Celtic v RB Leipzig Tips: Back Leipzig to win in Scotland | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Stinch is back to preview Celtic v RB Leipzig in the Champions League

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is here to preview Celtic v RB Leipzig in the Champions League on Tuesday...

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Celtic v RB Leipzig (Tues, 20:00)

Celtic and Brendan Rodgers were able to get some credit back in the bank with their 0-0 draw at Atalanta last time out in the Champions League following their 7-1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund on matchday two. However, they were completely outplayed in Bergamo. Atalanta had 66% possession to Celtic's 34%, won the shot count 22 to 4 and created 2.38 expected goals to just 0.26. Based on the xG, Atalanta would be forecasted to win 90% of the time - or odds of 1/9. The Italian side were actually 4/9 to win, suggesting that perhaps Celtic were overrated by the market.

On the face of it RB Leipzig look a big price here at 23/20. Looking at some of their away matches this season it looks like we might be on to something:

Are Celtic significantly better than all of these sides to force Leipzig to odds against? Closing odds are our best indication of the correct price. That's because these odds reflect all the statistics, news, betting activities and market knowledge. The market has taken it's view by investing it's millions.

Both of these sides have recently played the aforementioned Dortmund away and it's interesting to note the disparity in odds:

Based on these odds Dortmund were rated 1.45 goals better than Celtic and 0.35 goals better than Leipzig. Therefore, Leipzig should be rated 1.10 goals better than Celtic. However, the match is not on neutral ground and at Celtic Park so we need to factor in home advantage. Generally, across the top leagues home advantage accounts for 0.35 goals. So 1.10 - 0.35 = 0.75. 0.75 equates to 4/5 yet Leipzig are 23/20.

They actually played each other at Celtic Park in October-22 with Leipzig winning 2-0. Leipzig were odds on that day. Given Leipzig are 23/20 we can actually be risk averse by backing them -0.25 at a healthy 1.95. We should be staking more with the security of getting half of our money back if the game finishes in a draw. Leipzig sit 2nd in the Bundesliga with just one defeat and the best defence in the league. They've lost all three of their Champions League matches, 0-1 and 2-3 at home to Liverpool and Juventus respectively and 2-1 away to Atletico Madrid. No shame given the quality of the opposition involved and they were unlucky not to beat Juve let alone lose, firing in 24 shots and creating 3.37 expected goals.

Since Celtic qualified for the Champions League group stages in 2016 after a period of three years out of them, their record at home reads the following P13 W2 D3 L8. The two victories came against Slovan Bratislava and Feyenoord. They've failed to keep a clean sheet in all 13 games, conceding 27 goals in the process, including the defeat to Leipzig.

Now read Kevin Hatchard's Liverpool v Leverkusen match tipping preview here!

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 4.75ptsReturned: 8.53ptsP/L: +3.78pts

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