely that luck will turn soon enough.

Saka did, like Eze, create a goal against Bayern in Europe, providing the assist for Jurrien Timber's opener, and will be eager to make an impact here in a crunch clash.

Elsewhere, it's worth noting Leandro Trossard has a superb record against Chelsea. Only against Liverpool (six) has the Belgian netted more EPL goals than the Blues (four), while his next strike will bring up his 50th in the competition.

However, there is some uncertainty over his fitness after he went off in the first half against Bayern.

Martin Odegaard did return from injury in that game, though. The Norway international has been involved in more Premier League goals against Chelsea than any other opponent (seven). He has never lost in eight games against them (W6 D2), either. An Odegaard goal or assist is available at 23/10.

Having opened his Arsenal account against Bayern, Noni Madueke will be eager to show what he can do against his former club. The winger is a tempting 9/5 to provide a goal involvement and 11/4 to score anytime. Super-sub Martinelli, meanwhile, is 10/3 to score.

Though Palmer is now back to be called on, other Chelsea attackers have been stepping up in his absence.

Chief among those has been Pedro Neto, who scored and struck the woodwork against Burnley, before creating a goal against Barca.

Neto has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League games (three goals, two assists) and is looking to score in three in a row for the first time. The winger has also been involved in three goals in his last four starts against Arsenal (two goals, one assist), netting the Blues' equaliser in this exact fixture last season.

Neto goal involvement returns 13/5, with the ex-Wolves attacker available at 5/6 for 2+ shots and 11/4 for 3+.

Liam Delap got his first Stamford Bridge goal by netting Chelsea's third against Barca, and a price of 11/4 to score anytime could tempt some punters, as could 7/2 for Estevao to find the net. The teenage sensation is having a great time of it for club and country, having also scored against Barca in midweek. He is 2/1 to score or assist.

Consider Joao Pedro in foul markets

With the stakes high, this could be a feisty London derby.

Anthony Taylor is the referee for this one, and only against Liverpool (670) and Manchester United (555) has he awarded more fouls than against Arsenal (512), with Chelsea ranking fifth on the list (487), after Everton (502).

In fact, Taylor has dished out seven red cards to Arsenal - three more than he has done against any other team in the Premier League. So, there could certainly be value in assessing the fouls or cards markets.

Joao Pedro, whether he features up top or possibly behind the striker, could be a prime candidate to take some hits from Arsenal's defence. In seven of his last 10 Premier League matches, the Brazilian has won 2+ fouls, including each of his previous three matches. He is 4/6 to draw two fouls and 15/8 to win three free-kicks.

There are plenty of tricky customers on show for Chelsea, though. Estevao returns 4/9 for 1+ foul won and 2/1 for 2+, while the speedy Jamie Gittens is 4/7 to be felled twice.

On the flip side, Saka has won 23 fouls this season. He is 4/9 to win two more here, and 13/10 for 3+. Eze is at 10/11 for 2+, while Madueke could come in for some rough treatment from his old club-mates. He is available at 13/8 to win 2+ fouls.

Fernandez looks set to be in the thick of the action. He has conceded 10 and won 13 fouls this term - the Argentine is 1/5 to give away 1+, and 1/1 for 2+ fouls committed, while backing him to win 2+ fouls returns 10/11 and 3+ is 3/1. An intriguing way of backing the 24-year-old could be to punt on him to score or be carded, at 15/8.

Moises Caicedo and Martin Zubimendi will also be expected to do plenty of work in midfield.

Caicedo averages 1.2 fouls per game this season and is 2/5 to concede two free-kicks and 7/5 to give away 3+. Zubimendi, meanwhile, has given away 16 fouls in 12 appearances (1.3 per match). He is 4/5 to concede 2+ and 11/4 for 3+.It is 23/10 for Caicedo to be shown a card, while Zubimendi is 11/4 to receive one.

Opta's 10/1 Chelsea v Arsenal Bet builder

Chelsea GK 4+ saves

Enzo Fernandez 1+ Shot on target