Opta Predicts Man City v Man Utd: Back the Red Devils in 8/1 bet builder | OneFootball

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Premier League football is back following the first international break of 2025/26, and this weekend's action is headlined by Sunday's Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium.

Many believed Manchester City were back to something approaching their best when they started the season with a 4-0 rout of Wolves, but back-to-back defeats to Tottenham and Brighton & Hove Albion have left Pep Guardiola's side six points off the title pace already.

It is the first time Guardiola has accumulated as few as three points from the first three games of a campaign in his managerial career.

Manchester United are one point better off, though they needed a 97th-minute penalty from Bruno Fernandes to beat Burnley 3-2 before the break, having previously suffered a humiliating EFL Cup exit at the hands of Grimsby Town.

With neither side approaching the game in outstanding form, we have delved into the Opta stats to pick out some selections that could form a Manchester derby bet builder.

Tough to have complete confidence in City

Man City enter the derby as 4/6 favourites on the Betfair Sportsbook, a price that is largely in line with the Opta supercomputer's match simulations, 65.6% of which went the way of the hosts.

However, last season was the first time since 2020/21 that United avoided defeat against City home and away in the Premier League.

Late goals from Fernandes and Amad Diallo earned United a 2-1 triumph in the corresponding fixture at the Etihad last December, before the teams played out a dour goalless draw at Old Trafford in April.

Since 2015-16, the home team has ended on the winning side in just six of 20 top-flight Manchester derbies (four draws, 10 away wins). In that time, the only Premier League fixture to see more away victories is Crystal Palace versus Liverpool (12).

With that in mind, there could be value in finding ways to oppose Guardiola's men.

Remarkably, almost a quarter of City's total Premier League defeats under Guardiola (22%, 11 of 49) have come since the start of last November, and they are now in danger of losing three of their first four matches of a Premier League season for the first time since 1995/96, a campaign that ended in relegation.

In all competitions, United are unbeaten in their last four meetings with City (two wins, two draws), while they have won on six of their last 11 visits to the Etihad (one draw, four defeats).

While City carved through Wolves with ease on matchday one, with new midfielder Tijjani Reijnders earning plenty of plaudits, they have since come unstuck against better opposition.

City were lacklustre from the off in a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham in their home opener, while their most recent outing at Brighton saw them fail to attempt a single shot on target in the second-half, as they threw away a lead to lose 2-1.

United are 3/1 for victory, with the draw priced at 12/5. The Red Devils have inflicted 25% of Guardiola's total home defeats in the Premier League (four of 16), and are looking to register successive wins at the Etihad for the first time since 2021.

The underlying metrics show United have improved, at least as an attacking unit, in the early stages of the campaign. They led all Premier League teams for expected goals (xG) throughout the first three matchdays, with 6.8, while their 58 shots were at least 14 more than any other side (Bournemouth and Chelsea attempted 44).

It is the most shots United have registered during their first three games of a season since 2017/18 (60), when they finished second under Jose Mourinho.

Still, Man City are favourites and it would be understandable if punters were hesitant to back an away win, given Ruben Amorim has only overseen eight victories in 30 league matches as United boss, drawing seven and losing 15.

Half of those victories have come against promoted teams, and his side boast a win rate of just 16% against teams not promoted to the division that campaign (four wins in 25).

Therefore, punters may be tempted to guard against the draw by looking to the Double Chance market, where United are 1/1 to avoid defeat.

City goalkeeper should be kept busy

Another intriguing factor to throw into the mix could be the presence of new goalkeepers at both ends.

City completed a £26m deal to sign Italy international Gianluigi Donnarumma from Paris Saint-Germain on transfer deadline day, while long-serving Ederson was sold to Fenerbahce.

United, meanwhile, brought in Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp for £18m and have since allowed Andre Onana to join Trabzonspor on loan.

Excluding matchday one games, this could be only the third time in Premier League history that two teams have handed debuts to goalkeepers in the same match.

Both Donnarumma and Lammens are considered likely to start Sunday's game, though the latter's participation is slightly more questionable given his relative inexperience and the availability of Altay Bayindir - who has started the first three league games - as an alternative.

In Donnarumma, City have acquired one of the world's elite shot-stoppers, even if there are question marks over his distribution.

Over the last 10 seasons, since breaking into AC Milan's team in 2015, Donnarumma has prevented 40.6 goals, according to Opta's expected goals on target (xGoT) model. In that time, only Jan Oblak (45.4) and Brice Samba (41.0) have prevented more goals in Europe's top five leagues.

But the Euro 2020 winner could be set for a baptism of fire, given City's defensive fragility in the opening weeks of the season.

No team has faced more shots on target this campaign than Guardiola's men (15), with West Ham and Nottingham Forest facing the same number.

