Which Teams Are Being Underestimated by the World Cup 2026 Bookmakers? | OneFootball

Evidently, the world cup is one of the biggest betting markets for bookmakers. Months are spent studying the teams and pricing up the favourites. Of course, there are the perennial hot picks, with most people backing Brazil, France, Spain, England or Argentina to go all the way.

However, every tournament brings its fair share of surprises. Who can forget Germany’s astonishing group stage defeats to Mexico and South Korea in 2018? Croatia were not expected to reach the final in 2018, nor were Morocco favourites to reach the semi-finals in 2022.

The 2026 tournament kicks off on June 11th and boasts the largest field of all time, with 48 teams competing across the USA, Mexico and Canada. But which teams are the bookmakers overlooking that could be worth backing?

Why the Bookmakers Get It Wrong

Odds are built on reputation as much as on results, and on the sway of public money. With the top five nations often drawing the most bettors, they continue to be priced up as the shortest favourites. However, when the game starts, fame, reputation or fan base counts for little. The result is that smaller nations are often overlooked and given odds that do not necessarily reflect their quality, leading to shock results people talk about for tournaments to come.

With 48 teams and 12 groups in the 2026 tournament, football fans will get more games and more chances for smaller teams to claim the scalps of larger, more fancied nations. Another change that increases the likelihood of shock results is that eight of the best third-placed teams now make it through to the second round, meaning teams do not need to be perfect to guarantee progress.

Norway: The In-Form Outsider

At around 25/1, Norway are outsiders for the tournament, but their form suggests a team hungry for success. Having not appeared in a World Cup for 28 years, it’s understandable why they are not considered favourites. However, with arguably the most ruthless finisher on the planet in Erling Haaland, Norway are a team nobody should underestimate.

Norway didn’t lose a single game in qualifying. They have been drawn in a group with France and Senegal. While these nations will provide stiff opposition, Norway have the self-belief to win those games, and any opponent who overlooks them does so at their peril.

Switzerland: Built on a Rock-Solid Defence

Switzerland are a calm, controlled side who don’t play fancy football but get the job done, having reached the knockout stages at each of the last three World Cups. At approximately 80/1, they are once again seen as rank outsiders for the competition. When it comes to a tournament like the World Cup, a strong defensive record counts for a lot. While Switzerland are unlikely to take home the title, they will be consistent and hard to beat.

Senegal: Far More Than Plucky Underdogs

Senegal have been present at the past three consecutive World Cups, and while they have only one quarter-final to their name, the expanded format lends itself to teams like Senegal. They are a physically powerful team with players accustomed to the Premier League and other top European leagues.

At 100/1, Pape Thiaw’s side stand a great chance of reaching the latter stages of the tournament, even if they share a group with France and Norway. Senegal will be keen to ensure they qualify as one of the best third-placed teams. Tenacious and with nothing to lose, they beat the reigning champions in the opening game of 2002 and will be ready to surprise any team that mistakes them for a soft touch.

How to Read the Market

For anybody keen to enjoy a few World Cup bets, it is important to look past the names and study the market. Form can shift in final warm-up matches, and a single injury can severely impact a team’s morale and change their odds overnight.

Comparing resources like the latest World Cup odds from Forza Football keeps you up to speed with the current prices for every group and every game, and will help you spot anything that looks too generous to ignore.

The trick is not to look for the obvious picks, but rather the underpriced teams that have the talent to back it up on the pitch. That includes some of the sleeper teams below that are too good to overlook.

Ivory Coast: Africa’s Forgotten Threat

While Senegal and Morocco often take all the limelight, Ivory Coast are a dark horse that football fans cannot overlook. The Elephants are a team composed of leading stars from across Europe. Amad Diallo is a genuine threat at Manchester United, and Ousmane Diomande is an imposing centre-back. Nicolas Pépé, meanwhile, brings both experience and hunger to the front line.

Winners of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations on home soil, they are a squad used to handling pressure and coming through it. At 300/1 they look a generous price.

Ecuador: The Quietest Danger in the Draw

Ecuador, however, are one of the quietest in the tournament. Overshadowed by larger neighbours like Brazil and Argentina, they have already proven themselves a team to fear in 2026. Sharing a group with Germany, Ivory Coast and Curaçao, they start the competition at 100/1 and will fancy their chances of reaching the second round or beyond.

Currently on an unbeaten run stretching back to September 2024, they have a rugged defence, with Moises Caicedo as a defensive anchor controlling the game just ahead of them, while Kendry Paez and Enner Valencia round off an exciting attack. They are a team perfectly capable of pulling off a giant-killing act or two.

A Few More to Keep on Your Radar

Morocco remains a side capable of mounting a real challenge. Uruguay is another South American nation eager to make an impression. Winners of the inaugural World Cup in 1930, they have become a formidable side under Marcelo Bielsa. While unlikely to challenge for the crown, they are more than capable of making life difficult for any opponent.