Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back the best striker in the world for a brace at 2/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 13...

Brentford v Burnley Tip - Back Brentford and goals

Brentford v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

Despite conceding two late goals at Brighton last weekend to narrowly lose 2-1, Keith Andrews and Brentford seem to going along pretty nicely with six wins in their last 10 games across all competitions. Igor Thiago is the league's second top scorer with a return of nine goals in 12 games, Jordan Henderson looks a great leader in midfield with only centre-back Nathan Collins averaging more passes than him, whilst Liverpool may be regretting allowing Mr Reliable, in goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher, to leave the club.

Burnley meanwhile have lost their last three games to slip into the relegation zone. They've now lost eight of their 12 games this season with only bottom side Wolves losing more. Their issues are unsurprisingly at the back, having conceded at least two goals in six of their last seven games. Again, it should come as no surprise when they are conceding the most shots and the most expected goals in the division. Brentford are only 2/5 to win but we can increase that to 7/10 by also backing Over 1.5 goals.

Man City v Leeds Tip - Back a Haaland brace

Man City v LeedsSaturday, 15:00

Man City at home to a bottom half Premier League side? We've got to be backing the main man Erling Haaland, particularly after he was rested in midweek. He has 19 goals in just 16 starts across league and Europe this season and it is no surprise when he's getting off 4.2 shots per-game, with a huge 4.0 of those coming inside the penalty area and six-yard box. That spells trouble for Leeds.

The Whites have now lost five of their last six league matches to drop into the relegation zone and pressure is building on manager Daniel Farke. Their issue is coming at the back having shipped two or more goals in six of their last seven Premier League games. You can just tell Haaland is raring to go here. He's scored six braces already this season and is scoring 58% of City's goals - no player in Europe's top five leagues has a higher contribution.

Sunderland v Bournemouth Tip - Back Over 2.5 goals

Sunderland v BournemouthSaturday, 15:00

If Brighton are my favourite team for backing Over 2.5 goals, then Bournemouth are very close second. Only West Ham's matches, with 40 goals, have seen a greater number than Bournemouth's 39 this season, meaning six of their last seven have seen Over 2.5 goals. But it gets even better when they're playing away from home. A whopping 20 of their last 25 away games since the beginning of last season have seen three or more goals (80%) and as a result I can't pass up the opportunity to back it again at the prices here.

Sunderland have had a great start to life back in the Premier League as they reside in seventh but expect some regression with expected points ranking them just 15th. This has come from an overachievement at the back, with the Black Cats conceding six fewer goals than their xG suggests - the third highest in the league - meaning more goals are expected.

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

Everton v Newcastle Tip - Bet on entertainment

Everton v NewcastleSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Everton put on a great rearguard display to pick up victory at Old Trafford on Monday night after inexplicably going down to 10 men. It means back-to-back wins that has taken them to the lofty heights of 11th, once place above Liverpool in the league table!

And they should fancy their chances against a Newcastle Utd side who are winless away from home this season (three draws, three defeats). In fact it's now 10 Premier League away games since Newcastle tasted victory and that came against relegated Leicester City. The Toon Army's issue right now is too many goals at both ends of the pitch with their last five league games all seeing Over 2.5 goals. Further back, 11 of their last 15 across all competitions have seen three or more goals (73%).

Everton have only played six league games at their new stadium but they may becoming more settled and thus their games are more open with two of the last three seeing Over 2.5 goals winners.

Tottenham v Fulham Tip - Back goals, goals and more goals

Tottenham v FulhamSaturday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Despite twice taking the lead in Paris, Tottenham conceded within minutes both times and went on to lose a chaotic clash 5-3. It means they have now lost four of their last six games across all competitions with the only win in that period a 4-0 victory over a poor Copenhagen. It seems a long time since that impressive 2-0 win at Man City back in August and there are murmurings of discontent among the fanbase.

There's certainly no lack of entertainment in their games however, with five of their last six league games seeing Over 2.5 goals. It's a 67% hit rate for the season and only Liverpool and West Ham have a better success rate (both 75%). Fulham come here having picked up a crucial win over Sunderland to lift them three points clear of the drop. They've also been great for Over 2.5 goals backers, particularly away from home, with 12 of their last 16 seeing three or more goals (75%). The market can't split between Over or Under hence the value for me is with the Over. It's a bet that Dave Tindall is backing his match preview, too.

Now read more Premier League tips

Recommended bets