Leeds United v Manchester City: Whites can slow title charge | OneFootball

Leeds United v Manchester CitySaturday 28 February, 17:30

City defeat the turning point for Farke

Given the demise of Ruben Amorim at Manchester United, there has been plenty of talk this season about whether coaches should be adaptable or whether they should change their system if necessary. Daniel Farke knows how effective it can be if you change formation, as altering the shape of his team has saved his job and might just save the Whites from relegation.

At 3-0 down at the Etihad against Manchester City, Farke decided to switch to a back three. Not only did Leeds stop the bleeding, but they came back to only lose 3-2. In 14 Premier League games since that tactical revelation, Leeds have lost just twice. Farke admits running City close in the reverse fixture boosted his players' self-belief.

Leeds aren't home and hosed, as going into this weekend they are only six points above the dropzone. However, with Wolves and Burnley still to come to Elland Road and with visits to Tottenham and West Ham on the horizon, Leeds' fate is very much in their hands.

Forward Noah Okafor is out with a hamstring injury, but left-back Gabriel Gudmundsson is fit to return. Farke has no other injury concerns.

Newcastle win shows City are serious

Against a strong team that has improved its away form significantly of late, Manchester City delivered a mature performance in a 2-1 win over Newcastle last weekend, a victory that kept up the pressure on their title rivals Arsenal.

England tyro Nico O'Reilly was outstanding in a versatile attacking role, scoring both goals. Erling Haaland held the ball up brilliantly under pressure, and teed up one of O'Reilly's goals with an inch-perfect cross.

City know that with a home game against Arsenal to come and a game in hand, they will win the title if they win all of their games. However, this isn't quite the machine-like City of old, and this feels like an incredibly competitive division. Pep Guardiola's side is on a three-match winning streak in the league, but that's only the third time they've managed to get to three straight top-flight wins this season.

The January signings of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi - proven Premier League performers - have given City a clear boost. Ex-Bournemouth winger Semenyo has delivered four goal involvements in six Premier League games and has scored in both the League Cup and the FA Cup. Former Crystal Palace skipper Guehi has played in six games for his new club, winning five and drawing one.

Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic are still out injured, while Jeremy Doku is battling to return from a calf problem. Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki are pushing for a start, as Guardiola looks to manage his resources in what he calls his favourite part of the season.

Leeds can push City hard

Although people will look at Arsenal's comfortable 4-0 win at Elland Road and think this could go a similar way, I believe Leeds can cause an inconsistent City plenty of problems. Daniel Farke's side have only lost three home games in the league all season, they have only failed to score twice at Elland Road, and their overall record since the start of December is excellent.

Pep Guardiola's City have won just two of their last six away games in all competitions, and I just can't get on board with backing them to win at 1.64 on the Betfair Exchange.

Asian Handicap at 1.9. We only lose money if Leeds lose by two goals or more, and we get a full payout at nearly evens if Leeds win or draw.

DLC won't get TLC from City defence

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is always a handful for defenders, and it's worth noting that in the reverse fixture he was fouled three times, despite playing just 45 minutes. The former Everton centre-forward has been fouled twice or more on eight separate occasions this term, and given the treatment City dished out to him last time, I'll back him to be fouled twice or more here at an attractive 7/5 on the Sportsbook.