Scurrile xGoals at Bayern gala: Why the 5:1 in Leipzig is deceptive | OneFootball

FC Bayern clearly won the Bundesliga top match at RB Leipzig 5:1 and thus set another exclamation mark. On paper, it was a demonstration of power, a statement victory for the league leaders. However, a look at the expected goals statistics reveals a surprisingly different picture – and makes it clear how thin the line between control and loss of control actually was in this match

In purely statistical terms, the game was evenly matched for a long time, with Leipzig ending up with an xGoals value of 3.0 and Bayern 3.29. The difference is minimal – and stands in striking contrast to the clear final result. While Munich made the most of their chances, the Saxons lacked the necessary efficiency at crucial moments

In the first half in particular, RB Leipzig could – and perhaps even should – have made much more of their opportunities. Bayern looked unusually vulnerable in the early stages, while Leipzig had several top-class chances and repeatedly put the record champions‘ defence under pressure. The fact that the score was „only“ 1:0 at the break was rather flattering for the visitors from Leipzig’s point of view

RB coach Ole Werner summed it up on the Sky microphone after the game: „If you want to get something against Bayern, then you probably have to score more than one goal from your chances.“ This was precisely the core problem for the Saxons. The chances were there, but the quality of the finishes was not consistent enough

Bayern turn up the heat after the break

photo: IMAGO

The game changed after the break. Bayern increased the pressure, acted more purposefully and used their individual class. Serge Gnabry equalized, Harry Kane put the record champions ahead – and then the game tipped noticeably

Michael Olise provided the decisive impetus. The Frenchman came off the bench and immediately changed the game. He tore Leipzig’s defence apart with his dynamism, vision and precision. Three assists and a goal of his own made Olise the clear match winner of the evening. Further goals from Jonathan Tah and Aleksandar Pavlovic ultimately ensured a result that only partially reflected the actual course of the game

Despite the clear defeat, Ole Werner was also nuanced in his analysis after the final whistle. „Bayern pressed more in the second half, we were challenged more in deeper defending – but we still had very, very good goal-scoring opportunities up to 1-3,“ explained the Leipzig coach. Particularly noteworthy: „My press officer just told me that we were ahead in chances/xgoals until the 80th minute.“

Up to that point, he had been „very, very satisfied“, Werner emphasized. „The fact that the game then ended 1:5 is unusual.“ Words that underline how brutally efficient FC Bayern were in the final phase

Efficiency beats statistics

In the end, the xGoals tell a different story than the result. But that is precisely where FC Bayern’s great strength lies at the moment. Munich do not need a multitude of chances to decide games. They punish mistakes, make the most of their moments and, with players like Kane and Olise, have the individual quality to turn games around within minutes

For Leipzig, the 1:5 is a bitter blow and a warning signal despite a decent performance, while for Bayern it is further proof that they are currently in a league of their own not only in terms of their play, but also mentally and in terms of efficiency.