Opta Predicts Chelsea v Liverpool: Back Reds to return to winning ways in 8/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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It has been a tough few days for Liverpool. A week ago, Arne Slot's Reds retained the only 100% record in the Premier League this season and were also off to a winning start in the UEFA Champions League.

But they then suffered a late 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace last Saturday, before Victor Osimhen's penalty saw them beaten 1-0 by Galatasaray on Tuesday.

Liverpool had not been entirely convincing in the season's opening weeks, relying on numerous late goals to get them out of trouble, and many on Merseyside are now wondering whether their luck has run out.

Chelsea would have been hoping to challenge the champions this season, but back-to-back defeats to Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion - both with 10 men - have left Enzo Maresca's side seven points off the pace already.

The Blues did respond with a 1-0 midweek win over Benfica and their former boss Jose Mourinho in the Champions League, but with injuries and suspensions piling up, how will they fare in a huge test at Stamford Bridge?

Ahead of Saturday's late kick-off, we dive into the Opta data and pick out some of our favourite selections to make up a Bet Builder.

Champions Liverpool look to bounce back

After suffering two away defeats in the space of four days, Liverpool have now lost five of their last eight matches on the road in all competitions - as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 34.

But the Reds had opportunities in Istanbul. Hugo Ekitike wasted a golden opening at 0-0 before Ibrahima Konaté, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak all squandered chances to equalise.

Liverpool won the expected goals (xG) battle 1.81 to 1.34, with most of Galatasaray's total coming from Osimhen's spot-kick. A series of poor giveaways in their own half did little to inspire more confidence in their defence, but Slot's side were unfortunate to lose.

Now, Liverpool go into Saturday's game as favourites both with the Betfair Sportsbook and the Opta supercomputer, the latter assigning them a 42.3% chance of victory, compared to Chelsea's 32.3%.

Liverpool are winless on their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (three draws, one defeat), and after losing 3-1 there in May, they could lose away to Chelsea in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since three straight defeats from 2004/05 to 2006/07.

However, that defeat at Chelsea five months ago came when the Premier League title was already wrapped up while Slot rotated his squad, and given the Blues' own struggles, there are reasons to believe Liverpool warrant their favourites tag.

Chelsea have lost consecutive Premier League games for the third time under Maresca and could suffer three successive defeats for the first time since May 2023, when Frank Lampard was their interim head coach.

Robert Sánchez started Tuesday's win over Benfica and is available here, having served a one-match domestic ban following his red card against Man Utd. But Trevoh Chalobah is suspended after also being sent off against Brighton, and Chelsea's selection issues do not stop there.

Talisman Cole Palmer is sidelined until after the international break, while Liam Delap is a long-term absentee. With Tosin Adarabioyo and Levi Colwill also out alongside Chalobah, Maresca will be without his three most trusted centre-backs.

Liverpool have not lost back-to-back league games under Slot and are 4/11 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market, but Chelsea's selection issues and poor recent form might just give punters enough confidence to back the visitors outright.

Chelsea's ill-discipline could continue

Maresca will be desperately disappointed with Chelsea's failure to keep their heads in recent weeks. His team were level with Man Utd and ahead against Brighton when they received red cards in both matches, leading to a feeling that points were thrown away.

Having received a red card in back-to-back Premier League matches for the first time since December 2023, Chelsea also saw João Pedro dismissed for two bookable offences against Benfica.

Since the start of last season, Chelsea have received more cards (114 yellows, four reds) in the Premier League than any other team.

Among managers to take charge of 20 or more games in the competition with one club, only Mauricio Pochettino's Chelsea (2.9) have had a higher cards-per-game ratio than Maresca's Chelsea team (2.7).

With that in mind, punters might be minded to attack the fouls and cards markets.

Chelsea are 2/7 to receive over 1.5 cards, and they only need to marginally outdo their per-game average under Maresca to make over 2.5 home cards a winning bet at 1/1.

Chelsea's 17 total cards in the Premier League this season are the second-most in the division, after Brighton's 18. Liverpool have received 13, making a price of 6/5 for the Blues to receive more cards than their visitors a particularly attractive play.

The Reds are priced at 13/10, though only three teams have committed fewer than Liverpool's 57 fouls in the Premier League this term.

Relations have not always been particularly warm between these rivals, and their last six league meetings have each contained at least four yellow cards. It is 2/7 for over 3.5 match cards, and over 4.5 - which was a winning bet in four of their last five head-to-head games - is 7/10.

In terms of individual players likely to attract the attention of referee Anthony Taylor, Marc Cucurella has committed more fouls than any other player on either side in the top-flight this season, with nine, and he is likely to be in direct competition with Liverpool's livewire forward Mohamed Salah.

