Supercomputer issues final Championship play-off prediction ft Derby County, Wrexham & Hull City | OneFootball

Opta's supercomputer has revealed who will make the Championship play-offs out of Derby County, Hull City, and Wrexham AFC on the final day...

Coventry City are champions, the relegation picture is clear, meaning that the play-off battle is all that is left to be decided. That includes the teams that will miss out on second but also Derby County's fight with Wrexham and Hull City for sixth.

One of Ipswich Town, Millwall, Middlesbrough, or Southampton will finish second but each of those sides has at least confirmed their place in the Championship play-offs. Wrexham's defeat to Coventry City has kept Derby County's hopes alive as we head into the final day of the campaign.

Hull City have occupied a place inside the top six for a lengthy period, having been third after 30 games of the season. They were also in the play-offs for each week between the 20th and 43rd matchdays of the season. Since a 2-1 win away to Wrexham in mid-March, they have steadily declined.

Their one and only win in the last eight league games is against Sheffield Wednesday, with four draws and three defeats. Wrexham, meanwhile, have been in either sixth or seventh since matchday 29 but have won just four in 10 league games since three in a row in February.

Therefore, Derby have been in the best form. They have lost four and won seven in the last 11, with their four defeats being Millwall, Coventry, Southampton, and the in-form Norwich City. They have a home game against out-of-form Sheffield United on final day, too.

Derby County's chances of beating Hull City and Wrexham to play-off place ranked

Neutrals, fans, and pundits alike will all have their own view of what is likely to happen on final day for the automatic promotion places and for the teams who will fight it out in the play-offs next week. Only one of Hull, Wrexham, and Derby can make it in.

Opta have also had their say on the final table, predicting Ipswich as the likeliest to join Coventry in finishing second and giving them a 77% chance of doing so. The race for sixth is predicted to be tight, with Opta projecting 71.48, 71.46, and 70.67 xPts for the three teams in the running from their 1000s of simulations.

Interestingly, the team with the highest xPts figure is Hull, but the team with the best chance is Wrexham at 45.48%. That means Hull are backed as more likely to beat Norwich but that more outcomes see Wrexham make it in.

Derby have almost a one in five chance and that is still significant, even if their form compared to their peers perhaps has fans believing they have an even stronger bet than that.

Why the play-offs are the best way to go up over automatic promotion

Winning the play-offs is widely seen as the most rewarding route to the Premier League because it combines drama with financial gain. Simply as an occasion, the final at Wembley Stadium is unmatched in the EFL calendar.

It is often dubbed the richest game in football. The one-off nature creates a high-stakes spectacle that builds lasting memories. However, financially, promotion via the play-offs delivers the same rewards as automatic spots in terms of broadcast revenue, sponsorship growth, and parachute payments.

It is often exceeding £150 million over time and can transform a club’s trajectory, even if they are relegated soon after. There’s also a psychological edge and being a part of them is exciting, but navigating pressure-filled knockout ties can build a level of resilience heading into the top flight.

Put simply, it’s not the easiest route, but it’s the most exhilarating one. Each team knows what is at stake and perhaps Wrexham and Hull will find a way to win following their poor form. Perhaps Derby will continue their excellent run and beat either to the punch.