West Ham v Tottenham: Pick Paqueta to make a mark | OneFootball

English Premier League

Dave Tindall previews West Ham v Tottenham on Saturday evening

West Ham have a good recent home record against Spurs and Dave Tindall is looking at a pro Hammers bet for Saturday evening's London derby...

West Ham v TottenhamSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Have West Ham turned a corner?

After starting the Premier League season in demoralising fashion with a 3-0 loss at newly-promoted Sunderland and a 5-1 home walloping by Chelsea, Graham Potter's future looked ropey to say the least ahead of West Ham's trip to Nottingham Forest before the international break.

There was indeed a parting of the ways after that match at the City Ground but after the Hammers struck three late goals to pull off a surprise 3-0 victory, it didn't involve Potter. Instead, it was the man in the other dugout, Forest boss Nuno Espirito Santo, who became the first Premier League manager to get the boot.

That shows how fast football moves and the pressure will soon be back on Potter if this latest London derby goes the wrong way.

Tottenham looking to bounce back

Was Tottenham's 1-0 home defeat to Bournemouth a blip or more a reversion to the mean? Winning all three opening games would have been some start for new boss Thomas Frank but perhaps also giving a false impression of where their true level is right now.

In truth, Bournemouth completely outplayed them. But let's not gloss over Spurs' 2-0 win at Manchester City the week before, their 3-0 home victory over Burnley and even the Super Cup defeat to Champions League winners PSG where they led 2-0 with five minutes left before finally losing on penalties.

It's amazing how quickly a Premier League table takes shape and Tottenham will hope that they can maintain their current position of fourth, behind leaders Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.

Of course, one huge change is that they'll play this match without departed chairman Daniel Levy watching on. In addition, new signings Xavi Simons and Randal Kolo Muani could add some sparkle if given their Tottenham debuts.

Hammers have decent history v Spurs at home

West Ham are 5/2 to make it back-to-back Premier League wins, something they've only done once since Potter took over in January. The second leg of that two-game win sequence came via a home win over a doomed Leicester side so this is obviously a much tougher ask.

Tottenham are 21/20 to get back to winning ways while The Draw is 13/5.

If recent history is anything to go by, get on the draw. In fact, get on the 1-1 draw at 11/2 as that's been the result in this fixture at the London Stadium for each of the last three seasons.

Going further back and Tottenham haven't won at West Ham since 2019 so a combination of those head-to-heads and the hosts' morale-boosting win at Forest makes me a little twitchy about backing a Spurs victory which was my initial thought.

The fact that Spurs have won just three of their last 16 London derbies is also off-putting.

Paqueta the pick

Lucas Paqueta is enjoying himself again after playing a chunk of last season with the threat of a ban hanging over him.

He's already scored twice and I'm going to back him here to have a shot on target from outside the box.

The Brazilian has done just that twice in West Ham's three Premier League games so far, one of those pinged in from 30 yards to give his team the lead over Chelsea before it all went wrong.

In other words, he's not afraid to pull the trigger and with Spurs playing deeper under Frank, that increases the likelihood of him looking to have a go from distance rather than slip in a through ball behind a high line.

In Betfair's Match Ups we can take Paqueta to have more shots on target than six team-mates and nine Spurs players. The Brazilian is 9/5 to beat Pape Matar Sarr's target and 13/5 to beat former Hammer Mohammed Kudus. You can even put both together in a Match Ups Multi at 7/2.

Back bookings and BTTS in Bet Builder

Tottenham were third in the Fair Play table last season while Frank's Brentford were second so both manager and players are very much towards the cleaner end of the spectrum. Meanwhile, the bookings make-ups in West Ham's three top-flight games this season read: 0-1-1.

Saturday's ref Jarred Gillett has flashed just five yellows in two games so for part one of a Bet Builder we can go Under 3.5 cards which is 6/5 if played as a single.

12/5.

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Recommended bets

1pt - Lucas Paqueta to have 1 or more shots on target from outside the box @ 5/2

1pts - Back Under 3.5 cards and Both teams to Score on Bet Builder @ 12/5

Dave's Profit/Loss

Staked: 6pts

Returned: 0pts

P/L: -6pts