Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Moises a mega goalscorer price at 8/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 9...

Chelsea v Sunderland Tip - Caicedo on fire this season

Chelsea v SunderlandSaturday, 15:00

Only Manchester City have taken more points at home in the Premier League than 2/5 Chelsea (34 versus 33) with the Blues returning 10 wins, three draws and just one defeat at Stamford Bridge. It's been a similar story this season with only Man City (17) having scored more than Chelsea (16) and this game comes hot off the back of a five-goal performance against Ajax in the Champions League. With Sunderland the biggest overachievers defensively in the league (six goals conceded versus 9.73 xG against), it makes sense to get Chelsea onside. The Black Cats are conceding the fourth most shots away from home (15).

Chelsea have scored the most goals in the league from set-pieces so far with eight and Trevoh Chalobah makes for an interesting candidate to score at 7/1 with five Premier League goals since the beginning of last season. Instead, Moises Caicedo is the bet at a bigger price given plays further forward. He's scored four goals in just 10 starts already this season and finished last season with a goal in the Conference League Final.

Newcastle v Fulham Tip - Guimaraes gunning for goals

Newcastle v FulhamSaturday, 15:00

Fulham come into this having lost their last three matches in the Premier League and worryingly have failed to create more than one expected goal in five of their nine games, including all four away from home. Fulham beat Newcastle home and away last season but on current form it is understandable why the Magpies are as short as 6/10. Since Newcastle have played with a recognised striker in new signing Nick Woltemade, they've won four of seven matches compared to no wins in four without him.

One player who always seems to flourish at St James' Park is captain and talisman Bruno Guimaraes. He's scored in six of his last 16 league matches at home and it's no surprise when he averages 1.35 shots-per-game at home versus 1.05 shots-per-game away. His goals have come against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd, Bournemouth and Leicester to show he's capable against anyone.

Man Utd v Brighton Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Man Utd v BrightonSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Brighton were once again involved in a game featuring over 2.5 goals last weekend, despite opponents Newcastle having a strong trend for Under 2.5 (nine of their previous 11 games), so we still managed to crack three or more goals and produce yet another winner for the column. It was sound logic to look a bit deeper at Newcastle, especially with a small sample size, knowing their centre-forward issues.

What it does mean is it's now 18 of Brighton's last 23 Premier League games that have seen three or more goals (78%), which is a fantastic record for Overs backers like me, and now just ONE clean sheet in their last 20 league games! They come up against a Man Utd side that spent big on forwards in the summer and that looks to be paying dividends with five of their last six games having seen Over 2.5 goals winners. The line is set at 2.75 this weekend, so we'll win half our bet if there's three goals and get a full winner if there's four or more.

Brentford v Liverpool Tip - Back goals at both ends

Brentford v LiverpoolSaturday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

There were huge question marks surrounding Liverpool at the beginning of the week following four straight defeats. However, they bounced back on Wednesday night with a 5-1 demolition at Frankfurt in the Champions League. Perhaps some context is needed for the defeats, with three of them being due to very late goals and the other a controversial penalty. However, it is true Liverpool have been somewhat ragged this season, but perhaps that's understandable when integrating new players all over the pitch.

They come up against a Brentford side agains whom they have a great record, having won their last five meetings conceding just once. But, we know the Reds have had issues conceding this season, shipping two or more goals in 10 of their last 15 games excluding the League Cup. Brentford to score two or more is 9/5 but it's difficult to know what we're going to get with them under Keith Andrews, as they were very passive against Man City, managing just six shots and it was only seven against Chelsea. So let's add Liverpool to score two or more to the bet to make it an enticing 13/4 after Wednesday's confidence booster and averaging 1.89 xG going forward per-game in the league.

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Recommended bets

Back Moises Caicedo anytime goalscorer @ 8/1

Back Bruno Guimaraes anytime goalscorer @ 9/2

Back Over 2.75 goals in Man Utd v Brighton @ 1.80

Back Both Teams to Score Two or More Goals @ 13/4

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