Lewis Jones' Notebook: Premier League's Under 2.5 goals trend won't last | OneFootball

English Premier League

Will under 2.5 goals remain a profitable betting strategy? Lewis Jones says no

In his latest Notebook, Lewis Jones highlights the early season trend for under 2.5 goals in the Premier League and ponders whether unders are here to stay...

Is Premier League's Under 2.5 goals trend sustainable?

The Premier League's early weeks have thrown up a pattern: an upsurge in under 2.5 goals. Those of us who like backing low-scoring affairs are a rare breed but the start of the season has provided us with a decent run, albiet some games have been a tough watch. I'm looking at you Bournemouth v Newcastle.

Of the 50 Premier League games played this season, 25 have fallen under the 2.5 goals line and the overall goals per game average sits at 2.48.

We have become very used to seeing the goal lines set at 3.5 for Premier League matches such has been the upsurge in the averages in recent seasons. Over the last two seasons before this one started, the average goals per game in the Premier League was 3.09. The influx of attack-minded coaches, bringing more high-risk and high-reward football to the table, lead to goal heavy games.

So, is this run of unders a sustainable trend? Is there a shift? Or is it just the type of small sample size that comes with the first few months of a new season?

Reasons for the Unders trend

First off, let's talk about the sample size. We're only five games into the season and that's far from enough to declare any trend as a reliable source of evidence to profit from.

If you look back at previous campaigns, the start of the season can throw up some freaky statistical goal blips which stems from the first international break.

The matchday immediately after that first break in the calendar, where players jet all around the world, is synonymous with low goal counts. Matchday Four this season averaged just 1.9 goals per game which means across the last three seasons this matchday has now averaged just 2.15 goals per game.

Teams are still trying to find their rhythm, new signings are settling in, managers are experimenting with their line-ups and the international break is making life even harder when assessing all those variables.

That's a recipe for unpredictability - and unpredictability is leading to fewer goals. Also, let's not forget about the tactical adjustments that are bound to happen as managers get to spend more time with their players on the training pitch when the season settles down.

Listening to Crystal Palace boss Oliver Glasner after his team won at West Ham really hit home that aspect. Glasner revealed this week is going to provide him with an opportunity to work with his players on the grass for the first time since pre-season, owing to the hectic schedule.

As the season progresses, teams will fine-tune their attacking play - it's just the way of the Premier League beast. When they do, expect the goals to return.

Over 2.5 Goals poised for a profitable comeback

Goals will come, because that's the nature of the modern-day Premier League. There's too much attacking talent for these under 2.5 goal patterns to persist for long.

So, while it's tempting to follow the current under 2.5 trend, it's crucial to remember the bigger picture.

This early season dip in goals is a statistical outlier. Don't get caught in the trap of thinking it's a trend that's going to last. Stick with the long-term trends - keep the over 2.5 line on your side when the fixture fits the bill.

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