Premier League Tips: Mark O'Haire's MD12 best bets involving Arsenal, Chelsea and Leeds | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mark has found three plays for MD12 in the Premier League

Mark O'Haire's latest Notebook pinpoints three punting angles to follow across MD12 of the Premier League.

Burnley v Chelsea: Blues backed at Turf Moor

Burnley v Chelsea      Saturday 22 November, 12:30

Burnley begin the weekend outside the Premier League's bottom-three on goal difference, although the Clarets could soon find themselves right in the relegation mire. Scott Parker's side suffered a demoralising defeat to fellow strugglers West Ham before the international break and have now lost four of their last six, shipping 2+ in five of those matches.

Across the campaign, no side has taken fewer shots, returned a lower xG figure, faced more shots, conceded a higher xG figure and had less of the ball than Burnley. The Clarets are also rock-bottom on xP, allowed the most Big Chances and have lost the xG battle in 9/11, the shots in the box count in 9/11 as well as the corner battle in 10/11.

That sort of data is bound to plunge Burnley into trouble and a match-up with Chelsea is unlikely to yield positive results on Saturday. The Blues have bagged top honours in all four of their fixtures against teams in 15th or below this term, racking up 13 goals in the process and come into this contest off back-to-back league wins without conceding.

It's difficult to see Burnley making in-roads against the Blues and so backing Chelsea to Win, Chelsea Most Corners and Chelsea Most Shots on-Target holds plenty of appeal at 2.26 via the Bet Builder. The Clarets lost the cumulative corner and shots on-target counts 2-19 and 0-12 when hosting Arsenal and Liverpool.

Leeds v Aston Villa: Whites appeal as home underdogs

Leeds v Aston VillaSunday 23 November, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Four defeats in five have seen Leeds dragged into the bottom-six scrap, yet the Whites look capable of playing above their odds in Sunday's showdown against Aston Villa. Daniel Farke's troops have suffered a solitary reverse in five at Elland Road, producing sterling efforts when hosting the likes of Spurs, Bournemouth and Newcastle.

Small samples, of course, but no side has faced fewer Big Chances at home than Leeds (3), whilst only Bournemouth and Arsenal have faced fewer shots in the box at home, or conceded a lower npxG figure in front of their own supporters. It's true too, that Leeds have won the xG battle in all five of their fixtures at Elland Road since promotion.

A lack of top-flight ability in both boxes may hold Leeds back, though the hosts look handily priced at 2.25 off a scratch 0 Asian Handicap start. Villa arrive having failed to win 10 of their last 13 away days when going off at 2/1 (3.00) or shorter, including at Sunderland, Everton and Brentford already in 2025/26.

Villa's results also appear unsustainable. Unai Emery's outfit are 19th on xP, 19th on xG output, and 19th on Big Chances created. What's more, seven of their 13 league goals have come from outside the penalty area, including all three of their strikes away from Villa Park. With that in mind, I'm happy to avoid the Villains as road favourites here.

Arsenal v Tottenham: Gabriel absence encourages Spurs

Arsenal v TottenhamSunday 23 November, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

Arsenal boast a super-strong record against bitter rivals Tottenham in the North London derby, losing just one of their last 32 encounters at home and taking top honours in seven of the last nine meetings across all venues. The Gunners are understandably short-priced favourites to enhance those returns on Sunday, though injuries are biting.

Gabriel's absence in the heart of the Arsenal defence will undoubtedly weaken Mikel Arteta's outfit, whilst Jurien Timber is considered a doubt after picking up a heavy knock on international duty. Suddenly the rock solid, settled rearguard doesn't look quite so uncompromising and Spurs have a capacity to at least get on the scoresheet here.

Sunderland showed that Arsenal can be got at, whilst Atletico Madrid could and should have notched at the Emirates not so long ago. Tottenham have proven they're capable of producing on their travels - striking at least twice in six of their seven away days thus far - and so Both Teams To Score just looks too big to ignore at 2.14.

This wager has paid-out in 13 of the last 15 meetings at the Emirates.

Recommended bets

Chelsea v Wolves - Back Chelsea to win, Chelsea Most Corners, Chelsea Most Shots on-Target @ 2.36

Arsenal v Tottenham - Back BTTS 'Yes' @ 2.15