Opta Predicts Man City v Liverpool: Salah the star of the show in 40/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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This fixture is one that plenty would have had pencilled in for a Premier League title decider at the start of the season.

But instead, the teams are enjoying and enduring wildly different fortunes in in the 2024-25 campaign. Let's get stuck in to see where the value is ahead of Liverpool's visit to Manchester City.

Liverpool to snap away streak

Manchester City come into this match 17 points behind their opposition and with just a 0.09% chance of retaining their Premier League title, according to the Opta supercomputer.

With hopes of rekindling a title race over, the more pressing concern for them is the very real possibility that they drop out of the Champions League qualification spots entirely.

Currently fourth in the table, City trail third-placed Nottingham Forest by three points at the time of writing, while Bournemouth and Chelsea - fifth and sixth respectively - are just a point behind them. By the time this game kicks off, it is mathematically possible that City could have dropped down to seventh.

While the supercomputer gives them a 76% chance of a top-four finish, it's a considerable drop-off from the Manchester City of recent times. Another measure of that is their slide from first to seventh in Opta's Power Rankings since the start of the season, with Liverpool now taking top spot.

Manchester City are not complete no-hopers this season though. They come into Sunday's game with six victories in their last 11 matches in all competitions, while only Liverpool and Arsenal have picked up more Premier League points than them (17) since Christmas.

But when you consider that four of those wins came against League Two Salford, League One Leyton Orient - against whom they trailed for 40 minutes - Ipswich Town and Club Brugge, their form looks significantly less fearsome for a side like Liverpool.

Against more accomplished opposition, it has been a different story for Manchester City, having failed to win any of their eight matches (D2 L6) against teams who currently rank 13th and above in Opta's Power Rankings. Their last eight matches in all competitions include a 4-2 loss to Paris Saint-Germain, a 5-1 defeat away to Arsenal and suffering a 6-3 aggregate defeat to Real Madrid over the course of two legs.

That City barely had a sniff in their 3-1 second-leg defeat at Real Madrid on Wednesday furthered the argument that they were no longer good enough to compete against the best. Despite needing to win on the night to stand any chance of progression, Pep Guardiola's side failed to have a shot on target until the 76th minute when they were already three goals down. Just four of the 12 shots they did have came from inside the penalty area, which illustrates how much they struggled to impose themselves.

That they come into this game with a growing list of injuries doesn't help either. John Stones went off after eight minutes at the Bernabeu on Wednesday, while Erling Haaland was only fit enough for the bench and Manuel Akanji is also out.

With all of the above considered, we simply have to go with Liverpool in the win/draw/win market at 6/5.

While Arne Slot's side have not been the juggernaut expected of a team eight points clear at the top in recent weeks - they have won one of their last four matches in all competitions and two out of eight away - it is important to apply some perspective here.

An off-colour performance saw them held to a 2-2 draw at Villa Park on Wednesday, but that was more down to profligacy than a lack of creativity having dominated the expected goals battle, racking up 2.5 xG compared to their opponents' 0.67.

That draw also extended Liverpool's unbeaten run to 22 matches in the Premier League (W15 D7), while they have taken 14 points from their last 18 available - not bad for a team having a blip.

When comparing Liverpool and Manchester City, it is also worth highlighting the level of dominance the former had over the latter in their 2-0 victory at Anfield in December, as can be seen in the above graphic.

City's weak mentality could lead to goalfest

The mentality of Manchester City's players has been criticised plenty this season and, with their ever-growing propensity for in-game collapses, it is hard to defend them.

They have conceded 20 goals after the 75th minute in all competitions this season, which is six more than in the entire 2023/24 campaign. Their 3-2 home defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League earlier this month was the fifth time this season that City have lost a game in which they have gone ahead. They have also dropped 14 points from winning positions in the Premier League - the eighth-most in the division.

The 5-1 defeat away to Arsenal, meanwhile, was another example of complete defensive capitulation. Since the beginning of November, City have conceded more goals in all competitions (47) than any team in Europe's top five leagues. At an average of 1.88 goals conceded per game in that 25-match period, that is at least 0.76 more than any other season under Guardiola.

When you consider that Liverpool have scored in each of their last 22 matches, the -1 handicap looks tempting for the league leaders at 3/1.

Though given that City's implosions have tended to come in the second half of matches - they haven't been more than a goal down at half-time in any of their last 21 games in all competitions - the draw at half-time is one to consider at 7/5.

Elsewhere, over 3.5 goals is worth a bet at 10/11, having landed in 11 of City's last 12 matches in all competitions and 10 of Liverpool's last 15 league games.

Superb Salah to have his say

It is hard to find new superlatives to describe the season Mohamed Salah is having. The Egyptian has scored 29 goals and contributed 20 assists in 37 appearances in all competitions.

He registered a goal and an assist last time out at Villa Park and, in doing so, became the first player in Premier League history to score and assist in 10 different games in one season. He is also the first player to do so in one of Europe's big five leagues since Lionel Messi in 2014-15 for Barcelona (11).

The assist, meanwhile, meant he became the first player with 15 or more league goals (24) and 15 or more league assists (15) in a Premier League season since Eden Hazard in 2018-19 (16 goals, 15 assists).

He has scored at least one goal in each of his last seven matches in all competitions and, at an odds-against price, could be the bet of the weekend to score here at 6/5. Having also laid on three assists in his last four matches in all competitions, he looks a fair price to contribute another at 11/5.

Salah typically thrives in this fixture and has been involved more Premier League goals against Manchester City (13) since Guardiola took charge in 2016-17 than any other player in the competition has managed, with eight goals and five assists. At the Etihad Stadium specifically, he has either scored (two) or assisted (two) in each of his last four league appearances at the venue.

With Haaland's fitness doubtful, City could once again start with Omar Marmoush as their centre forward. Should they do so, taking him on with Salah in a Build Ups bet for goals or assists could be a decent avenue to go down, given Salah's odds-against prices.

But it is worth pointing out that Liverpool have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last four matches, while City have not failed to score in 16. Looking at potential goalscorers for the hosts, Josko Gvardiol sticks out as great value at 11/1.

The Croatian is City's third-highest league goalscorer with five, while only Haaland, Phil Foden and Savinho have had more shots than him (34) and he has generated the third-highest xG in the squad from those attempts (4.16).

Gvardiol has had five shots in his last five league games, including three in the defeat to Arsenal earlier this month, and is 13/5 to register two or more shots here. Given that 14 of his 34 shots have been headed this season, the 13/5 about him to have at least one headed shot is worth a look. He is also 18/1 to score a header.

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