Opta simulator predicts whether Liverpool will qualify directly for Champions League round of 16 | OneFootball

Liverpool sit just outside the top eight positions in the league phase of the Champions League, with the Reds aiming to finish above the dividing line for direct entry to the last 16 of the tournament.

Arne Slot’s side have six points from three matches prior to tonight’s showdown against Real Madrid, who are among five teams still to have their 100% record intact, and a win for LFC would leave them nicely on course to bypass the banana skin of a knockout play-off round in February.

The league phase reaches the halfway point this week, at which juncture we’ll have a strong idea as to which teams will finish where in the final table, and a data-led projection has predicted who’ll make the top eight and who’ll exit the competition altogether in January.

Where will Liverpool finish in the Champions League?

Prior to the beginning of matchday four this evening, Opta Analyst – who initially classified us among the favourites to win the trophy outright – has crunched the numbers to calculate a projected final table for the league phase of the Champions League.

The good news for Liverpool fans is that the Reds are predicted to clinch the eighth and final berth for a direct passage to the round of 16, with their total of 15.44 expected points seeing them pip Chelsea and Borussia Dortmund for a top-8 finish.

All six Premier League teams are projected to end up in the top 12, with Arsenal and Manchester City also expected to skip the knockout play-off round.

(Photo by Christian Kaspar-Bartke/Getty Images)

Liverpool must aim for direct entry to Champions League last 16

A team’s finishing position in the league phase of the Champions League isn’t the be-all and end-all, as we discovered last season when finishing top at that stage but bowing out to eventual trophy winners Paris Saint-Germain in the round of 16.

It’s easy to forget that Luis Enrique’s side were only 15th in that table and had even been on the verge of failing to make the knockout rounds altogether, so it wouldn’t be calamitous for Liverpool not to make the top eight.

However, every Reds fan would surely prefer to finish as high as possible and avoid the bear pit of a February play-off, even with our Carabao Cup elimination reducing the likelihood of fixture congestion at that stage of the campaign.

Based on an average of two points per game being required to finish eighth or higher, LFC need 10 more in their five remaining league phase matches against Real Madrid, PSV Eindhoven (both at home), Inter Milan, Marseille (both away) and Qarabag (home).

Finishing top would be desirable but not paramount. Getting into the top eight should be Liverpool’s minimum objective as they continue their Champions League campaign tonight against Xabi Alonso’s side.