Millwall v Watford: Oppose misfiring Lions in shots bet and cash in on cards | OneFootball

Millwall v WatfordMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Hard game to call after mid-table starts

It's been no more than an average start to the season for London rivals Millwall and Watford who sat 13th and 17th respectively going into the weekend fixtures, though a win for either team on Monday night will result in a comfortable position in the table after six games of the new Championship campaign.

Millwall were quietly fancied in the Promotion market - they're now out to 10/1 - before the season commenced but surprisingly Alex Neil's men have made a dreadful start at the Den, losing 0-3 to table-toppers Middlesbrough and 0-2 to a Wrexham team that went into the weekend 21st in the table.

The Lions however are unbeaten away from home meaning they have a W2-D1-L2 record from their five league games played and they did record a narrow win on home soil over Coventry in the EFL Cup towards the end of August.

Away from home Watford are yet to win, though their defeat to Charlton was only by a single goal and they recorded a respectable 1-1 draw at Swansea in their other game on the road. Paulo Pezzolano's men have a win, draw and defeat on home soil for an overall league record this term of W1-D2-L2.

In the Match Odds market Millwall can be backed at 11/10 with the Hornets priced at 11/4 (the draw is 11/5), though it's a market in which I'm happy to sit on the fence given the Lions' poor start to the season in front of their home fans. It's hard to have confidence in them winning at their current price, but by the same token I couldn't oppose them with any confidence.

No surprise to see 'Unders' a short price

Perhaps the way to play this game is to go low on goals.

The obvious angle is that Millwall are yet to score a league goal at the Den this season, while Watford's two away games have averaged just 1.5 goals per game. Admittedly it's very early in the season and trends are difficult to trust, but to my eyes these two teams look evenly matched and we could be set for a cagey London derby.

Recent head-to-head results also offer encouragement. Although this exact same fixture finished 2-3 last season, seven of the previous eight meetings between Millwall and Watford ended with at least one of the teams failing to score while six of those eight games ended with Under 2.5 Goals paying out.

Sadly, the Betfair Sportsbook appear to be thinking down the same lines as myself as they've priced up Under 2.5 Goals at just 3/5 so it's not a bet I will be putting up as a tip, but if you do want to back it then click this link to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

Alternatively, the No option in the Both Teams to Score market can be backed at 4/5 here.

Hornets can out-shoot Lions and cards fancied

One bet that's definitely worth considering is a Shots on Target match bet on Watford at 21/10.

The Lions have won just one such match bet out of their five Championship games this season, and that was against a rock bottom Sheffield United side who have lost all six league games this term.

On home soil Millwall recorded just one shot on target against Middlesbrough and two on target against Wrexham, losing the match bet both times, and even when they beat Coventry 2-1 at the Den in the EFL Cup they were easily beaten 2-5 when it came to shots on target.

However, my main bet for this game will be to back Over 4.5 Cards at 6/4.

My thinking behind this is that both teams will be keen to get the win that will move them into the top half of the table, rendering their start to the new campaign decent, and that a London derby under the lights could result in a fiery affair, especially if the passionate home fans get their voices into full gear.

Although the last time these two side met only one yellow card was shown, the previous four meetings have been high on cards with 20 yellows and one red brandished for an average of 5.25 cards per game.

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