Opta Supercomputer vs Betfair Sportsbook: Back Liverpool/Man City in title forecast at 100/30 | OneFootball

International breaks come round pretty frequently at this time of the year, much to the frustration of domestic football fans. But they afford us an opportunity to take stock and see who is performing above expectations, who should be doing better and where the value is in the outright markets.

There has been a month and four Premier League matches since the previous break and plenty has happened, with lots of narratives having shifted.

So, with 11 games gone, let's have a look at some of the winners and losers from the most recent period of the season and, importantly, how that could inform value bets in the main outright markets.

Premier League Title

Arne Slot's Liverpool still offering you value

Now is the time to get behind Liverpool to win the Premier League. They have once again been the biggest winners in terms of the title race over recent weeks and also represent the best value in the outright market by some distance.

Their 2-0 win against Aston Villa in their last match before the November international break was their ninth victory in 11 league games so far this season and, since Arne Slot took over, Liverpool have won 15 of their 17 matches in all competitions.

They have been helped by their best players delivering their best form, including Mohamed Salah who is currently enjoying his most productive season since joining the club. The Egyptian is averaging 1.31 goals and assists per 90 minutes in the league.

Liverpool have also been able to transition seamlessly through injuries to key players - something that cannot be said of certain title rivals - with their deputies picking up where others left off.

One such example has been with the performance of Caomhin Kelleher, who has expertly stepped into Alisson's shoes. Kelleher has recorded a save percentage of 76.47% - fifth-highest of any goalkeeper to have played four or more matches.

Slot also deserves credit for tactical tweaks that have allowed the Liverpool juggernaut to keep rolling despite missing certain individuals. Darwin Nunez, for example, has stepped into the team in the absence of Diogo Jota and performed well despite the two being very different players. The Uruguayan has scored two goals and supplied one assist in his last four league starts this season.

That Liverpool have managed to pull off the results they have, despite having had the fourth-most difficult run of fixtures since the last international break according to Opta data, makes it all the more impressive.

Slot's side have dropped just two points from matches against Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa in that sequence, with the average Opta team rating of those opponents coming in at 91.4. What this impressive period has done is make Liverpool clear favourites for the Premier League title for the first time this season, both in terms of the sportsbook and Opta's supercomputer predictions.

But even after taking favouritism, they are still worth backing at 13/10. Their sportsbook price to win the title gives an implied probability of 43.5%, while Opta's supercomputer rates their title-winning chances at 60.3% - up from just 11.1% a month ago and 5.2% in pre-season.

Alternatively, the Liverpool/Manchester City straight forecast looks good at 10/3, which works out at an implied probability of 23.1%. Considering Liverpool's probability of winning the title and Manchester City's probability of finishing second (47.9%) according to the supercomputer, their combined probability of finishing first and second respectively works out at 28.9%.

Maresca's Blues are showing they can compete

Chelsea are also worthy of a mention in this section as the only other team in the Premier League whose chance of winning the title became greater over the last four matches, according to Opta's predictive model.

While the modest probability rise from 0.1% to 0.3% hardly screams progress, they have achieved that having had the second-most difficult run of matches since the previous international break.

But despite their impressive recent run, their price of 18/1 (implied probability of 5.3%) to win their first title since 2016-17 is still too short to get behind.

Historic Pep run has hurt Man City

The only place to start here is by highlighting Manchester City. They are going into the international break with Pep Guardiola having lost four straight matches in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career.

While just two of those defeats came in the league, it has been a damaging period for the side who the supercomputer rated as 83% likely to win a fifth straight Premier League title in pre-season. They are now given a 34.3% chance by the same model and are priced at 9/4 on the sportsbook.

Notably, Erling Haaland's goals have dried up, having scored just two in his last six league appearances having originally become the fastest player in competition history to hit 10 league goals earlier this season.

City have also habitually struggled without Rodri, having earned just 1.7 points per game in matches without him compared to 2.6 with him since the start of last season. They have won just three of their six league games since his injury in September.

Gunners title chances plummet

A word too on Arsenal, who have seen their title chances drop from 19% four games ago to just 5% following a run of four winless league games.

Mikel Arteta's side trail leaders Liverpool by nine points and their likeliest finishing place is now third, according to the supercomputer. They finish in that exact position in over half (52.3%) of our season simulations.

Top Four Finish

Time to back big odds Fulham

Without wanting to stray too heavily into the abstract, the recent period has been a win for the competitiveness of the Premier League with just four points separating third and 13th. In seven of the last eight previous seasons, that gap has been at least nine points at the same stage.

The benefit of the division being in such a long concertina is that there is huge potential for value in this market.

Fulham have to be considered winners here after taking seven points from their last four matches and losing just three times this season against Manchester United, Manchester City and Aston Villa.

Since the previous international break, they have cut the gap between themselves and the top four from three points to just one. As a result, their likelihood of claiming a top-four spot has risen from 1.9% to 2.8%, which is an increase of almost 50%. At 50/1 (implied probability of 2%), their price could soon come in with a continuation of their form.

Forest surprise, but Newcastle now ones to watch

Nottingham Forest are another noteworthy story, having been given just a 12% chance of finishing in the top half prior to the last four matches. A run of three wins from four - and hugely positive start to the season - has now given them a 36.6% top-half chance and 1.4% top-four probability according to the supercomputer. Their remote chance of claiming a Champions League spot is reflected in their price of 33/1.

Finally, Newcastle (9/2) are up to a 21.7% chance of finishing in the top four from 17% at the previous international break. With Eddie Howe's side rated as having the fifth-easiest run in their next 10 matches, they could be a team to watch out for in the run up to the festive period.

Inconsistent Spurs are worth avoiding

Tottenham are the big offenders here and are worth avoiding in the outright market, with the supercomputer predicting their top-four probability at just 10.5% - down from 17.6%. Given their supercomputer probability, their price of 3/1 suggests a lay could be the way to go here.

Spurs have struggled for consistency this season, with a run of three victories and three defeats in their last six league games dragging them down to 10th - three points behind the top four.

Having had the sixth-easiest set of fixtures, as per Opta, from the start of the season to now, that doesn't bode well for the future.

Relegation

Sean Dyche's side have turned the tables but beware of fixture difficulty

A relative upturn in fortunes for Everton means that they are now outperforming their price to be relegated. Sean Dyche's side have lost just one of their last four matches, which has seen their supercomputer relegation probability cut from 21.5% to 18.8%.

Given that the Toffees are 9/4 and fourth favourites to go down - giving an implied probability of 30.8% - there is a significant gap between the two.

The supercomputer suggests that their likeliest finishing position at this stage is 16th and they now have a healthy 46.2% chance of finishing above the bottom five positions.

Championship beckons (already) for Saints and Tractor Boys

Once again, it is teams promoted from the Championship last season finding things tough in the Premier League. The combined total of points accrued by those teams at this stage (22) is the second-fewest in the last 10 seasons.

Of those points, bottom-of-the-league Southampton have earned just four of them having lost nine of their opening 11 matches. Russell Martin's side are already four points from safety and seen as near certainties for relegation, being given a 94.9% chance of doing so - up from 89.7% at the previous international break. They are unsurprisingly favourites for the drop at 2/15.

Ipswich are underperforming their price to go down, even after a famous victory at Tottenham last weekend. That was their first win of the season, but the supercomputer still gives a likelihood of 70.7% that they will go straight back down - significantly up from 58.8% four games ago. They are most likely to finish 19th and as a result there could still be juice in their price of 7/10 to be relegated.