The Spaniard is 7/5 to commit two fouls, with Reece James 15/8. Should he be restored to the starting lineup after being rested from the start against Benfica, James could be up against Cody Gakpo, whose 12 league fouls won are the joint-fifth highest this season.

Gakpo is 8/13 to be fouled on at least two occasions. That has not occurred in any of his last three league games, but it did happen in seven of the previous eight, including against Chelsea in May.

But our preferred selection is to back Cucurella to commit at least a pair of fouls, with that bet proving a winner in three of Chelsea's last four matches.

Isak primed to strike

Tuesday's defeat in Turkiye represented the first time Liverpool had failed to score in all competitions this season (10 games) and, looking further back, it was their first time being shut out since a 1-0 Champions League last-16 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in March, an astonishing 20 matches ago.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Given Chelsea's defensive selection issues, it looks unlikely that the Reds will fire another blank - they are 1/7 for over 0.5 goals in West London.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

And with Palmer out for Chelsea, it is no surprise that three Reds players lead the goalscorer betting. Salah, who spent a season and a half at Stamford Bridge between 2013 and 2015, is 13/10 to score anytime and 9/2 to net first.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Salah has scored against his former club for Liverpool five times in the Premier League, though only once away from home. The additions of Ekitike, Isak and Wirtz have caused the Reds to be less reliant on Salah, though, and his averages of 2.05 shots, 1.08 shots on target and 0.33 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes this season (in all competitions) are all his lowest in any campaign with Liverpool.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

With that in mind, though Salah still remains lethal in front of goal, a price of 4/7 for him to attempt at least three shots may not offer enough value.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Isak, meanwhile, is 5/4 to score anytime and 9/2 to net first, and given he - like Salah - did not enter the Galatasaray game until the second half, it appears likely the Swede will start this one.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

He has scored on each of his last two top-flight appearances at Stamford Bridge, netting for Newcastle United in 2023/24 and 2024/25 defeats. 1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Isak's anytime goalscorer price looks better than the 6/4 available for Ekitike to net, given the Frenchman played the majority of Tuesday's game before limping off with a knock.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Chelsea's João Pedro is next in the betting at 2/1, and that price could hold some attraction given Palmer's absence. It is 13/10 for a penalty to be awarded, and since the Brazilian's Premier League debut for Brighton in 2023, only Salah (15), Palmer (13) and Erling Haaland (10) have scored more spot-kicks in the competition than his nine.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Gakpo is 12/5 to find himself on the scoresheet, and only Ekitike (20) has attempted more than his 19 shots for Liverpool this season. However, the fact Gakpo is yet to have an Opta-defined 'big' chance and has amassed just 1.03 expected goals (xG) hints at a tendency to try pot-shots, so perhaps a price of 10/11 for the Dutchman to fire off three shots is enticing. 1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Another intriguing pick could be Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández, whose 12 shots in all competitions this season are the most of any player in Maresca's squad. The Argentina international has averaged 1.4 attempts per 90 this term and is 8/11 to hit the target once. Alejandro Garnacho is 4/9 in the same market and has averaged 2.35 efforts per 90 since joining Chelsea.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Chelsea may be keen to fire off as many efforts as possible, given Liverpool will be without first-choice goalkeeper Alisson after he limped out of the Galatasaray defeat. Back-up Giorgi Mamardashvili will make his Premier League debut, and he is 11/8 to make four or more saves.1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Alisson missed 10 Premier League games last season, and though Liverpool won seven of those, even recording a higher win ratio (70%) than they did with him in their starting lineup (64.3%), the Reds conceded more in his absence. They shipped one goal per game with the Brazilian between the sticks, compared to 1.2 without him. 1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Goals expected at Stamford Bridge1070,"469777927":0,"469777928":1}">

Three of Liverpool's six Premier League games this season have been decided by a winning goal scored in the 90th minute or later, two for (versus Newcastle and Burnley) and one against (at Palace). Their victories over Bournemouth (4-2) and Arsenal (1-0), meanwhile, were decided by goals scored in the 83rd minute or later.

They have not looked like a team in total control, with four of their six league games this term containing goals at both ends and the same number featuring over 2.5 goals.

Chelsea have been identical in that regard, seeing four of their six league matches contain both over 2.5 goals and goals at both ends.

Both Liverpool (12 for, seven against) and Chelsea (11 for, eight against) have seen a total of 19 goals scored in their league games this term - only matches featuring Manchester City, Brentford and West Ham (all 20) contained more goals through the opening six matchdays.

Now read Mark O'Haire's Notebook for more Premier League MD7 tips