Bundesliga Team Check | Wolfsburg’s path out of the relegation race | OneFootball

In today’s Get German Football News Bundesliga feature, we’ll be checking in with VfL Wolfsburg. Unlike in some of our other recent Bundesliga check-ups (Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen), the German Wolves aren’t operating under a brand new head coach. Daniel Bauer coached the Lower Saxon Autostädter on an interim basis through four matches in November and December before receiving his permanent trainer appointment shortly before Christmas.

Bauer’s appointment led to some chuckles within German footballing circles as he was considered a nondescript character without an especially inventive personality. The fact that Bauer stabilized this notoriously (and congenitally) unbalanced squad in a simple and somewhat bland 4-2-3-1 system nevertheless did count as something a plus.

Predecessors Niko Kovac and Ralph Hasenhüttl did horrendous jobs exacerbating the squad’s imbalance with egregious over tinkering. Poor Paul Simonis simply had to clue what to do with all the high-priced talent square-pegs that didn’t come anywhere close to fitting into the round holes he inherited. Bauer at least got the team into a reasonable rhythm.

How did the wheels come off?

A confluence of problems began to accumulate over the Christmas break. Central defender Denis Vavro’s striking incident during a charity match in his native Slovakia seemed a harbinger of the instability to come. Wolfsburg opened up 2026 Bundesliga play with a lopsided loss against Bayern Munich during which they set an ignominious Bundesliga own-goals record.

Bauer executed a quick rebound with a Bundesliga victory over St. Pauli just a few days later, but then promptly lost his only reliable goal-scorer Dzenan Pejcinovic to a foot injury. Pejcinovic made an unexpected quick comeback, but hasn’t scored or indeed turned in a decent match yet. Mohamed Amoura – once again disciplined by the club for inappropriate behavior – hasn’t been able to step into the breach just yet.

While Bauer faced all of these problems, the VfL front office fought desperately to address the squads needs throughout the January transfer window. As GGFN noted in our extensive Wolfsburg Transfer Primer section, finances currently play much more of a role than one might think for this non 50+1 side.

Germany’s green company team, at present, isn’t bankrolled by the most stable of corporate entities. A serious issue facing current sporting director Pirmin Schwegler and his predecessor Sebastian Schindzielorz in the last two transfer windows concerns the fact that most clubs still assume that they are.

Schwegler and Schindzielorz fought hard to negotiate the price of new additions down to reasonable rates. As the January transfer deadline loomed, Schwegler and his staff fought through many failed transfers while Wolfsburg went three league fixtures without a win.

Did the Wolfsburg front office come through?

Yes. Impressively so. The deadline day additions of centre-backs Jeanuël Belocian (€2m loan fee from Leverkusen) and Jonas Adjetey (€10m purchase from Basel) at least proved that Schwegler and top personnel boss Peter Christiansen could get the job done.

That being said, the VWers happen to be seriously over leveraged now. In addition to Adjetey and Belocian, the signing of Japanese attacker Kento Shiogai (€10m) and the permanent purchase of fullback Saël Kumbedi (€6m) constitute big outlays.

The VfL administrative team were able to recoup some modest loan fees for Andreas Skov Olsen (Rangers) and Mathys Angely (Anderlecht), but such six-figure fees barely lodge a dent in the club’s estimated €30m 2025/26 transfer deficit.

Wolfsburg are now the most over leveraged club in the Bundesliga. With a roster of 33 active professionals, the club also largest on-payroll squad in the German top division. A huge gamble has been undertaken here. Relegation could seriously sink this project.

Will there still be administrative changes at Wolfsburg?

Rumors are beginning to circulate that the supervisory board is preparing to sack managing director Peter Christiansen. The Dane stands as the last lone survivor of this season’s housecleaning that saw head coach Simonis and sporting director Schindzielorz dismissed.

