Sunday Football Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets including a 300/1 bet in Chelsea vs Arsenal | OneFootball

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Crystal Palace vs Manchester United

Sunday, 12:00Live on Sky Sports

Manchester United were really bad against the 10-men of Everton on Monday. The stats suggest otherwise but that simply wasn't the case.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall scored a screamer, Man Utd won the shot count 25-3, missed three 'big chances' and won the expected goals battle 1.71 - 0.21.

Rubin Amorim's played without any tempo though and they have now lost 18 of 39 top flight games since he took charge.

Ordinarily, I'd be looking to get against them this weekend but at the prices available, and with opponents Crystal Palace in Europa Conference League action last Thursday, I am happy to sit this one out.

Aston Villa vs Wolves

Sunday, 14:05Live on Sky Sports

Toti Gomes committed as many fouls against Crystal Palace (4) as he had done across his previous eight Premier League appearances.

This is clearly a player who doesn't mind getting stuck in. He is into his fourth season in the Premier League and has picked up 23 cards. That is a cards per 90 average of 0.29 which roughly translates to a price of 5/2 but on Sunday he can be backed at 16/5 with the Sportsbook which is the best in the industry.

Value aside, it's a bet worth taking for a few more reasons.

For one, this is a West Midlands derby and this fixture has averaged 6.33 cards per game across the last six head-to-heads.

Referee Chris Kavanagh is also towards the high end of the Premier League scale for cards per game averaging four.

Aston Villa's frontline is also good at drawing fouls.

Gomes has started the last three games as the left sided centre back in a back five and Villa have drawn cards from opposition left sided centre backs or left backs in each of their last three league games and four of their last five.

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton

Sunday, 14:05

Sean Dyche has overseen seven games since he took charge at the City Ground and Nottingham Forest have only lost once (W4 D2).

His side have only failed to score in two, they've netted two or more goals on five occasions and scored three goals in each of their last three games.

Considering this, and the opponents, Over 2.5 goals has to be the play at 1.95 on the Exchange.

Brighton's games have averaged 2.9 goals this term with two thirds seeing this bet click.

West Ham vs Liverpool

Sunday, 14:05Live on Sky Sports

All is not well at Anfield.

Liverpool have lost nine of their last 12 matches, their worst run for 71 years, and have lost six of their last seven in the Premier League, which leaves the defending champions 11 points off the title pace. The Reds have also conceded three or more goals in their last three games against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and PSV.

It can't go on like this can it?

It is easy to forget Liverpool won seven games on this spin at the start of the season beating Arsenal, Bournemouth, Atletico Madrid in the Champions League and Merseyside rivals Everton at home. They also won in their trips to Turf Moor and St James' Park in late, dramatic fashion.

Sure, they were conceding too many goals but their shortcomings weren't exactly glaring and five games into the season, they were five points clear.

Then came the capitulation.

Across the last seven league fixtures, only Wolves (2) have taken fewer points then the Reds (3), Arne Slot is now the second favourite in the sack race and Jurgen Klopp is the favourite to replace him.

At 4.50 with the Exchange, I cannot resist backing West Ham to win on Sunday.

Nuno Espírito Santo's are unbeaten in three (W2 D1) and have scored eight goals across that stint.

Greedy as ever, I think there is an opportunity to really pile into Liverpool here.

Across their last seven in the Premier League, the Reds have had less shots on target than their opponents in five games, committed more fouls than their opponents on four occasions and picked up the most cards in four games.

Across that sample, they lost the shot on target count, won the foul count and won the card count against Manchester City and Nottingham Forest.

At 61/1, you can combine West Ham to have the most shots on target, Liverpool to receive the most cards and Liverpool to commit the most fouls in each half.

The bet landed against Forest and went within a whisker of landing against City as the second half foul count was level. In seven league games under Nuno, the Hammers have only lost the card count once.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Sunday, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

This is a huge game at the top of the Premier League.

A win for Arsenal would move them nine points clear of Chelsea who start the weekend in second spot.

Even at this early stage of the season, with the Gunners 4/9 to win the title heading into this game, three points on Sunday would surely be curtains as far as a title race is concerned.

I was worried for how Arsenal would fair after they lost defensive stalwart Gabriel Magalhaes during the international break. He is so crucial to their set piece threat and defensive balance.

And whilst Mikel Arteta's side have failed to keep a clean sheet in his absence, they have only shipped an expected goals-against of 0.72 in the two games against Tottenham and Bayern Munich and netted seven times. So, the concerns were definitely misguided.

Jurrien Timber also netted from a corner in midweek so they are still as dangerous as ever from dead balls.

So too are Sunday's hosts Chelsea who rank second for goals scored from set pieces (8). It could be an avenue both sides look to exploit at Stamford Bridge.

In the big games, especially away from home, Arteta often opts for a cautious approach.

His sides went within seconds of a stalemate at Anfield earlier this season and last season against the top five, three of the four away fixtures ended all square.

It is also worth noting Enzo Maresca isn't as wedded to a total football approach as he was last season.

The first signs of a shift in ethos came in the Club World Cup final against PSG. The Blues also went direct in their last top flight game against Burnley and are generally more tactically versatile in the big European games.

It perhaps points towards a tight-cagey affair here but - to be honest - I was spinning round in circles trying to assess this game until I clocked the referee.

Anthony Taylor, boy I am glad to see you incharge at the Bridge.

Taylor flits between the sublime to the ridiculous but tends to keep his cards in his pocket on the big occasions.

This season, Taylor's ref'd two no card games, Arsenal's trip to Fulham and the Manchester Derby.

He has given under 4.5 cards in 70% of his Premier League appearances this season and 19% of the games he ref'd last season ended cardless and 74% saw four cards or fewer.

So, I'll be taking all the lines from four to no cards here.

Back Under 1.5 cards and team most cards 'tie'

SBK 65/1

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