Opta projections on Newcastle United Champions League chances after 5th round completed | OneFootball

How will Newcastle United end up in the Champions League this 2025/26 season?

Five matches now played already.

The 2-1 defeat to Barcelona at St James’ Park.

Followed by the 4-0 away win against Union S-G.

Next up a 3-0 victory over Benfica at SJP.

Then at St James’ Park again, an excellent 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao.

Marseille away on Tuesday night and despite leading 1-0 at the break, Newcastle United ended up losing this one 2-1.

Each of the 36 clubs playing four games away and four at home.

Newcastle United still to face Bayer Leverkusen (H), PSV Eindhoven (A) and PSG (A).

Opta have now done their updated Champions League 2025-26 Projections for Newcastle United and the other 35 clubs, following the completion of all this week’s fifth round matches (see all 18 results below).

These are the updated predictions via Opta – 26 November 2025:

So the updated Opta predictions for Newcastle United:

Predicted final league position – 16th.

Predicted number of points after the eight league matches – 12.65 points from a possible 24.

Percentage chance of ending up very top of league stage after the eight games – A 0.02% possibility of doing so.

Percentage chance of ending up in the play-offs – A 82.44% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of top 8 and automatic qualification for last 16 – A 16.59% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of reaching the quarter-finals – A 28.01% chance of getting to the last eight.

Percentage chance of reaching the semi-finals – A 11.97% chance of getting to the last four.

Percentage chance of reaching the final – A 4.67% chance of getting to the final.

Percentage chance of winning the Champions League – A 1.83% chance of winning the whole thing! (Opta rating Newcastle United as the twelfth most likely winners…)

Champions League results in the fifth round of matches:

Tuesday 25 November 

Ajax 0 Benfica 2

Galatasaray 0 Union S-G 1

Bodo/Glimt 2 Juventus 3

Borussia Dortmund 4 Villarreal 0

Chelsea 3 Barcelona 0

Man City 0 Bayer Leverkusen 2

Marseille 2 Newcastle United 1

Napoli  2 Qarabag 0

Slavia Prague 0 Athletic Club Bilbao 0

Wednesday 26 November

FC Copenhagen 3 Kairat Almaty 2

Pafos 2 Monaco 2

Arsenal 3 Bayern Munich 1

Atletico Madrid 2 Inter Milan 1

Eintracht Frankfurt 0 Atalanta 3

Liverpool 1 PSV 4