Will Lionel Messi play for Argentina at World Cup 2026? | OneFootball

Thursday night, Lionel Messi's Inter Miami are scheduled to play in Jamaica's Cavalier FC in the National Stadium in Kingston, with a sold-out crowd of 35,000 hoping to see the world's greatest living player in action.

We use the word hoping, not expecting, because it's no longer possible to be sure Messi will take the field in a given match for club or country.

The eight-time Ballon d'Or winner has missed Miami's last three matches with what manager Javier Mascherano has termed "muscle fatigue" or "muscle overload," depending on your Spanish-to-English transation.

And while he is expected to travel for Leg 2 of Miami's Concacaf Champions Cup round of 16 series, with potentially dodgy field conditions and the Herons already holding a 2-0 lead on aggregate, it wouldn't be surprising if Mascherano treated his most important player with kid gloves.

That is all prologue for the much bigger question of whether Messi will suit up for Argentina at the World Cup one more time in 2026 in the United States, Canada and Mexico. And while the issue has typically been framed around his own desire, the capabilities of his currently 37-year-old body and the challenge of trying to manage the workload of a player everyone wants on the field are increasingly emergent factors.

Messi finally looks mortal

Last fall, Messi said he is putting his personal happiness first at this stage in his career, rather than setting specific benchmarks like continuing his career through World Cup '26. And if there's anything that could erode the happiness in doing what he loves, it is increasing injury and fitness issues.

The current muscular injuries Messi is combatting -- including symptoms that sound like muscle cramping or spasming -- have been recurring at least since he made the trans-Atlantic move to Miami in the summer of 2023, and likely before.

In 2024, he appeared in only 19 league matches (15 starts) and missed the entirety of the 2024 Leagues Cup recovering from an injury he suffered in the 2024 Copa America final.

But he was also managing some sort of similar muscle fatigue entering the Copa America, and then proceeded to play every minute of the tournament for Argentina until he was forced off in the 65th minute of the final. One of the lasting images of the tournament was a tearful, anguished Messi on the bench shortly after his removal.

Similarly, there has been no inkling of a will to manage his minutes in World Cup qualifying play. Messi missed Argentina's matches during the September window, but then played the full 90 in all four World Cup qualifiers across October and November. And he contributed goal involvements on six of the Albiceleste's nine tallies in those windows -- albeit five of those coming in a 6-0 thumping of Bolivia.

As long has he continues to shoulder that kind of burden, there is going to continue to be the "muscle overload" issues he is currently contending with. And that raises the risk of a much more sudden, injury-induced end to his international career.

Of contracts and calendars

There's also some lingering uncertainty over his club future, not to mention the competitive schedule of MLS itself.

Messi's current contract runs only through the end of 2026, though it's thought both he and Miami/MLS want to extend a deal that has been profitable for both. And there also appear to be serious ongoing discussions about MLS potentially flipping to a fall-to-spring schedule following the 2026 World Cup.

If a calendar flip is approved, MLS would probably play some sort of shortened competition between February and May of 2026 before the World Cup begins. And if Messi desperately wanted to play in one more tournament for Argentina, but also felt increasingly wary of his body's ability to hold up, he might feel more confident extending his MLS career only by a half-season in order to remain in playing shape for World Cup '26, in a manner similar to what Gareth Bale engineered with LAFC ahead of Qatar '22.

Commercial concerns

And as Messi weighs whether to keep going for 2026, it's impossible to ignore the enormous commercial potential of a North American World Cup.

Thirty-one years later, USA '94 remains the most-attended World Cup of all-time in both average and total attendance, even though it was the last tournament limited to 24 teams. The 2026 tournament will be doubel the size in terms of teams and matches from 1994 and could blow the previous record attendance mark out of the water.

While Messi has never hd the most overstated personality, he has shown a willingness to capitalize on his commercial appeal with his lengthy endorsement list, as well as his innovative agreement with MLS and Apple TV. The latter is reported to include a share of the subscription revenue from MLS Season Pass, Apple TV's MLS streaming package.

The potential of the 2026 World Cup to provide an even greater commercial platform in front of the world's richest economy can not be overstated, and will certainly weigh on Messi's mind.