Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back Burnley to lose again in goalfest at 10/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD17 on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League matchday 17 on Saturday...

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

Newcastle v Chelsea Tip - Goals to flow on Tyneside

Newcastle v ChelseaSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

There have been Over 2.5 goals in eight of Newcastle's last nine Premier League games and that's surely where interest in this game begins for bettors. Further back, and across all competitions, it's 16 of their last 21 seeing three or more goals (76%).

It's a similar story for Chelsea with 16 of their last 22 in all tournaments seeing Over 2.5 goals (73%). Cole Palmer's return is a great positive with the England man managing three goals in just 380 minutes of action this season. The Premier League is averaging 2.86 goals per-game this season and it's clear these two sides tend to be involved in above average games.

Brighton v Sunderland Tip - Black Cats may finally regress

Brighton v SunderlandSaturday, 15:00

What impact will the African Cup of Nations have on Sunderland's fantastic start to the season? After last weekend's derby win they sit eighth on 26 points, 13 points clear of the relegation zone and just two points off the top four. However, six of their players in Noah Sadiki, Reinildo Mandava, Arthur Masuaku, Bertrand Traore, Habib Diarra and Chemsdine Talbi will be away at the AFCON - twice as many as any other side.

Will this be the period when Sunderland regress to the mean in terms of their underlying numbers? They are overperforming their expected goals against by +5.87 goals, with only Aston Villa posting a bigger difference.

Brighton can cover a 2.5 goal line by themselves (both scoring and conceding) and a pro-goals bet is always recommended when the Seagulls are involved at these prices. Twenty-two of their last 31 Premier League matches have produced Over 2.5 goals winners (71%).

Bournemouth v Burnley Tip - Back Cherries win at 10/1

Bournemouth v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

It's now seven straight Premier League defeats for Scott Parker's Burnley. And it comes as no surprise when they've conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches. However, we're not going to get rich quick backing Bournemouth at 1/2, especially as they haven't won in seven league games since the end of October. Burnley have been behind at both half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches but Bournemouth HT/FT is just 11/10 and it definitely feels forced backing that at the prices.

Instead, let's get Bournemouth onside at a double figure price. Burnley may be losing games but that hasn't stopped Zian Flemming getting on the scoresheet with the Dutchman finding the back of the net in his last four away games. Antoine Semenyo had hit a bit of dry patch in-terms of goal involvements but he stopped the rot with a strike at Old Trafford and leads the Cherries with 10 goals and assists in 15 games this season. Backing Flemming, Semenyo and a Bournemouth win will see us get paid at 10/1.

Man City v West Ham Tip - Back City to score lots of goals

Man City v West HamSaturday, 15:00

Manchester City have been winning at both half-time and full-time in six of their last seven Premier League matches and it's no wonder when they've scored at least three goals in six of their last seven league games. They've got a great record against West Ham having won their last five Premier League meetings, scoring at least three goals each time. So let's back City to score Over 2.5 goals and add Erling Haaland to find the back of the net if City are going to grab at least three goals. He's scored nine league goals against the Hammers - only against Wolves has he scored more (10).

Wolves v Brentford Tip - Back Wolves to lose again with security

Wolves v BrentfordSaturday, 15:00

It's nine straight Premier League defeats for Wolves and five in a row for new boss Rob Edwards. Overall it's 14 defeats in 16 and the questions have moved on from whether Wolves will go down to the chances of them breaking the infamous Derby low points record.

So how do we profit when Brentford come to town? We can back them on the nose at 1/1 or we could try and be clever and take the 4/1 it's a draw at half-time and Brentford go on to win. It's a bet that's won in Wolves' last six games. However, given we got league leaders Arsenal at 17/5 for the same bet last week, I'm not keen on taking the Bees at only a slightly bigger price. So I think the best route given the prices is to back Brentford -0.25 on the Asian Handicap at 1.83. The risk averse bet will mean we'll get half our stake back if the match finishes in a draw.

Tottenham v Liverpool Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Tottenham v LiverpoolSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

No team has got a better strike rate than Tottenham for Over 2.5 goals with 69% and that has to be the bet here. Five of their last six Premier League games have seen three or more goals, stemming from their inability to keep them out, having conceded at least two in five of their last six league matches.

Across all competitions 12 of their last 16 games have seen Over 2.5 goals winners (75%) as the pressure increases on Thomas Frank following last weekend's 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest. 75% of Liverpool's away league games have seen three or more goals (six of eight) with the only two that didn't coming when the opposition picked up a red card. Mark O'Haire is also backing goals in the early evening Premier League KO, read why here.

Everton v Arsenal Tip - Back a low scoring game

Everton v ArsenalSaturday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Arsenal bounced back from their Aston Villa setback with victory over Wolves but it wasn't plain sailing at all, with two own goals, both in the last 20 minutes, including one in injury-time. This will be Arsenal's eighth match in the last 27 days and you wonder if the schedule is catching up with them. They're already very resolute away from home, with 19 of their last 30 Premier League games away Under 2.5 goals since the beginning of last season, and they've conceded just 10 in 16 games this season.

A total of 63% of Everton's matches have finished Under 2.5 goals including against all of Man City, Aston Villa and Chelsea - the rest of the top four.

Leeds v Crystal Palace Tip - Back more Elland Road goals

Leeds v Crystal PalaceSaturday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Leeds are another side with the best Over 2.5 goals rate in their games in the Premier League this season with 69% and that's the route to success here. Six of their eight home games at Elland Road have played out in this fashion, meaning nine of their last 11 overall have seen three or more goals.

Five of Crystal Palace's last six across all competitions have been winners and they've got to fancy their chances here against a Leeds defence that has shipped two or more goals in eight of their last 11 league games.

Now read Mike Norman's guide to Premier League matchday 17

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