United are 8/5 to maintain that average by registering five or more shots on target, a price that may hold some appeal given they have averaged 5.3 efforts on target per game this term. Those bold enough to back the visitors for six or more shots on target can get double the price, at 16/5.

City's goal has not received adequate protection, and Guardiola also faces something of a selection headache in defence.

None of John Stones, Rico Lewis, Josko Gvardiol, Rayan Ait-Nouri and Abdukodir Khusanov featured for their national teams during the international break, and it remains to be seen how many of that quintet will be available.

James Trafford, who looks likely to be dropped, was forced into three saves by Wolves, the same amount by Spurs and five by Brighton. His total of 11 stops across the opening three matchdays ranked second among all Premier League goalkeepers, behind Guglielmo Vicario (13).

A price of 1/1 for City's goalkeeper (whoever starts) to make at least three saves could be a prudent play, given Trafford reached that figure in every match before the international break and United currently lead the league for shots. It is 5/2 for the City goalkeeper to make four or more saves.

United hope Lammens will be the answer to their long-running issues between the sticks, and it is 6/5 for the visiting goalkeeper to make four saves or more, but given the prices, backing the home shot-stopper to be busy offers greater value.

Rampant Haaland unlikely to be quiet

One of the major stories of the international break was Norway's 11-1 thrashing of Moldova in World Cup qualifying, a game that saw Erling Haaland help himself to five goals.

He became the first European player to score five times in a World Cup qualifier since Hans Krankl netted six for Austria against Malta in 1977. Haaland also recorded two assists and could have had a double hat-trick, had he not allowed substitute Thelo Aasgaard to take a 79th-minute penalty.

Despite City's underwhelming start, Haaland has, as he always tends to do, opened his club campaign in a prolific manner.

Having missed out on the Premier League Golden Boot for the first time last season, Haaland leads the way in 2025/26 as the only player on three goals after three matchdays.

Haaland also leads all players for xG (3.9) and shots (14) this season (14), and he boasts an excellent record against United.

He has nine goal involvements (six goals, three assists) in five league Manchester derbies, including a hat-trick in his first such match, as City thrashed their rivals 6-3 in October 2022.

Haaland only has more combined goals and assists in the Premier League against Wolves (10), so it is little surprise to see him odds-on to score anytime, at 4/5. Two of his three league goals this term have opened the scoring, against Wolves and Brighton, and he is 3/1 to net first again.

Haaland is 8/13 to score or assist, with his 13 Premier League goal involvements in 2025 being a team-high figure for City.

Omar Marmoush is second on that list with eight combined goals and assists, but he will miss Sunday's game with a knee injury, leaving City without a key secondary attacking threat, increasing the emphasis on Haaland further.

Haaland is 5/6 to register two shots on target, having managed five such efforts already this season. United forward Matheus Cunha is the only player to match that tally across the entire league, and he is a tempting 11/4 to hit the target on multiple occasions, though the Brazilian did limp out of their most recent match with a hamstring issue.

Cunha has hinted on social media that he expects to be involved, and he could be worth a glance to outshoot a rival on Betfair's Match Ups markets. Match Ups Multis are also available starting this weekend, allowing punters to combine various player-based bets from the same game.

Benjamin Sesko leads all United players at 21/10 to net anytime. The Slovenian has been limited to just 80 minutes across three substitute appearances in the Premier League since joining from RB Leipzig, and he is yet to hit the target with any of his four shots.

There could be a route into the starting lineup for Sesko after Mason Mount sustained a knock against Burnley, but Bryan Mbeumo - who is 16/5 to score anytime and 9/1 to net first - could be a better selection.

Both Cunha and Mbeumo have registered eight shots so far this campaign, putting them joint-first among United players, alongside skipper Fernandes.

The Portugal midfielder is 11/4 to get on the scoresheet and 8/5 to register a goal or an assist. Fernandes has created the most chances in the Premier League this season so far both overall (12) and from open play (eight). He has also scored in each of United's last three league wins against City, in March 2021, January 2023 and December 2024.

Fernandes is 7/2 for an assist, with his international team-mate Bernardo Silva one of several City players with a shorter price, at 16/5.

Action at both ends likely

Though the most recent Manchester derby was a drab stalemate, there is every reason to believe more goalmouth action is in store.

While we have already covered City's issues at the back, United's defensive work also inspires little confidence.

Since that goalless derby draw in April, United have only managed one clean sheet in 11 Premier League outings.

Even that match - a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on the final day of last season - saw United play 45 minutes against 10 men and benefit from a Morgan Rogers goal being controversially disallowed.

In addition, eight of the last 10 Manchester derbies across all competitions - including back-to-back FA Cup finals in 2023 and 2024 - have seen both teams score, with the same number of games in that span containing over 2.5 goals.

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