Christiansen himself has declared that he’s ready to depart and it makes little sense for him to stay. Current sporting director Schwegler may feel more comfortable working with his old boss Alexander Rosen of Hoffenheim, who has been without a job since getting the controversial TSG sack 18 months ago.

Re-uniting Rosen with Schwegler makes perfect sense. Christiansen may be the last man standing, but that also renders him the last figure to take the fall if history repeats itself. It well might. Christiansen probably finishes out the season, getting cut at the end with one full year salary as severance.

Can Wolfsburg be relegated from the Bundesliga?

Probably the worst case scenario will see Wolfsburg have to contest the promotion-relegation playoff, just as they did at the end of the 2016/17 and 2017/18 campaign. Bundesliga enthusiasts recall these two playoffs as the most disappointing ones (apart from Hoffenheim’s defeat of Kaiserslautern at the end of the 2012/13 season). If Wolfsburg finish the season in 16th place, there doesn’t appear a 2. Bundesliga side apart from Schalke that could truly compete with them.

What will ultimately save Bauer’s team?

To answer this, we’ll take a look at Bauer’s latest set of tactics. Former VfL trainer Niko Kovac’s words of encouragement for his old club weren’t mere lip service. Quite of encouragement can be divined from the latest league loss. Bauer continues to roll out a 4-2-3-1. We’ll take a look at what works, what doesn’t, and what lessons can be learned.

Lineup—WOB (Round 21)

The team responded reasonably well to early to the loss of Kilian Fischer. Vavro kept the defensive ranks organized and did a particularly good job taking Fischer’s replacement Jan Bürger under his aegis. Konstantinos Koulierakis headed home the 1-2 after another one of captain Maximilian Arnold’s brilliant set-piece services. Adam Daghim played a very strong match up front.

Rust meant that Mohamed Amoura’s touch often failed him, but the Algerian international should be back in goal-scoring form soon. VfL substitute Lovro Majer was denied a late equalizer only by the crossbar. Arnold too struck the goal frame late. One also liked what one saw from Jesper Lindstrøm, Mattias Svanberg, and Pejcinovic off the bench late.

What looks to work

Belocian’s excellent tour of duty at left-back counts as immensely important good news. With some luck, Belocian may be able to bracket the defense alongside his old French youth international Kumbedi. This could maybe even allow Aaron Zehnter to move higher up into midfield as part of a 4-3-3, placing Maximilian Arnold on a more comfortable solo axis in midfield.

The steady improvement of hard-luck injury case Kevin Paredes gives one ground for some cautious optimism. Ideally, the 22-year-old will gradually gain confidence on the left before moving over to the right. One can also foresee Paredes maybe eventually filling in as a fullback on either side. The Virginia native, when healthy, certainly possesses the pace to make an impact from a deeper position.

What needs work

Amoura – assuming he can get his act together – typically functions better as a left lane attacker. If Pecjinovic isn’t capable of leading the line, Daghim may be the better option at center forward. Shiogai’s debut in the ten slot simply didn’t work out. The 20-year-old looked lost on the attack charges and turned the ball over far too many times. Bauer possesses many more players who could fill the position better.

What should Wolfsburg’s XI look like?

We’ll attempt to set it up for Bauer, making only one personnel change (Zehnter for Shiogai) and moving a bunch of pieces around. The resulting 4-3-3 lends more variability and quality to the attack. Re-organizing the top axis remains the most important thing. Bauer’s top priority should be drilling Daghim and Paredes in different positions.

Lineup—WOB (Projected)

Off the ball, this can function as a 4-1-4-1 that might be somewhat vulnerable absorbing faster attack builds, yet maintains brutal potential on the counter. Despite the prevalence of attack-minded players on the third axis, one trusts the defending competence of actors like Eriksen and Zehnter. Bauer can even get the team’s muscle memory working to the extent that the over and under laps are exceptionally hard to predict and defend against. 

One hopes to see something like this soon.

GGFN | Peter Weis