UEFA Champions League / Newcastle - Barcelona: who is the favorite? | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League / Newcastle - Barcelona: match analysis

UEFA Champions League / Newcastle - Barcelona: who is the favorite?

The Champions League draw has set up an intriguing showdown between Newcastle United and FC Barcelona in the Round of 16. The first leg will take place at St. James’ Park on March 10, 2026, before a highly anticipated return leg at Spotify Camp Nou on March 17. This clash pits English enthusiasm against the European pedigree of the Catalan giants.

On the domestic front, the gap between the sides is evident. Newcastle currently sits 11th in the Premier League with 36 points (10 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses), despite an impressive European run, especially after their emphatic victory over Qarabağ in the playoffs. FC Barcelona, meanwhile, are dominating La Liga with 61 points and a robust record of 20 wins in 25 matches.

Projections logically make Barça the favorite to advance, with about a 68% chance of qualification compared to Newcastle’s 32%. The Catalans also have the advantage of playing the second leg at home and are riding a wave of momentum thanks to the form of young stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri.