Sunday Premier League Tips: Jamie Vardy's having a party and you're all invited | OneFootball

Brentford v Fulham (15:00)

Despite Brighton, Bournemouth and this weekends opponents Fulham all having very good seasons, it's Brentford that have emerged from the pack late on to currently sit in eighth and potentially the last spot for European football next season.

After winning at Ipswich last weekend, Brentford manager Thomas Frank says his team are "dreaming" of Europe following a run of four wins in a row. "We have got the momentum which is important. We are close to finishing eighth which would be the best position ever in the league. We are laser focused on what we can do. We have given very little away but still created a lot. We just need to push and enjoy it, the next two games."

Over the course of the last six games only Aston Villa (15) have taken more points than Brentford's 14. With Brentford's last game away at Wolves, motivation will be high to end the season with six points from both matches.

Fulham on the otherhand seem to be stuck in reverse, with their 3-1 loss at home to Everton their eighth defeat in their last 10 games across all competitions. However, after losing defensive midfielder Joao Palhinha in the summer, I think most Fulham fans would be happy with a mid-table finish. And there's motivation for them still here with the Brentford-Fulham rivalry strong over recent years.

I don't want to back Brentford at odds-on quotes, especially given if Crystal Palace beat Man City in the FA Cup Final on Saturday then eighth will no longer qualify for European football. Instead with both sides motivated, it's to the favoured goals market, especially with it being late in the season and the goals tend to increase.

No ground in the Premier League has seen more goals than Brentford's this season with 70 (For 38, Against 32) at an average of a whopping 4.12 per-game. For Fulham, 13 of their last 19 matches have seen Over 2.5 goals (68%) and their clean sheet record stands at a horrendous four in their last 30 games. With the line set at 2.75, we know that at least three goals will see us profit.

Leicester v Ipswich (15:00)

Three weeks ago Jamie Vardy announced that after 13 years he will be leaving Leicester City at the end of the season and thus this match is his last ever home game for the team in-front of 30,000 fans who's club describe him as "our greatest ever player". He is the club's record Premier League scorer with 144 goals, and in all competitions has scored 199 goals in 499 appearances. How fitting would it be for him to score his 200th goal for the club on his 500th and final home appearance?

There's not many better opponents either in Ipswich who possess the third worst defence in the league with 77 goals conceded and second worst based on expected goals conceded with 81.98. Vardy has only ever started one home game against Ipswich in his career back in 2014 in the Championship and of course he scored after just 19 minutes. It's likely his team-mates will be going all out to set him up and of course he will be on penalties too. We can back him to score at 17/10. He scored in both games against fellow relegated side Southampton.

We should also mark the occasion with backing him to receive a yellow card as well. Known for his fun-loving personality, it's entirely possible if he scores he could have an exuberant message to Leicester fans on a shirt underneath or even emotions get the better of him and he celebrates in the crowd leading to collecting a yellow.

Well known for his celebrations, after doing a backflip after one goal he remarked post-game "I've had it in the locker for a while but saved it for a special occasion." Three weeks is a long time to plan exactly how he wants his send off to go. Of course he could also get booked another way, having picked up five cards this season and already described the club's season as "miserable" and a "total embarrassment" which could come to fruition again if Ipswich upset his goodbye and he loses his discipline. The Vardy goal and card bet has already won twice this season, both for separate incidents.

Arsenal v Newcastle (16:30)

Arsenal's season is fizzling out very slowly. Knocked out of the Champions League semi-finals after losing both legs to PSG, they then find themselves 15 points behind Champions Liverpool and closer to Brighton in ninth. It means they've failed to win any of their last five games, including the last four at home and it's just three Premier League wins in their last 10. They've drawn 14 games this season - only Everton have drawn more (15).

Opponents Newcastle have been in excellent form for a while now, winning 21 of their last 28 games across all competitions, including winning runs of six and nine games during this period. When they are hot, they are very hot. They've already beaten Arsenal three times this season in the league and League semi-finals, all without conceding, and twice by more than goal, so this match will hold no fear for them whatsoever.

The Toon Army are only three points clear of Chelsea and Aston Villa with just two games left, and with Everton at home in their final game being no easy task, they will be going all out here to avoid defeat. This looks the perfect time to play Arsenal so backing Newcastle to avoid defeat is the way to go.

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