Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Bologna – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·08 de maio de 2025

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Bologna – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan will take on Bologna twice in five days, and the first act of the double-header comes in Serie A at San Siro on Friday night.

Milan have probably wanted to press fast-forward on the league season for some time now, but for Bologna the three points on offer have an awful lot of value. Everything, though, feels like a dress rehearsal for the Coppa Italia final in Rome next week.

Vídeos OneFootball

Sergio Conceicao did not do a press conference ahead of the game, perhaps in anticipation of the media frenzy that will come in the build-up to the second meeting between the two sides next week.

Game date: Friday, May 9 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: San Siro Referee: Livio Marinelli (VAR: Chiffi)

Team news

Milan have actually had an upturn in form in recent weeks, having won three in a row across all competitions, and four of their last five. The switch to a three-man defence has paid off, with just two goals conceded and 11 scored across that period.

The most recent victory was hard work though, at the Marassi against Genoa. Vitinha’s volley gave them the lead in the second half, with Rafael Leao scoring the equaliser from a Santiago Gimenez assist then forcing the winning own-goal.

With the season-defining game coming just a few days later, there has been a lot of talk about how Sergio Conceicao could rotate. However, he is unlikely to be able to call upon Youssouf Fofana, Warren Bondo and Riccardo Sottil, who are training alone but hope to be back for the final.

Rafael Leao will not be available after he picked up a suspension in Genoa so Joao Felix may well take his place. Christian Pulisic could get a rest meaning Samuel Chukwueze would play behind the striker, which should be Santiago Gimenez.

In defence, Kyle Walker might return from the first minute and that will give one of either Fikayo Tomori or Alex Jimenez a rest. Whilst Malick Thiaw could also come back into the side after a few games without many minutes, in the three-man defence.

As the latest suggests though, we will once again see near enough the same team at San Siro on Friday night.

Conceicao is seemingly preferring to name an unchanged backline – something which is refreshing to say again after a season of consistent switches – so Mike Maignan will be protected by Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic.

Ahead of the trio, Tijji Reijnders will start, whilst Ruben Loftus-Cheek will move deeper into midfield to partner the Dutchman, with Youssouf Fofana’s injury last week set to keep him out. Either side of them, Jimenez and Theo Hernandez will continue.

Photo by AC Milan

In attack, Christian Pulisic keeps his place whilst Jovic drops to the bench; Joao Felix comes in for the suspended Leao, whilst Santiago Gimenez will be given a rare chance to lead the line.

Predicted Milan XI (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Theo; Pulisic, Joao Felix; Gimenez.

The opponents

We recapped the summer moves that Bologna made during our preview of the game at the Stadio Renato dall’Ara earlier this year, one that originally meant to be played at the end of October, but what emerged in the 48 hours leading up to kick-off was nothing short of a farce in the end.

The biggest change was without doubt going from Thiago Motta to Vincenzo Italiano, and after one win in eight to start the campaign (but six draws) there was talk of the former Fiorentina boss already being under pressure. They would also finish 28th in first phase of the Champions League.

However, they stuck with Italiano and he repaid the faith, winning six out of eight in the league from late October to late December. A run of six wins in seven from mid-February to late March then saw them hop into the top four.

A run of one win in five – including recent draws against Udinese and Juventus plus a defeat to Atalanta – has them back down in seventh but just one point from the Champions League places. Thus, the game at San Siro has an awful lot more meaning for the away side.

In terms of their path in the Coppa Italia to set up the final next Wednesday, Bologna beat Monza 4-0 at home, Atalanta 1-0 away from home and then Empoli 5-1 on aggregate over two legs in the semi-finals. Now, they are one game away from a first major honour since 1974.

The two known injury problems for Italiano are forward Dan Ndoye – who netted the winner in the first meeting this season – and right-back Emil Holm. Aside from that, there is a clean bill of health.

It is expected that the Bologna boss will manage resources in view of a crucial season finale, and for that reason Milan could face two very different sides in the space of a few days.

At San Siro, the likes of Ravaglia, Calabria, Casale, Lykogiannis, Aebischer, Fabbian, Dominguez and Dallinga are expected to start, and there could then be eight changes for the final at the Stadio Olimpico.

It seems that Bologna will rotate heavily for the Serie A clash, which could bode well in the Rossoneri’s favour for their aims to get back into a European place.

