PSG v Real Madrid Tips: French can outscore Spaniards in thriller | OneFootball

Club World Cup

The Club World Cup has reached the semi-final phase

There should be goals when Paris St Germain take on Real Madrid in the second Club World Cup semi-final but the new Champions League winners can bag more, says Dave Tindall...

PSG v Real MadridWednesday 09 July, 20:00Live on DAZN

PSG poised to hit another peak

Between the start of October and late November last year, PSG were making a real mess of their Champions League campaign. They lost to 2-0 at Arsenal, were held 1-1 at home by PSV, were defeated 2-1 at home by Atletico Madrid and suffered another loss, 0-1, away to Bayern Munich.

And then everything changed. In January, they came from 2-0 down to beat Manchester City 4-2 before roaring into the final by taking a trio of Premier League scalps: Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal. When we wondered if they'd fall at the final hurdle again, Les Parisiens finally realised the dream of being Champions League winners by smashing Inter 5-0 in the final.

Wind on a month or so and now PSG are 11/8 favourites to win the Club World Cup! They suffered a hiccup against Botafogo in the group phase that included a 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid but that's the only goal they've conceded. In the knockout phase there was a 4-0 stroll over Inter Miami followed by a 2-0 success in the last eight against Bayern Munich thanks to late goals from Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele.

But there was a downside to that victory over Bayern as Willian Pacho and Lucas Hernandez received red cards. Both are now banned for this semi-final. That said, going into the two last-four clashes, PSG headed the betting at 11/8.

Alonso making a Real difference

Real Madrid made a sticky start to the tournament after being held 1-1 by Al-Hilal but then normal service was resumed. They beat Mexicans Pachuca 3-1 before easing past Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 to top the group with seven points.

The knockout phase paired them in a last-16 heavyweight clash against Juventus but the 15-time Champions League winners were deserved 1-0 winners (21 shots to Juve's six) and then edged out Borussia Dortmund 3-2 in the semis. That latter game featured a wild extra-time. Dortmund scored twice, either side of Kylian Mbappe's first goal of the tournament, Madrid's Dean Huijsen was sent off and Thibaut Courtois had to pull off a vital save to ensure a 3-2 win.

But here they are, once again on on the brink of giving themselves another shot at a major trophy. This could be quite a start for new boss Xabi Alonso, who has made an instant impact since being brought in following a trophyless 2025 campaign.

PSG fancied to progress

The betting is fairly tight but PSG, priced at 11/10, are the favourites to win in 90 minutes and book their place in the final. Real Madrid are 13/8 while The Draw is 5/2.

This is certainly a dream tie for the organisers of this much-criticised tournament and it might get even better for Gianni Infantino as it has the potential to be an absolute classic.

For PSG, two of their star forwards, Doue and Dembele, both netted in the quarter-final. Doue, of course, scored twice in the Champions League final while Dembele was on target 33 times for club and country in the 2024/25 campaign.

For Madrid, Mbappe has had to be nursed back to fitness after being in hospital with gastroenteritis. But his timing could be ideal after a brilliant scissor kick in added time proved to be the decisive goal in the quarter-final success against Dortmund.

And then, of course, there is Gonzalo Garcia, the youngster who has taken this tournament by storm with four goals and an assist. Ahead of the final he was evens to finish with the Golden Boot and a fair rule of thumb when you get a breakout star in a tournament is to just keep backing them to score. The Toto Schillaci effect.

With so many attacking stars finding their rhythm it's tempting to hit the goals market. Over 2.5 is predictably short at 8/15 but plenty of punters won't be shy in going Over 3.5 at 29/20.

Young guns tipped to shine

Looking at the four goalscorers mentioned above, their anytime prices show Mbappe 5/4, Dembele 13/10, Garcia 2/1 and Doue 23/10.

This is a new tournament without any weight of history like a World Cup. It's also been played in extreme heat (this game kicks off at 3pm local time in New Jersey). Therefore, I'm drawn to the two energy-filled young guns, Garcia and Doue, who are notably bigger prices than the more experienced pair of Mbappe and Dembele.

The double is definitely tempting and I'll play it. Both Garcia (aged 21) and Doue (aged 20) to score is available at 8/1.

PSG re-writing history and can do so again

This is fascinating contest between two of the best young managers in world football. Alonso is already making his presence felt at Real Madrid where he won numerous trophies as a player. History also shows us that Real Madrid have had PSG's number.

But one theme of this new PSG under Luis Enrique,  who played for Madrid between 1991 and 1996, is that the past is a different country. Even the very recent past.

In this year's Champions League, they lost to Arsenal in the group phase but then turned them over 3-1 in the semis, winning both legs. PSG had also lost their previous four matches against Bayern but overcame them here in the last eight. As for Atletico Madrid, forget the CL defeat in November; they locked horns again in this tournament and PSG crushed them 4-0.

And so past head-to-head history against Real Madrid can be ignored. Forget the idea that Real will somehow find a way; instead I prefer to play the angle that PSG can do no wrong in 2025 and can keep their fairytale run going.

So, for those who want a winner, I'm calling it for PSG but will back them to concede on the way.

Recommended bets

1pt - Desire Doue and Gonzalo Garcia both to Score @ 8/1

1pt - PSG to win and Both teams to Score @ 29/10