Why Boca want Cruzeiro to beat Católica in Libertadores | OneFootball

A Brazilian win in Chile would change the group picture for the Xeneize. The opposite result would leave them with no margin for error.

At Boca, coming back empty-handed from Guayaquil was not part of the plan. The Xeneize only needed to take something from the match to head into the final stretch of the group calmly, but the defeat to Barcelona complicated the situation, leaving Claudio Ubeda’s side with no room for error. Tonight’s match between Universidad Católica and Cruzeiro will be decisive in understanding what Boca needs.

From 11 p.m. (Argentina time), the Chileans and Brazilians will face off on matchday four, and the result will be crucial for the team from La Ribera. A win for the Belo Horizonte side would bring relief to Buenos Aires, but everything would get more complicated if the home team takes all three points.

So far, Boca, Cruzeiro, and Universidad Católica are level on points, but at least one of the two teams (or both, if they draw) will move above the Xeneize in the standings. Even so, a win for Artur Jorge’s side would have a different taste for the Argentine club.

Why a Cruzeiro win helps Boca

A Cruzeiro win tonight would make the picture much clearer for Boca, who would then only need to beat Universidad Católica on the final matchday to reach the round of 16, without depending on what happens in matchday five against the Brazilians at La Bombonera. This is due to the head-to-head tiebreaker system implemented in this edition of the Copa.

If the Brazilians win, Católica will stay on 6 points and could reach the final matchday with at most a 3-point lead over the Xeneize (imagining a negative scenario in which they beat Barcelona in Chile and Boca loses to Cruzeiro). That way, a blue-and-gold win on matchday six would be enough to catch them on points, and Boca would move above them in the standings for having won both head-to-head meetings.

What happens if Universidad Católica win

On the other hand, a Universidad Católica victory tonight would complicate things for Boca, who would be practically forced to win both of their remaining home matches to qualify. In that scenario, Cruzeiro would remain on 6 points, but avoiding defeat at La Bombonera would leave them one step away from qualification thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

In a scenario where Boca draw with Cruzeiro and then beat Universidad Católica, also taking into account hypothetical wins for both the Brazilians and Chileans against Barcelona, the situation would look like this.

In that case, a tie on points between the Xeneize and the Brazilian side would hurt Ubeda’s team, who would be eliminated after having lost in Belo Horizonte. That is why, if Universidad Católica win today, Boca must beat Cruzeiro at La Bombonera with no margin for error.

What happens if Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro ends in a draw

A draw today would not be bad news for the Xeneize, who would still end matchday four in Copa Sudamericana qualification position. In this scenario, Boca would be able to get their qualification campaign back on track as long as they do not lose to Cruzeiro. A draw on matchday five would be enough for them to go through by beating the Chileans in the final one.

It is worth noting that a draw is the best possible scenario for Boca if they want to finish top of their group, since the scenarios mentioned earlier would only allow them to go through as runners-up. Beyond all the calculations, the Xeneize still depend on themselves, but they will have to win both of their home matches if they want to avoid any drama.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇪🇸 here.