Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal: Back Gunners to grind out the win | OneFootball

Arsenal go to Germany in the last 16 on Wednesday

Arsenal are chasing a quadruple and Kevin Hatchard believes their defensive strength will come to the fore when they visit Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday...

Bayer Leverkusen v ArsenalWednesday 11 March, 17:45Live on TNT Sports

Leverkusen running out of steam

Since the turn of the year Bayer Leverkusen have been losing momentum, and when key players like Alex Grimaldo are openly talking about how tired they are with over two months of the season remaining, that has to be a massive concern for the club's bosses. Coach Kasper Hjulmand has steadied the ship after a disastrous start to the season under Erik ten Hag, but ultimately the Dane will be judged on whether Bayer can qualify for next season's Champions League.

Saturday's clumsy 3-3 draw at Freiburg did Die Werkself no favours in that regard, and Bayer are sixth with nine matchdays left, three points off the Champions League spots. In 2026, Bayer have claimed just four league wins in 10 attempts, and a 2-0 aggregate playoff win over Olympiakos was solid rather than spectacular.

This is not the double-winning team of Xabi Alonso, and it's unfair to judge it based on those performance levels. Florian Wirtz, Granit Xhaka, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Amine Adli, Piero Hincapie, Odilon Kossounou, Lukas Hradecky and Victor Boniface have all left, while Nathan Tella's season has been heavily disrupted by injury.

Leverkusen's home form should, however, be respected. They are unbeaten in their last six competitive games at the BayArena, and they have conceded just one goal in that spell. They have lost just two of their last 12 home matches.

Patrik Schick hopes to be fit enough for a recall after injury, but Christian Kofane has been scoring goals of late, and is desperate to retain the centre-forward role. First-choice keeper Mark Flekken is still out, as are Loic Bade, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Lucas Vazquez and Arthur.

Gunners must cut through tedious style debate

The endless discussion of Arsenal's method of winning games shows no signs of abating, whether it's being sustained by piqued managers like Brighton's Fabian Hürzeler or by misty-eyed nostalgia merchants who seem to have painted Manchester City strangling the life out of teams in a utopian shade. Football in the past was apparently more fun, with mavericks galore and title winners flooding forward with abandon.

Arsenal need to block out this mind-numbing noise and keep their eyes on the prizes. Mikel Arteta has only won the FA Cup so far as the Gunners' manager, so if he needs to bludgeon his way to more silverware by any means necessary, so be it.

Arsenal have been the most impressive team in the Champions League so far. They won all eight of their league-phase games, including a stirring success against Bayern Munich. A repeat of that clash in the final wouldn't be a huge surprise. Across those eight UCL matches, Arsenal scored 23 goals, netting at least twice in every game. In the Premier League, the North London giants have scored 33 goals from open play, and only Manchester City have netted more.

Arteta rested players for the 2-1 win at Mansfield in the FA Cup, and some of those stars should return here. David Raya, Gabriel, Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice are all in line to start, while William Saliba is racing to recover from an ankle knock. Kai Havertz could feature against the club where he made his name.

Arsenal to build narrow first-leg lead

The visitors are the better team by some distance here, but Bayer's ability to keep the ball for long periods should mean they aren't completely overwhelmed. I like the look of the 6/5 on offer for Arsenal to win and Under 3.5 Goals, which includes the 0-1, the 0-2, the 0-3 and the 1-2, and all four outcomes seem eminently plausible.

If you look at Leverkusen's games against other teams in the top six in the Bundesliga, four of six have stayed under the 3.5 Goals line, and Bayer lost all four of those matches.

Jaded Grimaldo could struggle v Saka

Alex Grimaldo is one of the few key members of the double-winning side who has stayed ay Bayer, and he's being run into the ground. The Spanish full-back conceded three fouls at Freiburg on Saturday, his highest tally of the season. Grimaldo will be up against Bukayo Saka on Wednesday evening, and Saka has been fouled at least twice in six of his last eight competitive starts.

A less than fully fit Grimaldo could get into trouble against Saka, so I'll back him to commit at least two fouls at a hefty 2/1.

It's a Bet £10 Get £10 week on Betfair, so if you're looking to take advantage of that offer, then you might want to double up two Grimaldo fouls with Saka to be fouled twice on the Bet Builder, which comes out at around 5/2.

Recommended bets

Back Arsenal to win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 6/5

Back Alex Grimaldo to commit 2+ fouls @ 2/1