Athletico-PR v Bahia tops Brasileirão round as Flamengo defend lead, Renato Gaúcho returns | OneFootball

Athletico-PR and Bahia, level on 46 points in third and fourth, meet in the weekend's standout match for third place. Flamengo, one point clear at the top, host Bragantino, while Palmeiras visit Grêmio as Renato Gaúcho returns as head coach.

According to Globo.com, a draw between Athletico-PR and Bahia could open the door for Fluminense to take third, as they travel to Corinthians. Bragantino have been tricky away, often sharing the points on their travels.

On Sunday, Grêmio face Palmeiras at 11h. The 16h slot features Corinthians v Fluminense and Vitória v Cruzeiro, then the round closes with Athletico-PR v Bahia at 19h30.

Favoritismos, produced with economist Bruno Imaizumi, assesses all 10 Série A ties using recent form and stylistic profiles. It weighs the last 60 days as home or away and the last six matches overall, plus aerial and ground strengths in attack and defence.

Its probabilities draw on an expected goals model built from 129,089 shots across 5,205 Brasileirão games since 2013. Inputs include distance, angle, venue, play origin, body part, whether struck first time, relative squad market values, game minute and scoreline.

Set-piece penalties, direct free-kicks and Olympic goals are excluded when gauging aerial or ground influence. The model adjusts for stronger and weaker foot. From the edge of the D, about seven in 100 shots go in, an xG of 0.07, which accumulates across a match.

Source: Globo.com

“Artificial intelligence was used to assist in creating this article based on reporting from the original source quoted.”