Sky Sports expert’s verdict on Newcastle United – A struggle to disagree with much of this | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at home to Everton.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could/should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Everton game.

“Only once in Premier League history has a team entered the final day in a Champions League place and failed to qualify.

“Newcastle will be there with a win.

“A point will be enough if Forest vs Chelsea ends in a draw or Villa fail to win.

“Eddie Howe’s team are a reliable bunch at home, winning their last six at St James’ Park, scoring 20 goals.

“If they win this, it will be their most points (41) and most wins (13) at home in a Premier League campaign since 2003.

“It’s hard to see anything but the 1/3 with Sky Bet landing – but how do we get a palatable price?

“The goalscorer market looks the place to be with Sandro Tonali the standout at 11/2 to score anytime. He has scored three in his last five home games as the Toon faithful do seem to inspire him.

“Score Prediction: Newcastle 3 Everton 0”

Interesting analysis, as always, from the Sky Sports expert.

Struggle to disagree with much, if any, of that.

As the Sky Sports man points out, United winning all of their last six St James’ Park Premier League matches and scoring 20 goals. Sandro Tonali scoring brilliant goals against Brentford and Man U, whilst he also finished off a superb team move inside two minutes against Chelsea in the last home match.

Everton can’t move up or down in the table on the final day and have seen some of their best defenders ruled out. Jarrad Branthwaite and Seamus Coleman joining James Tarkowski on the injured list.

David Moyes revealed those last two absentees on Friday at his press conference.

When looking at this Everton season, fair to say that defence has been by far their biggest strength.

Only three Premier League clubs have conceded less than the 44 Everton have conceded in the 37 Premier League rounds of matches.

The Toffees have been as good defensively as they have been poor at the other end, only the three relegated teams have scored less than the feeble 41 goals that Everton have managed.

Tarkowski and Branthwaite in the heart of the defence have been key to Everton’s survival and Jarrad Branthwaite in particular,  is by some distance Everton’s biggest asset, the stats speak for themselves.

In the 28 Premier League games he has started this season, Everton have conceded only 28 goals in 28 games and have a record of won 9, drawn 12 and lost 7.

In the 9 Premier League matches when Branthwaite hasn’t started, Everton have conceded 16 goals in 9 games and have won only one of the nine matches, drawing 3 and losing 5.

It would be great to see Sandro Tonali (or any of his teammates) score early on once again, to settle a few nerves. In these last six Premier League matches at St James’ Park, 12 of Newcastle’s 20 goals have come before the break, averaging two in the first half of these six games.