Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Make Moises the main man at 7/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 11...

Tottenham v Man Utd Tip - Move over Man Utd

Tottenham v Man UtdSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

Sixth versus eighth this season, 17th versus 15th from last season, Europa League Champions versus the runners-up. With Tottenham having home advantage I'm struggling to see why Man Utd are 7/5 favourites here. If both sides were of equal ability, which I think is the best we can say about Man Utd, then I would have them 2/1 to win this. Yes, there have been some concerns from Spurs fans about some performances under Frank but seven wins across League and Europe isn't to be sniffed at. Throw in that Utd have the sixth worst defence in terms of goals conceded and xG against, plus they've been beaten away by Thomas Frank's old side Brentford and taken to penalties by League Two Grimsby, then there's no way I can have the visitors this short.

Now read Lewis Jones' Spurs v Utd preview for an alternative view of the early KO

Everton v Fulham Tip - Back Grealish to cause trouble

Everton v FulhamSaturday, 15:00

Jack Grealish is terrorising opposition full-backs this season and so it's no wonder they're picking up yellow cards as a result. Daniel Munoz, Kyle Walker-Peters, Matty Cash and Mats Wieffer have all been booked when directly facing Grealish this season. And on Monday night, when Everton faced Sunderland's back five, both Trai Hume and Nordi Mukiele on the right-hand side were cautioned. It's no wonder referees are having to regularly reach for the pockets given Grealish is the most fouled player in the league at 3.3 times per-game. And it's no wonder Grealish is so heavily involved with 41% of Everton's attacks coming down the left-hand side - the joint third most in the division. Therefore, Fulham's right-back in Kenny Tete makes a very attractive bet for a card.

West Ham v Burnley Tip - Hammers to hammer home advantage

West Ham v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

Is everything rosey at West Ham after that impressive come-from-behind 3-1 victory over Newcastle United last weekend? I think it's far too early to say yes and back them at odds-on here. Let's not forget, Graham Potter's WestHam impressively won 3-0 away at Nottingham Forest at the end of August but then was sacked less than a month later. One thing the Hammers do have going for them is that Burnley possess one of the worst defences in the division. They've conceded the most shots (17.7 per-game) and most expected goals (2.27 per-game). Away from home these increase to 18.6 shots conceded per-game and 2.42 xG against per-game. As a result they've conceded two or more in every away game so it makes much more sense to back West Ham to score two or more at a bigger price than them to win in a huge match at the bottom of the league.

Sunderland v Arsenal Tip - Back another Merino striker goal

Sunderland v ArsenalSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

It looks like Viktor Gyokeres will miss out through injury, so it looks like once again Mikel Merino will be played as a makeshift striker and as a result he is a bet to score for 4/11 Arsenal. When you consider Gyokeres is 11/10 yet Merino is 7/4 playing in the same position, you can really see the value. Especially when Arsenal are a similar price at 2/1 to score over 2.5 goals. Merino has been deployed as a striker 13 times since the beginning of last season and scored six goals - a terrific return. Sunderland have made a fantastic start to the season sitting in fourth but they've had to ride their luck at times having conceded the fifth most shots in the league.

Expert tipster Mark O'Haire is also backing Merino to score, read his preview here

Chelsea v Wolves Tip - Back top scorer Caicedo

Chelsea v WolvesSaturday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

Wolves sacked head coach Vitor Pereira last weekend following their 3-0 defeat to Fulham after failing to win any of their 10 Premier League games this season. With no new manager yet to appointed, I'm happy to continue to rate Wolves as they are - one of the worst sides in the league. Bottom of the table, they're currently eights point adrift of safety and rank as a bottom three side based on expected points. Defensively they are the worst side in the division having conceded the most goals in 22.

A look at Chelsea's top scorers this season across all competitions versus their odds makes for interesting reading:

So where's the value against the leagues worst defence? Moises Caicedo at 7/1 please.

Now read more Premier League tips here

Recommended bets

Back Tottenham draw no bet @ 1/1

Back Kenny Tete to be shown a card @ 5/2

Back Over 1.5 West Ham goals @ 20/21

Back Mikel Merino anytime goalscorer @ 5/2

Back Moises Caicedo anytime goalscorer @ 7/1

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