Best-case scenario: How Liverpool could secure Champions League qualification at Old Trafford | OneFootball

Since the resumption of the Premier League after the international break, things could hardly have gone any better for Liverpool in the top flight.

At the beginning of April, the Reds were clinging to the fifth and final Champions League berth, just one point ahead of Chelsea and three clear of Brentford and Everton.

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Hard-fought wins over Fulham and our Merseyside rivals, coupled with the chasing pack all dropping points, have extended the gap on sixth place to seven points as of Sunday night. With just five matches to play, that appears to be a commanding position.

Who do Liverpool face in their final five matches?

Liverpool face a tough run of games to finish out the season, with a visit from bogey side Crystal Palace on Saturday and all four of our May opponents currently in the top seven.

Indeed, of the five teams that we still have to face, four won the reverse fixtures back in the autumn, although three of those were away from Anfield.

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When is the earliest Liverpool could secure top-five finish?

As it stands, the Reds need nine more points to be absolutely certain of qualifying for the Champions League, which Opta give them an 89.2% chance of achieving. However, the best-case scenario would see them clinch a top-five finish away to Manchester United in two weeks’ time.

If (albeit a big if) Liverpool win their next two games, and none of the chasing pack are on any more than 51 points, then victory at Old Trafford would ensure that we can breathe easy for the final three matches of the season.

Image via WhoScored

For that to happen, Chelsea, Brentford and Bournemouth would need at least four points in the next fortnight, while Brighton, Everton and Sunderland would require two wins to be mathematically able to catch us.

It helps that two of those teams (Brighton and Chelsea) face each other tonight, with at least one certain to drop points, while the Bees to go Old Trafford next Monday. The following weekend, Fulham and Everton take on title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City respectively.

As it stands, Liverpool have Champions League qualification firmly within their hands. To have it guaranteed with multiple matches to spare would be quite a relief considering how grim the season has been for the most part.

The Reds have margin for error in the race to the finish line, but they mustn’t get complacent and open the door to the chasing pack.