Jones Knows Notebook: Why 7/1 Everton can beat Liverpool in final Goodison derby | OneFootball

English Premier League

Everton are 7/1 to beat Liverpool

After pinpointing Manchester United's goal-shy first-half tendencies that led to a 15/8 winner on FA Cup weekend, Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - makes a case for Everton to beat Liverpool on Wednesday night...

When the footballing gods speak, it's wise to listen

Trust the numbers. Or go with your gut.

It's a balance that I'm constantly juggling when tasked with making betting-based decisions.

Usually, the numbers win.

But I do possess good instincts when it comes to sniffing out a potential angle. Watching football for 20 years has been good for something then.

And these instincts are telling me that Everton are a wild price at 7/1 to beat Liverpool in the Merseyside derby on Wednesday night.

I think the footballing gods might be working their magic here and when the masters of destiny make their move not even a team like Liverpool can stop them. There are signs emerging that it just might be meant to be that Everton get a positive result in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park.

Kick-off time and Moyes factor boost Everton

The cold blast that triggered this rearranged fixture has worked in the favour for Everton for two main reasons.

Firstly, David Moyes is now back as manager - there isn't a more fitting candidate to lead Everton to a final Merseyside derby night at Goodison Park than Moyes and the club are far more united now under his watch, playing a more dangerous style of football that causes opposition to answer more questions in defence than under the previous regime.

Moyes has got a much better record at beating Liverpool in home matches than Sean Dyche, too. In the last 18 home fixtures as a manager against the Reds he's won six, drawn three and lost nine, so is working at a 50 per cent strike rate for avoiding defeat.

Also, the change of kick-off time is huge help for Everton too. The fact the original game was a 12.30pm kick off was never going to create the atmosphere that a special fixture like this deserves.

The switch to a night fixture under the lights at the great old ground certainly adds more advantage to Everton. They can be a different animal when the floodlights are on.

In the 12 Merseyside derbies to have been played at 5.30pm or later in the Premier League at Goodison, Everton have only lost four times, winning three and drawing five, meaning they have avoided defeat in 66 per cent of those matches. That is a hefty figure when you consider they'd have been underdogs in every single of those fixtures.

Slot is human after all - how will he react to his glaring mistake?

Even if you use a bit of logic and assess the form of both teams, Everton are capable of troubling Liverpool who have only won two of their last six away games and Arne Slot has come under some scrutiny for his baffling team selection at Plymouth where he completely disrespected the FA Cup and the competition subsequently taught him a lesson.

Not to have the likes of Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk on the bench for an emergency was just careless and stank of arrogance. Of course, if he lands a couple of trophies come May no-one is going to care too much about the defeat at Home Park but I think he'll have regrets about how he approached that Plymouth game. This adds even more importance to the game for him to put his first major mistake as Liverpool manager firmly behind him.

His team will be at full-throttle but that might not be enough if the footballing gods have spoken.

I think the Grand Old Lady of Goodison Park might just deliver one final last hurrah in the biggest game of the lot.

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Back Everton to beat Liverpool @ 7/1