Palmeiras favourites: see their chances for the Brazilian title | OneFootball

Palmeiras reaches the final stretch of the 2025 Brasileirão as the clear favorite. According to projections from UFMG, the alviverde team has a 74.8% chance of lifting the trophy, well ahead of Flamengo (21.7%). Cruzeiro appears with 3.4%, while Mirassol holds an almost impossible chance of 0.009%.

See also: All the news from Gazeta Esportiva See the news about the 2025 Brasileirão Check out the Gazeta Esportiva channel on YouTube Follow Gazeta Esportiva on Instagram

The statistical snapshot matches the standings: the leader has 68 points in 31 games, three more than the rubro-negro (65/31), and still has one game in hand compared to the other two contenders.

The next round holds the storyline that could shift the odds. In Mirassol vs Palmeiras, the leader faces a surprising and strong opponent at home, who is clearly dreaming of a spot in the 2026 Libertadores.

At the Maracanã, Flamengo hosts the desperate Santos—fighting against relegation—aiming for a unique scenario: to win and hope for the leader to drop points. With 65 points in 31 matches, the Rubro-negro has seven games left to play—the same as Palmeiras—and the ability to apply pressure.

Cruzeiro’s mathematical survival depends on a short but heavy word: performance. With 63 points in 32 games, there are only six rounds left and a maximum of 81 points possible by the end of the championship. The match against Fluminense therefore becomes an elimination game within their own campaign: a slip would drop the 3.4% chance to a level close to irrelevance, while a win keeps the team barely alive, hoping for a misstep from the leaders.

Standings and remaining matches

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.