See what Vasco need to avoid relegation | OneFootball

Vasco heads into the final four rounds of the Brazilian Championship in a state of total alert. After a streak of four consecutive defeats, Fernando Diniz’s team has stalled at 42 points and is once again haunted by the specter of relegation. According to projections released by the Guerreiros da Colina profile, the Cruz-Maltino would have a 41.2% risk of relegation if they fail to earn any more points by the end of the competition.

Despite the worrying scenario, the math still favors Vasco. Given the current combination of results in the table, a draw in the last four rounds could be enough for the club to avoid dropping to Série B — although the traditional “magic number” of 45 points remains the total guarantee of survival.

+ Tchê Tchê admits crisis at Vasco and sends a strong message

The calculations are from Probabilidades no Futebol/UFMG.

Direct battle at the bottom increases the pressure

With Ceará (43 points) and Grêmio (43) just ahead, and Internacional (38), Santos (37), Vitória (36), and Fortaleza (34) below, each round can change decisive positions. At the time of the survey, Ceará and Internacional were facing each other; a win for Ceará would push Vasco down to 14th place, increasing tension behind the scenes.

What Vasco still needs

With four games remaining, the team still depends only on itself to stay in the top flight. The problem is their recent performance: the team has “forgotten how to play football,” as described by the very profile that published the probabilities, reflecting the fans’ frustration after a sharp drop in form.

The 42 points, which just a few weeks ago secured a safe mid-table campaign, have now become insufficient in the face of the resurgence of direct rivals.

Why could a draw be enough?

The explanation comes from the balance (or low points tally) of the competitors. Even if Vasco earns just one more point, three of the teams below would need to surpass that mark — something that, according to mathematicians, is possible but unlikely given the inconsistent performances of Santos, Vitória, Fortaleza, and Internacional.

+ Besides the defeat, Vasco loses a starter for the next match

Photo: Reproduction.

Conclusion

Vasco’s situation is worrying, but it is not yet irreversible. The upcoming games will be decisive: a draw could save them, but the margin for error is minimal, and ideally the team should start earning points as soon as possible to avoid repeating the drama experienced in other seasons.

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.