In fact, only Riccardo Orsolini, Remo Freuler and Sam Beukema are expected to keep their places for both games.

Predicted Bologna XI (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia; Calabria, Beukema, Casale, Lykogiannis; Freuler, Aebischer; Orsolini, Fabbian, Dominguez; Dallinga.

How Bologna should line up vs. Milan in the league (left) and Coppa Italia final (right).

Head to head

Milan have played 187 matches against Bologna across all competitions with 87 wins, 47 draws and 53 defeats. There are only five teams that they have played against more in their 125-year history.

Last season’s game at San Siro was an entertaining contest. Joshua Zirkzee put Bologna ahead after half an hour, then Loftus-Cheek scored a brace to turn things around, with his second coming in the 83rd minute. However, Riccardo Orsolini scored a late penalty to earn a dram.

In the league meeting earlier this season, Milan led through Rafael Leao then collapsed in the second half to lose 2-1. Santiago Castro was on hand to equalise from close range after a free-kick found its way to him, then in the closing stages Ndoye fired in a cross.

Key facts and stats

➤ After a run of 13 wins and four draws against Bologna, Milan lost their most recent league match against them in February; the Rossoblu last won both games against the Rossoneri in a Serie A season back in 1939-40.

➤ Milan have drawn two of their last three home games in Serie A against Bologna (W1), as many draws as across their previous 16 matches at San Siro in the competition against this opposition (W11 L3).

➤ Milan have won their last two Serie A matches and will be looking to win three in succession for just the second time in the top-flight this season, after victories over Venezia, Inter and Lecce under Paulo Fonseca in September.

➤ Milan lost their last home game in Serie A (0-1 v Atalanta) and last suffered two consecutive home defeats between October-November 2023 in the league. The Rossoneri have also lost two of their last four home games in the competition (W1 D1), as many defeats as in their previous 27 such matches combined (W15 D10).

➤ Bologna have won 62 points so far in the league and they can potentially still surpass their record at the end of the season in the three points for a win era (68 in 2023-24). They currently have 16 wins, while in the last Serie A season at this point, they had collected 17.

➤ Bologna have failed to score in each of their last two away games in Serie A (0-2 v Atalanta and 0-0 v Udinese), last going three consecutive away games without scoring in the competition in January 2021.

➤ Bologna are one of three teams, along with Genoa and Udinese, to have scored the fewest goals in the first 15 minutes in Serie A this season (2).

➤ Milan have earned 19 points from losing positions in Serie A in this season, three of those last time out, whilst Bologna have gained 18 points. The Rossoneri and the Emiliani are the two teams with the most points picked up in this ranking in Serie this season.

➤ Theo Hernández has found the net four times in Serie A this season and could score five goals for the fifth time in Serie A, equalling Sergio Cervato and Giacinto Facchetti, as the only two defenders to have achieved this milestone.

➤ After netting in the reverse fixture, Milan could become the second team, after Monza, that Santiago Castro has scored more than one goal against in Serie A. Among players with 4+ goals and 4+ assists in this championship, the Bologna star is the youngest (18 September 2004).

Ones to watch

Giovanni Fabbian could be one to watch in this game, considering he has the ability to be Bologna’s legs in the midfield with Lewis Ferguson set to miss the game – the Italian is not having a good of a season as he did last year, but he remains a danger.

In addition to this, Riccardo Orsolini has to be given massive amounts of respect. This season, the winger has been at a different level to what we have previously seen, and with Milan interested in him ahead of the summer, he could have a big game.

Photo by Giuseppe Cottini/AC Milan via Getty Images

Santiago Gimenez is set to be given a rare chance to start on Friday night, and it is a chance he has to take. The Mexican has been largely disappointing since joining in January, but there is still so much hope for him. Hopefully, he can start to turn the trend.

Then, Ruben Loftus-Cheek has the opportunity to prove himself again. Playing in a deeper role for another 70 minutes would prove that he is potentially able to play a role in this squad in the future. So for him, it is more of a test for the Englishman’s body, than the actual game itself.

Prediction

This is not a game where both teams will probably be going all out, so it would not be a surprise if things are quite low tempo. Bologna, on paper, are fielding a weaker team, so the upper hand should be the Rossoneri’s. However, it probably will not be that simple.

Milan 1-0 Bologna