Wednesday's Champions League Tips: Back 5/1 Dortmund double and 5/2 Vini Jr special | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Wednesday's Champions League tips include backing 5/2 Vinicius Junior stats bet in Real Madrid v Benfica

Paul Higham fancies a big 5/1 shot on Dortmund's second leg at Atalanta, while Vinicius Junior is the subject of a 5/2 Bet Builder as Real Madrid host Benfica in Wednesday's Champions League play-offs...

Back a Guirassy goal again for Dortmund

Atalanta v DortmundWednesday 25 February, 17:45 kick-offLive on TNT Sports 3 & Discovery+First leg: 0-2

It's been seven years since a team overturned a two-goal deficit from the first leg in the Champions League but Atalanta have won four straight at home and won three of their last six in Bergamo by two goals or more. They're 23/20 to win the second leg but 9/2 to qualify for the next round, which shows you the size of the task.

The problem will be keeping quiet this Dortmund attack quiet which came from 2-0 down to draw at Leipzig at the weekend. They're only 11/5 to win the match, but they don't have to and a 14/5 draw would do just nicely for the Germans who will be aware they lost their last away day in the competition 2-0 at Spurs (albeit thanks to an early red card).

Spurs were the only team to stop Dortmund scoring away from home all season so chances are they'll score. With Atlanta having the fewest shots on target of anyone left in the competition, I don't fancy their chances of out-gunning the visitors, especially since, with just one first-half goal in the competition, Atalanta will find it tough to make a strong start. I like the half-time draw at 13/10.

But preference is for a Bet Builder, backing 2+ cards for both sides. It landed in the first leg and the stakes are even higher now. Add in Serhou Guirassy to score again, as he did in the first leg to make it 17 in 24 games. Eventually Atalanta will have to go for it and that makes his chances of scoring even greater.

Juventus v GalatasarayWednesday 25 February, 20:00 kick-offLive on TNT Sports 3 & Discovery+First leg: 2-5

There were plenty of upset results last week, and Juventus getting thrashed in Turkey was right up there. Losing 2-0 at home to Como wasn't exactly the ideal warm-up either as they look to become just the fifth team to overcome a three-goal deficit. Juve are 7/2 to qualify and traditionally a team like Galatasaray and their notorious away form would make them prime candidates for an upset.

But Gala have lost by 3+ goals just once in their last 27 away games, while Juve have managed 3+ goals in two of 12 homes games - although they have both come in the last six games and include a 3-0 over champions Napoli. The visitors missing the injured Victor Osimhen also makes this a trickier one to call.

I've not got much doubt Juve will win the game but a Gala goal should finish off the tie and even without Osimhen they have enough quality to get one, as the hosts have to basically go flat-out from the start. And you know what you're going to get from Galatasaray, who'll be spoiling the game from the start. Against a side desperate to get on with things, that spells cards.

Back vital Vitinha in PSG win

PSG v MonacoWednesday 25 February, 20:00 kick-offLive on TNT Sports 2 & Discovery+First leg: 3-2

Another barnstorming first leg saw Monaco go 2-0 up, PSG miss a pen then go 2-2 before getting a winner after Monaco went down to 10 me, so absolutely anything could happen in the return fixture. Both sides scored three in wins at the weekend too so hopefully we'll have another toe-to-toe shootout.

Monaco are as big as 19/2 to win the match, and 12/1 to go on to qualify for the next round, as you have to think they missed their chance in the first leg when ahead. They've won just one of 13 at PSG and only one of their past seven Champions League away matches - conceding at least twice in all of them. With over 2.5 goals in PSG's last five games and over 3.5 in five of Monaco's past six, we'll surely have another flurry of goals.

We'll juice the price up a bit with Vitinha to hit the target, as the midfielder comes alive in the Champions League. He's got just one goal from 10 shots in target in 22 league games, but in Europe he's scored five from 12 shots on target in just nine matches. Four of those goals and nine shots on target came at home.

Side with 5/2 Vinicius Jr stats bet

Real Madrid v BenficaWednesday 25 February, 20:00 kick-offLive on TNT Sports 1 & Discovery+First leg: 1-0

Controversy is never too far away from Jose Mourinho, and it'll be a testy atmosphere when he returns to Real Madrid after the Vinicius Jr racism row last week, which sees Gianluca Prestianni banned from this return leg. In footballing terms, Real have won six on the spin at home and six of eight home Champions League games - 1/20 on them qualifying tells the story here.

It is only 1-0 though, and Benfica did win 4-2 at the end of the group stage, but surprisingly Mourinho has gone nine games without a win in UCL knockouts (L5 D4). Madrid's defensive record at home might give Benfica hope, with 14 of the last 15 UCL visitors to the Bernabeau scoring. Winning the game is another matter.

So a Real win with both teams to score at 9/5 would be the result bet - but you've got to think Vinicius Jr will be all over this game, and two shots on target and three fouls won should be the bare minimum really given how fired up he'll be and how Benfica will no doubt target him from the start. For reference he's had four shots on target and been fouled nine times in the two meetings with Benfica already this season.

Recommended bets

Back Juventus win and both teams to score plus over 4.5 cards @ 7/2

Back Vinicius Jr 2+ shots on target & fouled 3+ times @ 5/2